Thought for the day
"Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the
shadow."
-
Aesop (Greek, 620-560BC)
Word for the day
Zeitgeist
(n)
The spirit of the
time; the general intellectual and moral state or temper characteristic of any
period of time.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Heard on Rajpath last evening - In 2015 a dozen "famous"
personalities will become" infamous"!
Could you name any five?
Is this a bear talking?
In past two days I have received record number of hate mail. After
lot of quarrelling with some dear friends, I admit that I am being little too
much perceptive & judgmental. And perhaps, as one dear friend and valuable
critic suggested, losing the benefits of naiveté.
I could fully appreciate fans of Amir Khan castigating me for my
profanity over "PK" (even though I did not make any comment about his
acting skills). An apology is due for hurting their sentiments (no pun
intended).
However, I sincerely believe that I do not deserve titles like
"ultra bear", "anti-Modi", and "communist". I
find these imputations rather uncharitable and in need for a due rebuttal.
I have consistently maintained
that in my view the interests of stock market in India are incongruent to the
interests of the real economy. Given that the wealth effect created by stock
market is limited to less than 3% of the population and less than 200 companies
have consistently created wealth for shareholders, focusing too much on stock
market for policy making purpose is inappropriate; which unfortunately has been
the case since 1991. Therefore, I want the focus of economic policies and
reforms to move to the rest 97% people.
I am convinced, with 90% workforce earning, consuming, saving
and investing, stock market can grow exponentially in no time. Whereas under
the current status where less than 10% people are pushing the virtuous wheel of
earning, consuming, saving and investing we can cover only as much distance.
I believe that 5% growth in which 90% population participate is
much superior and sustainable as compared to 9% growth that benefits only a
small section of the society. As per my understanding of economic theory,
enabling larger section of people so that they can improve quality of their
life without government subsidies and corporate alms is in no way
"communist".
Being an eternal optimist and hardcore Bull, I believe that
stock market do best when they follow the real economy. Any digression is only
perversion.
So when I propagate radical shift in policy direction as against
incremental changes being considered by the government, I am actually super
bullish on potential of Indian economy and therefore financial market.
By reminding the PM Modi that his mandate is to improve the
quality of life for 1.25bn Indians and not just 10% metro and smart city
dwellers, I am being his true friend and anti him.
My regular readers know that since 2013, I have been maintaining
that any bullishness if Indian equities will come due to domestic factors and
most volatility and weakness will be caused by global factors.
Given that global financial markets are likely headed for a
"perfect storm" this summer, I am expecting a
deeper correction in Indian equities also. This to me will be an opportunity to
stock up, even by leveraging. Is this a bear talking?
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