Tuesday, January 27, 2015

5km in 2hrs

Thought for the day
"When at last we are sure, You've been properly pilled, Then a few paper forms, Must be properly filled. So that you and your heirs, May be properly billed."
-          Dr. Seuss (American,1904-1991)
Word for the day
Apposite (adj)
Being of striking appropriateness and relevance; very applicable; apt.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
     XYZ Channel
 Breaking News: Our latest survey  - Will President Obama's rally at Rajpath on 26th January help BJP in Delhi Election?
Yes - 55.4%
No - 28.2%
Can't say - 16.4%

5km in 2hrs

To all those who were afraid of global liquidity tightening post conclusion of US Federal Reserve's (Fed) bond buying program (QE-3) last quarter, I have been assuring that in the new world economic order QE is a matter of fact and it is not going away anytime sooner.
Last week, ECB chief Mario Draghi promised to infuse more liquidity in the global economic system during 2015-16 than what the Fed had withdrawn during 2014.
It is for more enlightened minds to debate:
(a)   How much the sense of economic well being currently prevalent in the USA has to do with various QE programs of Fed, especially in light of the results to the contrary in Europe and Japan?
(b)   Whether the malice in European economy has the same characteristics as the malice in US economy which Fed tried to cure through QE?
(c)   Whether the objective of ECB's QE program, viz., achieving close to but not more than 2% inflation could still be achieved if China continues to decelerate and Japan accelerates the export of deflation and emerging markets are crushed by the war of currencies?
(d)   Gold has gained 22% in EUR terms and 18% in CAD terms YTD; So have silver, CHF (Swiss Franc), US, Japanese and German bonds. To an ordinary person like me, Europe looks like following into the same endless pit as Japan did few decades ago. How QE will make it different?
Back home, I heard FM promising to the global investing community at Davos, some big bang announcements in Union Budget for FY16. The public utterances of various government functionaries indicate that the incumbent administration is keen to return to 8% growth path quickly. This is really a noble endeavor and all should support it, even if it means suffering some disadvantages (e.g., higher tax) ad interim.
The newly formed NITI Ayog (Policy Commission), will however have lot to worry about the repercussions of higher growth. Consistent 8% economic growth will mean that our economy will double in 9years. A great and inspiring thought!
But imagine, double the number of houses, cars, motorcycles, schools, hospitals, teachers, doctors, rail & air travelers; double the consumption of water, electricity, coal, petrol, copper, aluminum, zinc, vegetable, fruits, cotton, etc.; and double the garbage and carbon emission in just 9years.
Sitting in front of my TV and watching the special Republic Day Parade, I think, we are not ready. Anyone who has ventured out on Delhi roads in past one week, would agree that just 5year period of 8%+ growth has badly stressed the infrastructure we built over five decades.
So rather than focusing on Big Bang, let's do small things that make life comfortable for the citizenry and side by side build infrastructure for next phase of high growth.

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