Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Finding the balance - II

"Always fall in with what you're asked to accept. Take what is given, and make it over your way. My aim in life has always been to hold my own with whatever's going. Not against: with."
-          Robert Frost (American, 1874-1963)
Word for the day
Baleful (adj)
Full of menacing or malign influences; pernicious.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Kirti Azad has thrown hint of traitor within the BJP.
Most observers who keep a close watch on Raisina Hills are claiming to have unraveled the mystery.
What da' ya' say?

Finding the balance - II

As discussed yesterday (see here), the incumbent government needs to find a balance between the laissez-faire model that it advocates and the current variant of Nehruvian socialism model that is in vogue.
The government has however not made any notable progress in achieving this delicate balancing task.
Given the preferences of the newly acquired constituency of socially and economically backwards, who have not been traditional political supporters of BJP, the government's reluctance is understandable.
This reluctance is further compounded by the (a) opposition of core right wing elements within BJP who prefer self-reliance (Swadeshi) over foreign capital and competition; and (b) strong frequent attempts by the opposition parties to regain their core constituency from BJP by constricting all attempts to promote accelerated industrialization allegedly at the expense of public and social sector.
Historically, the economic policies of the governments have been materially influenced by the foreign policy considerations.
During 1950-1990 period, the economic policies followed by India borrowed heavily from the erstwhile eastern bloc.
Post Uruguay round of WTO which coincided with collapse of German Wall and disintegration of USSR, the economic policies of India have been struggling to maintain a balance between the two poles. Unfortunately, we have picked up the bad and ugly of both the worlds. The good being just sprinkled sparsely.
The incumbent prime minister is trying to end this struggle by siding conspicuously and unambiguously with the western world economies who strongly advocate and follow free markets.
The primary positioning of the government thus appears little skewed towards free market (capitalism).
However, on one hand the political compulsions are making government to wear a facade of a socialist dispensation; and on the other hand the internal compulsions of BJP are pushing it towards the agenda of unmindful self-reliance.
In my view, it is still possible to find a balance between all three pull forces e.g., (a) need for capital, technology and market access for faster development and job creation; (b) need for promoting inclusion and sustainability of economic growth and development and (c) need to achieve self-reliance in key areas like defense, food, and modern technology etc.
Unfortunately, this tight ropewalk may disrupt the capital markets in the short period. The free access to foreign capital and technology in manufacturing and infrastructure building area will make many Indian businesses that have been surviving purely due to protectionist policies, completely redundant - causing widespread losses to investors and lenders. High public social spending and increased pressure on corporates to spend more on inclusion could also impact cost of capital and profit margins.

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