"I am
so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying."
-
Oscar Wilde (Irish, 1854-1900)
Word for the day
Polymathy (adj)
Learning in many fields;
encyclopedic knowledge.
(Source:
Dictionary.com)
Malice
towards none
Congress party is losing the plot at unbelievably
fast pace!
Investors should think beyond 2015
The events like summer Char Dham yatra in Uttrakhand hills and
Kumbh Mela etc., provide a good opportunity to meet people from across the
country and assess the general mood.
My team traveled to the holy shrines of Sri Kedarnath and Sri
Badrinath in Garhwal Himalayas last week and had the opportunity to interact
with over 500 people from 13 states.
The key points that emerged from these interactions could be
summarized as follows:
(a) The general mood
of the people could be described best as despondent.
(b) People across the
demographic chart are feeling elevated level of stress, financially as well as
socially.
(c) The disposable income
and tendency to spend is showing a marked improvement over the level seen a few
years ago. The traditional high propensity to save is waning slowly.
(d) The number of private
vehicles visiting the holy shrines has multiplied. The administration has taken
virtually no note of the trend, as could be seen from the parking arrangements.
NGT also need to take a note.
(e) People in general are
satisfied by the incumbent government at the Center. Most people from rural
areas believe Niyat (intention) is more important than the Seerat (Deeds). The
general sense is that PM Modi needs to be given more time and full support.
(f) Most people are amused
by the sudden invigoration of Rahul Gandhi. We could find none who is taking it
seriously or believing this phase of activism to last till 2019 elections.
(g) The people from Bihar
were rather concerned about the prospects of Laly-Nitish combine wining in
Bihar elections. BJP appears to party of choice. People were however skeptic
about the infighting in the state unit.
(h) Akhilesh Yadav appears
to have made a remarkable recovery in UP after 2014 general election rout.
(i) Till a few years back,
the farmers and rural laborers used to be joyous and ecstatic for being able to
undertake this highly propitious pilgrimage. They would not complaint about the
lack of facilities, dishonest transporter and shopkeepers etc. This time it was
not the case. Most people were complaining and appear undertaking the
pilgrimage as a matter of obligation.
(j) The signs of distress
and devastation from the 2013 floods were visible all along the route. The
local people were cynical about government help and alleged huge scam.
My conclusion is that economy might take more than two quarter to
bottom out. The private consumption may dip little further before picking up.
The popular media debate over PM Modi losing popularity may be little
misplaced.
Nifty: Once in eight year opportunity on the anvil
From weekly charts of Nifty it is clear that the market may be
headed down to its major trend support range of 7630-7860 in next 18-20 weeks.
There is a reasonable probability of briefly testing a lower level of 7200 in this
period.
As stated a couple of week ago (see
here), Nifty may peak between 8550-8630 range in next 12 trading sessions.
A fall below 7860 on weekly basis will turn the risk reward extremely
positive and provide a once in 8yr cycle (2013-2021) buying opportunity.
Weekly Nifty chart for past
one decade. Source: Falcon)
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