Thought for the day
"Our insignificance is often the cause of our safety."
-
Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)
Word for the day
Expatiate
(v)
To write at length
or in considerable detail.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
So much hoopla for Delhi assembly elections!!!
Will someone try examining the viability and profitability of carving out
NDMC area as national capital and merging the rest of Delhi into Haryana and
giving Chandigarh to Punjab?
Would it help in solving the problems of water, electricity, congestion,
and of course cost of governance?
Reflective but not shakin'
"Early in the
morning time
Late in the middle of the night
Whenever this chill comes over me
I wanna hug you with all of my might
That's right and I'm sweatin'
Oh, yeah you got me shakin'
Mmm, you got me sweatin'
Ohh, yeah you got me shakin' girl."
Late in the middle of the night
Whenever this chill comes over me
I wanna hug you with all of my might
That's right and I'm sweatin'
Oh, yeah you got me shakin'
Mmm, you got me sweatin'
Ohh, yeah you got me shakin' girl."
It's a nice warm feeling to be back on my writing desk after a
hiatus' of little over two weeks.
I note that since Christmas not much has changed in terms of benchmark
equity indices; crude and EUR have though broken down. There is a perceptible
change in the market context. Investors are certainly much more circumspect
today as compared to three weeks ago.
Besides the deterioration in global economy due to factor like
deflationary pressures; failure of ECB, BoJ and PoBC in reviving growth through
monetary stimuli, and renewed Eurozone integrity concerns, ostensibly some
domestic concerns are also bothering investors. In my assessment two major
domestic factors are making investors' little jittery.
Firstly, despite successfully projecting a big picture, the
incumbent government has so far been rather parsimonious on specifics that
would spur the domestic growth especially in a challenging global environment.
Some steps that have been taken, e.g., Land Acquisition &
Coal Ordinance and spectrum auction plans do not appear very coherent and
therefore have been subject to severe criticism. The encouraging points are
very few, the most notable one being progress on PMJDY and GST implementation.
The adverse market conditions have also clouded the program to raise resources
through PUS equity sales. To make the matter worse, a stronger USD, along with
fiscal pressure, is keeping the rate cut outlook slightly clouded.
People who had pinned hopes for material reforms in union budget
for FY16 have been earnestly prompted to have a re-think.
Secondly, some voices from government and allied quarters which
sound incongruous to the inclusive development agenda of the government have
also definitely impacted the investors' sentiments.
Though the government has so far done almost nothing that should
raise suspicion of deviation from the committed agenda for faster, sustainable
and inclusive economic development, the sundry public utterances and unmindful
media bytes are being used to project that the PM Narendra Modi may not be in
full control of his government's agenda. Frivolous controversies like the one
relating to movie "PK" have perhaps soured the taste a little bit.
I have been often expressing my views on the first factor and it
is widely known that I am not sanguine about the prospects of economic growth
in near term. Insofar as the second factor is concerned, to me presently it
appears a purely political phenomenon with no economic implications.
I actually spent large part of my Christmas vacation visiting some
major centers of pilgrimage and religious learning to understand the
phenomenon. Tomorrow I would share some interesting learning from this trip.
Later this week I would deal with more mundane issues like market directions
and trading strategy in the near term.
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