Tuesday, March 21, 2017

The road ahead - 4

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth."
—William Jennings (American, 1860-1925)
Word for the day
Overwinter (v)
To pass, spend, or survive the winter, e.g., to overwinter on the Riviera.
Malice towards none
Why no one is highlighting that incorruptible image, frugality of needs and capacity to work round the clock could have worked in Yogi's favor!
 
First random thought this morning
The present round of assembly elections is over, with seemingly stable governments in place in all the five states. Election rhetoric is behind us as all Chief Ministers are talking serious business only.
Hopefully, Delhi MCD election will not become an issue of national importance, and we'll see focus on improving execution, rather than devising new plans and making promises. At least till Gujarat elections are announced later in the summer.

The road ahead - 4

Continuing from the last Friday (see here), the point I am trying to make is that the Empowerment stage if Indian democracy is almost over. The prime minister, the leader of opposition in Lok Sabha, and at least 23 out of the present 31 state Chief Ministers are first generation politicians from very modest socio-economic background.
In past two decades, the process of Enablement of these empowered people has also gathered remarkable pace. Particularly, in past three years a number of programs have been initiated to enable the people. For example, financial inclusion through Jan Dhan, MSME financing through MUDRA, Skill enhancement and training through Skill India, improved accessibility through deeper and wider digital penetration, rural road connectivity, improved air connectivity, expansion and improvement of highway network, social security through crop insurance and universal insurance schemes, augmented electricity supply through higher generation (including focus on renewables), better transmission and distribution and restructuring of SEB finances, etc.
It is now time to begin the Engagement phase of the evolution.
Empirically the Engagement phase is usually the best phase of evolution of a democratic society. In this stage, the economy transcends from the entitlement based structure to contributory structure. Subsidies and grants make way for fees and taxation.
A majority of empowered and enabled population contributes to the economic growth and development through higher taxation and fees for civic services. This is therefore the phase when the demand for physical and social infrastructure, like roads, power, ports, healthcare rises exponentially and investment in these sectors becomes economically and financially profitable.
Historically, for the capital markets this is the golden period. As more and more people join the mainstream economic growth and development process, the savings and investment rates rise on sustainable basis. The demand and supply of capital is usually maximum in this phase of evolution; and so is the capital market activity and wealth creation.
I see some of the recent events as an attempt to trigger the engagement phase of socio-economic development and growth - the most notable being the sudden move to abolish high denomination currency notes forming 86% of currency base in the country. This, in my view, is a courageous attempt to engage a large section of society in the mainstream economic development through better tax compliance.
Complete abolition of subsidy on transportation fuel, and gradual withdrawal of subsidy on cooking fuel, implementation of a uniform GST law, reforms in state electricity distribution, self funded social security through pension and insurance schemes, rationalization of farm and food subsidies and stricter tax compliance standards are some more indicators of the transition.
These are however early days to jump to a trade on this transition, but I am keeping a close watch.

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