Wednesday, March 8, 2017

An Elephant and six blind men

"To God everything is beautiful, good, and just; humans, however, think some things are unjust and others just."
—– Heraclitus (Greek, 544-483BC)
Word for the day
Fusillade (n)
A general discharge or outpouring of anything, e.g., a fusillade of questions.
Malice towards none
Karan Johar, one could appreciate.
But why Abu Azmi is a news?
First random thought this morning
What would be a good development strategy for Indians:
(a)   Be proud about their ancient past, and attempt to recreate it.
(b)   Be proud about their ancient past, and continue to live a life a complacent life.
(c)    Be proud of their ancient past; but begin the development process afresh, keeping in view the present day realties.
(d)   Forget about past, begin the development process from where we stand today.
(e)    Let it be, we are doing just fine.
 

An Elephant and six blind men

Once upon a time, there lived six blind men in a village. One day the villagers told them, "Hey, there is an elephant in the village today."
They had no idea what an elephant is. They decided, "Even though we would not be able to see it, let us go and feel it anyway." All of them went where the elephant was. Every one of them touched the elephant.
"Hey, the elephant is a pillar," said the first man who touched his leg.
"Oh, no! it is like a rope," said the second man who touched the tail.
"Oh, no! it is like a thick branch of a tree," said the third man who touched the trunk of the elephant.
"It is like a big hand fan" said the fourth man who touched the ear of the elephant.
"It is like a huge wall," said the fifth man who touched the belly of the elephant.
"It is like a solid pipe," Said the sixth man who touched the tusk of the elephant.
They began to argue about the elephant and every one of them insisted that he was right. A wise man was passing by and he saw this. He stopped and asked them, "What is the matter?" They said, "We cannot agree to what the elephant is like." Each one of them told what he thought the elephant was like. The wise man calmly explained to them, "All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant. So, actually the elephant has all those features what you all said."
"Oh!" everyone said. There was no more fight. They felt happy that they were all right.
The moral of the story is that there may be some truth to what someone says. Sometimes we can see that truth and sometimes not because they may have different perspective which we may not agree too. So, rather than arguing like the blind men, we should say, "Maybe you have your reasons." This way we don’t get in arguments. (Source:Jain World)
A similar situation has arisen in Indian equity markets in past few months. There is strong disagreement amongst analysts, commentators, investors and observers with respect to valuations and therefore sustainability of current price level.
The disagreement, in our view, is a consequence of limited view each of us seems to be taking.
In my view, under the present circumstances, it would be more appropriate to take a holistic macro view of the market. Views based purely on earnings multiple or assets using extrapolation of near term historical data may probably not lead to accurate conclusions.
A non-linear view considering wider historical perspective and socio-political context may be necessary to make a valid argument for staying invested in Indian equity markets.

No comments:

Post a Comment