Friday, October 13, 2017

My 2 cents for PMEAC

"The sea has neither meaning nor pity."
—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)
Word for the day
Arcadian (n)
Rural, rustic, or pastoral, especially suggesting simple, innocent contentment.
Malice towards none
Why do we expect our elected representatives to be monks?
First random thought this morning
I am tired of chaffing the media report to segregate the May be True, Likely Fake, and Totally Fake news from the Genuine ones.
At first I found Donald Trump's claim of "total fake" egregious. But slowly I am realizing that doubting everything, when you cannot believe everything, is perhaps the best way of slipping through the banalities of the life. So now I should let it be.
I want to trust only what I can see with my bespectacled & blinkered eyes and be blind and deaf to everything else.

My 2 cents for PMEAC

The newly appointed PMEAC has identified the following 10 focus areas to boost economic growth and employment over the next six months, with greater last-mile connectivity:
1.    Economic growth
2.    Employment and job creation
3.    Informal sector and integration
4.    Fiscal framework
5.    Monetary policy
6.    Public expenditure
7.    Institutions of economic governance
8.    Agriculture and animal husbandry
9.    Patterns of consumption and production
10.  Social sector
Like most others, at first I was tempted to find faults and lacunae in the PMEAC strategy and thought process. The temptation becomes even more irresistible when we factor in the fact that PMEAC is quintessentially designed to materially influence the policy direction of the government.
The problem however is that this negative attitude, which unfortunately has been the hallmark of the opposition politics India, does not serve any purpose, except probably giving some sadistic pleasure for couple of hours.
In my view, it is only appropriate that we the people of India, rise above from the influence of cheap political thrills and accept the government of the day as fait accompli. Only this way we shall be able to contribute positively to the nation building. On the contrary if we keep criticizing the incumbent government and wait for the regime to change, we shall only be losing critical time.
What every citizen needs to remember, in my view, is that every year millions of youth pass out of schools & colleges and join the work force. Given the demographic trend, for a decade or so, the number of new job seekers shall increase every year. Moreover, considering the high pace of change in technology the rate of obsolescence of the skill set shall also rise.
In this scenario, if these youth do not get a job appropriate to their skills within one year of their coming to the job market, there is high probability that they will remain underemployed for most of their professional life, because every year a new batch (incremental larger and better equipped) of potential employees will flood the market.
The time for creating job opportunities therefore is a key factor. If we take five years, we would have already wasted millions of youth, who will remain a burden on the society from next many decades.
I shall give my suggestions in these 10 areas in next couple of weeks.
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Thursday, October 12, 2017

Demographic accountability - 2

Thought for the day
"When a lot of remedies are suggested for a disease, that means it can't be cured."
—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)
Word for the day
Astrobleme (adj)
An erosional scar on the earth's surface, produced by the impact of a cosmic body, as a meteorite or asteroid.
Malice towards none
The glee on the Congress Vice President's face these days is implying that allegation of impropriety against Shri Jay Amit Shah totally absolve Shri Robert Vadra from all allegations of impropriety!
First random thought this morning
The common rhetorical question of BJP to Congress is that what has been achieved in India in 6 decades of Congress regime. Though I am sure to which political party this credit should go, but the fact is that India has remained united for seven decades is no mean achievement. Despite prolonged violent movements in Punjab and J&K, we have not seen an iota of public support for any type of secessionist movement.
However, given the trend in Europe, it would not be prudent to take this for granted. The government must build the probability in its policy making and make effort to preempt any such move.

An Investor's Diary

Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK's Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, in his recent blog post cautioned the emerging economies for relying too much on the demographic dividend from their burgeoning population. Instead of summarizing his thought at the expense of distorting it, I would like to reproduce it verbatim.
"Across emerging economies, the benefits of a “demographic dividend” have become a familiar refrain. Politicians and business leaders alike – be it in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, or Tanzania – talk glowingly of how a fast-growing and youthful population will create huge investment opportunities and fuel rapid economic growth. But the reality is that in many emerging economies, rapid population growth poses a major threat to development, and technological progress will make that threat even more severe.
For starters, the term “demographic dividend” is being seriously misused. The term was originally used to describe a transition in which countries enjoyed both a one-off increase in the working age population and a significant fall in fertility. That combination produces a high ratio of workers to dependents – both retirees and children – making it easier for high savings to support sufficient investment to drive rapid growth in capital stock.
Rapidly falling fertility, meanwhile, ensures that the next generation inherits a large capital stock per capita: and small family size makes it easier to afford high private or public education spending per child, leading to rapid improvements in workforce skills. South Korea, China, and some other East Asian countries have benefited hugely from such a demographic dividend over the last 40 years.
But without a rapid fall in fertility rates, there is no dividend. If fertility remains high, a low ratio of retirees to workers is offset by a high child dependency ratio, making it difficult to support high education spending per child. And if each new cohort of workers is much larger than the one before, growth in per capita capital stock – whether in infrastructure or plant and equipment – is held back. Rapidly growing working-age populations also make it impossible to create jobs fast enough to prevent widespread underemployment.
This is the bind in which much of Sub-Saharan Africa is still stuck. With moderate GDP growth rates (averaging 4.6% over the last decade) offset by 2.7% annual population growth, per capita income has been growing at less than 2% per year, versus the 7% rate which China achieves. At this rate of progress, Africa will not attain today’s advanced-economy living standards until the mid-2100s.
Pakistan faces a slightly less severe – but still significant – challenge. India’s demography varies by region: while fertility rates are now at or below two in economically dynamic states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat, the big northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are still facing severe demographic headwinds.
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Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Demographic accountability

Thought for the day
"Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out."
—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)
Word for the day
Esprit de corps (n)
A sense of unity and of common interests and responsibilities, as developed among a group of persons closely associated in a task, cause, enterprise, etc.
Malice towards none
How do we identify secular firecrackers?
As per Chetan Bhagat the firecrackers burnt on Diwali are Hindu and those burnt on Eid are Muslim!
First random thought this morning
If we truly believe in the legacy of Ram, Krushna, Bhoj, Vikramditya, Chankya, et. al., we must accept that the King (head of government, chief administrator or Pradhan Sevak, if you like) should be beyond any suspicion. Innocent till proven guilty is applicable to the ordinary people not Kings.
However, to punish the people who may chose to level false and baseless allegations against the King, we may have laws so stringent that no one would dare do that.

Demographic accountability

I have been writing repeatedly about the demographic accountability of India. Unfortunately, while the authorities are quick in claiming demographic dividend of the burgeoning population, the focus on demographic accountability is clearly lacking.
Millions of reams have been used to write and publish about the demographic characteristics of India. Many stories, themes and strategies have been built around the young demographic profile of 1.25bn Indians. Almost all these stories and strategies recognize the young Indian as a great opportunity - "Demographic dividend" for the Indian economy. I have however not come across any presentation that classifies this demographic profile as the solemn accountability and responsibility of India to the world.
The global community has always valued the resource rich nations and expected them to behave in a responsible manner to preserve the global order. The capital rich western world has been expected to help the poor and starved of the world. The world looked forward to them to fund technological advancement, preservation of cultural heritage, assisting global growth and development. Even after taking full cognizance of the allegations of imperialism and suppression, I believe that financially rich communities have worked for the betterment of human life by funding technological innovation, life science research & development, productivity enhancement, and development assistance to the economically lagging world.
Similarly, nations rich in natural resources like minerals etc. have been expected to prospect and exploit these resources in optimum manner to assist the sustenance and growth of the global economy.
My point is that now since India possesses the largest pool of prospective workers for the world, should it not be responsibility of government to prospect, grow, and develop this resource for benefit of global community!
This is even more pertinent in the context of the current global financial crisis. In places like Europe and Japan the root cause of the crisis could be traced to the aging demographic profile. China is also like to join the club in a decade or so. Under the circumstances it is the responsibility of India to provide educated, skilled and trained workforce to the global economy.
A number of research papers and surveys have shown that (a) Child and mother nutrition level in India is sub-standard consequently child mortality rates are poor; (b) higher and professional education standards are extremely poor consequently a large number of Indian graduates are unemployable even in routine jobs; (c) There is acute shortage of competent scientists to scale up research and development (R&T) activities to make Indian businesses competitive at global stage.
"Skill India" and "Make in India" are noble ideas for human resource development. But we need to make sure that these do not end up prospecting and developing only blue collar low skilled workers. In that case India will not only fail in its responsibility to global community but also slither back into the lower orbit of economic development like in 1950-80 ....to continue
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Friday, October 6, 2017

Incremental vs. transformative



"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Cucurbit (n)

Any plant of the gourd family.

Malice towards none

Mispriced aspirations are quintessentially designed to meet undesirable denouncement.

First random thought this morning

Pirated CDs are sold audaciously in all markets; sex workers and quack sexologists solicit business blatantly by advertizing in national dailies; prohibited alcohol products are advertized in the garb of soda water, playing cards, music CDs, crockery and what not; people drive on the wrong side even on expressways as highway police personnel rub tobacco on their palms.

But no one should dare raise issues like these, for the fear of being termed Shalya.

Incremental vs. transformative



Obviously, his supporters who were on back foot since past few weeks, especially after Yashwant Sinha's outburst, came back strongly and #ModiTransformedIndia started trending on social media.

Since, I based my decisions on the premise of "business as usual" not relying on tall promises, I have absolutely no problems with the economic performance of the incumbent government. Moreover, I do not give much credence to economic data quoted selectively by politicians to suit their convenience. As such, I have no comment to offer on PM's speech and claims made therein. Nevertheless, I must share three observations.

Firstly, the whole endeavor of Prime Minister was on establishing how his government is better than the previous administration. In that also, he did only highlight the data like FDI, roads completed, CAD, inflation, electronic manufacturing etc., that has seen improvement in past 3yrs. He may find it little tough to explain, in my view, how come this improvement is not part of a long drawn process that started a long back in 1991, accelerated in 1998 and further boosted during 2003-2007 and well greased in 2013.

Even a cursory study will show that the economic growth in India is business as usual and no transformative change (conceived and implemented by incumbent government) has taken place in past three years. If only, some disruptions, like GST, have taken place, which again were due and anticipated since long.

Secondly, it is unfair for him to benchmark his performance against an establishment which he never forgets to rubbish as paralyzed, enslaved to a family and regressive. He may want to evaluate his performance against his promises or rather the aspirations he has raised. I see the aspirations which were mostly mispriced, correcting to mean, if I may use stock market jargon.

Thirdly, I refuse to believe that the incumbent government has introduced changes, a variant of which we have not seen before (including alleged demonetization and whip on non-compliant citizens) or which has been conceived and implemented ab initio by the incumbent administration. Green Revolution (1960s), Joining GAAT and WTO (1947 & 1995), Industrial Liberalization (1991), Nuclear Tests (1998), and dismantling of government monopoly over energy, roads, ports, telecom, coal, etc, (1998-2004) were some transformative changes to my mind. Providing LPG connection to BPL families and distributing LED bulbs may be transformative for beneficiary households, but not for the economy or country by any stretch of imagination. If that is claimed to be so, then MNREGA and RTE were much more powerful and far reaching changes.

Disclosure: I am a BJP voter since 1989, and will remain so in 2019 too.
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Thursday, October 5, 2017

What could cause a bear market - 3

Thought for the day
"Appreciation is a wonderful thing: It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well."
—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Atonement (n)
Reparation for a wrong or injury.
Malice towards none
Why no one from political class appears on TV discussions about Dera Sachha Sauda and Honeypreet, while it is a common knowledge that almost all political parties sought patronage of Dera, Baba and Baby.
First random thought this morning
Six days of drive through three states, three ATM withdrawals, five gas fillings, 15 meals and some shopping in strictly cash only markets — not even a single Rs2000 bill seen anywhere.
It's hard not to get suspicious.
The suspicion I get is that either RBI is systematically withdrawing Rs2000 bills from the system and introducing Rs500 and Rs200 bills instead; or all unaccounted money has been converted into pink notes and stored safely in some dark rooms.

What could cause a bear market - 3

Last week, I started a discussion regarding what could cause a bear market in Indian equities (see here and here). Taking the discussion forward, in my view the following could go wrong making case for a deep correction in equity valuations.
Please note I definitely do not intend to apply the Murphy's law here that "whatever can go wrong, will go wrong." I am initiating this discussion just to make sure that I am prepared for the worst, in the eventuality if things do begin to go the wrong way.
1.    Oil prices: FY15-FY16 GDP got a significant boost from the collapse in global crude prices. The growth accelerated despite poor consecutive monsoons. Since then the global crude prices have stabilized around USD50/bbl. The global consensus is that the oil prices may not fall much from the current levels and eventually stabilize in USD55-60/bbl range in 2019-2020. This forecast juxtaposed with medium term INR forecasts of Rs68-69/USD, and commitment of the government to keep fuel pricing completely market driven, would suggest we may see some adverse impact of oil on overall GDP growth.
2.    Twin deficit: In past four years, one of the remarkable improvement in Indian macro parameters has been in the current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit (FD). The CAD improved from over 5% of GDP in FY13 to less than 2% of GDP in FY17. However, CAD has now bottomed out and likely to rise in FY18 and FY19. Though with over USD400bn in reserve and still strong capital flows, the financing is not seen as a problem.
The spiral effect of GST is expected to continue impacting GDP well early parts of FY19. This clouds the outlook for ambitious tax collection growth budgeted by the government.
The central government has so far walked a very tight rope on fiscal discipline. But some cracks are showing in the State fiscal gaps. As the private investment remains uncertain and consumption not showing much promise either, public consumption and investment would be needed to support the growth from collapsing closer to general elections in 2019. Recent cut in excise duty on fuel may be seen in this context.
As per advance estimates, the kharif crop this season could be 2 to 3% lower vs. last year. This may keep the stress in rural economy at elevated level, giving rise to demand for loan waivers from many other states, just before key elections.
3.    Rates: Irrespective of the slowdown in economic growth and slowest credit growth seen in many decades, there is little visibility of a sharp correction in lending rates and bond yields from the current levels.
Rise in global rates, further write downs on stressed assets as bankruptcy resolution picks up, likely rise in government borrowing, slowdown in portfolio flows, and upward risks in inflation outlook, and rise in demand for formal credit as informal markets dry up, may prevent any meaningful correction in rates from current levels....to continue tomorrow
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Wednesday, September 27, 2017

What could cause a bear market - 2

We are delighted to wish all our readers on the occassion of Durga Puja and Dussehra.
The next issue of Morning Trekk will be published on 4th October 2017.
Thought for the day
"Injustice in the end produces independence."
—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Monticule (n)
A small mountain, hill or mound
Malice towards none
The court says, "a feeble No does not mean No."
We may need a Pink 2.
#MahmoodFarooqui
First random thought this morning
After NITI Aayog, the government has constituted another unaccountable body to advise it on economic matters. This is a pure advisory body and cannot be held accountable for any of its advice given to the government.
The point is that why do we need such a body. PM could have called all these eminent economists, and many more, to meet over tea every month and give their suggestions regarding economic challenges being faced by the government. They would have been happy to offer their advice/suggestion without any charge to the exchequer. CEA and PEA could then process these suggestions and do the needful.

What could cause a bear market - 2

Most analysts and money managers apparently seem convinced that the market may not fall much from the current levels. In their view, though fully priced at this point in time may rise much higher as earnings are likely to grow much faster from FY19 onwards as the effect of demonetization and GST fade and benefits start to kick in.
Before I make any argument, I would like to state a few facts which are not disputed by many.
(a)   Sensex earnings have hardly seen any growth in three years from FY15 to FY17. In this period Sensex earnings have grown just 5% from 1329 in FY14 to 1397 in FY17.
(b)   The long term EPS growth (5yr CAGR) has been declined from 25% in FY08 to 5% in FY17. Even considering the consensus estimates, the long term EPS growth may remain around 5% level in FY 18 and FY19 also.
(c)    One year forward PE of Sensex, based on consensus estimates, is close to 19, which compares well with 2008 peak of 20.
(d)   Market capitalization to GDP ratio, a key macro matrix applied to assess the sustainable levels of equity market, of Indian markets is about to 90%, which is close to 100% level seen in 2010. The recent peak in this ratio was seen in 2008, when this ratio was close to 150%.
(e)    Sensex price to book ratio is close to its long term average of 3x.
(f)    In past one year domestic flows to equities have increased materially in comparison to period after GFC. However, Foreign investors have net sold position in Indian equities in 2017.
(g)    The aggregate capacity utilization at economy level is below 75% consistently.
(h)   Both private investment and private savings rates have declined in past three years.
Besides the above, the view is divided on the following issues:
(i)    Earning recovery is imminent as GDP revives from FY19 onwards
(ii)   The capacity utilization shall improve as the impact of demonetization & GST related slowdown fades and demand bottoms out.
(iii)  Indian rates may ease further from here.
(iv)   India's macro fundamentals are resilient to any global economic slowdown liquidity contraction as Central Banks wind up post GFC stimulus.
(v)    US yields and USD may move higher from current levels, pressurizing flows to emerging markets, including India, and correction in global commodity prices.
In my view, the future course of Indian equity market would depend on these factors. We need to find what could take market up or down in 2018....to continue.
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Tuesday, September 26, 2017

What could cause a bear market?

"Weakness on both sides is, as we know, the motto of all quarrels."
—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Tittle (n)
A very small part or quantity; a particle, jot, or whit, e.g., He said he didn't care a tittle.
Malice towards none
Next 15 months will test the resolve of PM Modi. Any sign of weakness on any front, may be punished severally.
The feeling "anyone but Modi" is already sprouting in the dark forests. It needs to be nipped in the bud before it assumes ominous proportions and spreads to fertile lands.
First random thought this morning
The use of a wrong photo by Pakistan diplomat in UNGA has drawn attention of many. Most have ridiculed the endeavor as a botched attempt to malign India at global platform. It may be worth recalling that in the recent past there have been umpteen instances of similar goof ups by various political parties in India, including BJP and Congress.
The real point to my mind is that Google has become overwhelmingly powerful in defining our consciousness, awareness, knowledge, concerns, opinions and many a times actions also. And the irony is that no one can complain because it all comes "Free" and without any obligation to use or trust.
Like we debate good and bad nuclear assets, good and bad terrorism, a few years later, we may need to debate good and bad Google also.

What could cause a bear market?

In a recent article (see here) Noble Laureate Robert J. Shiller emphasized that " The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn't mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency."
Incidentally, he is not alone in his tribe. A number of other experts have sounded notes of caution in relation to the current stock rallies across the world.
The experts have listed a number of reasons that could cause a bear market in the equities in coming months. Some of the most popular triggers for correction could be listed as follows:
(a)   Geopolitical concerns, especially tension in Korean peninsula, have been frequently causing rise in volatility in the market.
Though, the evidence of a geopolitical conflict causing a global bear market in equities in post WWII era are inadequate. Equity prices have in fact reacted positively to some major conflicts like Arab-Israel war (1948-1949), Vietnam war (1955-1975), Iran-Iraq conflict (1980-1988), Iraq War I (1990-1991), Iraq War (2003-2005) etc.
(b)   Debt crisis in China is arguably one of the most favorite cause of global equity collapse.
This is a tangible concern, given the deeply intertwined trade and financial interests of Chinese businesses and financial institutions in the global economy. A disorderly correction in Chinese financial system may cause widespread disruption in the global trade and financial system. Though at this point in time there is little evidence to rely upon that Chinese authorities could lose control over its financial institutions or currency and let the global financial system collapse.
(c)    Contraction of liquidity as Central Banks wind down monetary stimulus given in the wake of global financial crisis (2008 onwards), could cause cost of capital to rise and USD to strengthen causing a global correction in asset prices, including equities, bonds, commodities etc.
This presupposes that the Central Bankers which have vowed "whatever it takes" to protect stability of global financial system, would be blind to the collapse that any reversal of stimulus may cause. The argument that Central Banks have exhausted all the arrows in their quiver and hence would be helpless in the event of a collapse, completely ignores that the arrows being shot since 2009 have been manufactured in the war ground itself.
(d)   Though their tribe has shrinked substantially, but few still believe that Brexit will cause large scale disruptions in the global economy and lead to serious correction in asset prices.
(e)    The strongest argument for the bear market in equity prices is the high and seemingly unsustainable valuations. Though, the textbook measures for equity valuations are yet to be revised to factor in the "New Normal" in real growth, yields and inflation, the current valuations may be a matter of legitimate concern.....to continue tomorrow.
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Friday, September 22, 2017

Enigma of inflation

"It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere."
—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Concatenation (n)
A series of interconnected or interdependent things or events.
Malice towards none
Do the TV channels daily broadcasting sponsored programs of quacks and suspicious preachers have any moral right to speak against superstitions and malpractices prevalent in the society? Also do the newspapers carrying prostitution advertisement under garb of friendship clubs, massage services etc., should be heard on the matter of women exploitation?
First random thought this morning
Is it a mere coincidence or the current administration (both at center and state level) is making serious attempts to correct a number of distortions in the Islamic practices especially relating to mexploitation of Muslim women, like Triple Talaq, NIkah Halala, Nikah Mutah, etc.?
Regardless of anything this is a welcome development and should be appreciated by all.
Making it clear that establishment will not seek to exploit the issue for electoral advantage, may minimize the resistance from Muslim male too.

Enigma of inflation

For a common man like me on the street, who is blissfully ignorant of the principles of economics and public finances, inflation is nothing but an enigma. The rising prices do hit him hard, but that also lead to rise in his nominal income and hence social stature. Higher nominal interest rate on his savings, higher notional value of his house & jewellery; and higher rental for the spare room on the top floor provides him some psychological comfort, at the least.
As I see it, for a common man, inflation is more of an income inequality issue than anything else. For example consider the following:
(a)   A farmer should gain maximum from the food inflation. Given that over 60% population is engaged in the farming and related activities, theoretically consistently high food inflation should result in transfer of wealth from non-farm sector to the farm sector. But this has not been the case in any of the high food inflation episodes in past seven decades. The gap between rural and non-rural income and wealth has been consistently widening.
(b)   The food inflation should also benefit the urban middle class. The expense on food for a typical Indian middle class family is not more than 40% and a typical middle class household saves 25% of his income. If food inflation is 10%, a 5% rise in nominal income should be sufficient to offset that.
Besides, they would need sufficient rise in nominal income and asset prices and interest rates to offset the erosion in real value of their savings. This perhaps has not happened in past many decades, implying that nominal rise in asset prices and interest rates has not been consistent with the general rise in price levels. The wealth is thus consistently getting transferred from savers to borrowers.
(c)    One could argue that transfer of wealth from farmer and urban middle classes to trader and indebted industrialist is a function of risk they take.
But if we consider the history of NPA cycles, and exploits by moneylenders this argument gets weaker. Large borrowers have been consistently transferring the risk to public sector banks, and hence the common public, through frequent defaults. The money lenders in informal sector have been fairly successful in exploiting the household and farmer borrowers, not allowing any benefit of inflation to them.
The equation in energy inflation (mostly imported or arising due to state inefficiency) and core inflation is different, but impact is mostly the same.
In my view, therefore inflation has been a medium of wealth transfer from common man to the rich. The current raging debate over rise in prices of food therefore has to be seem from this angle also.
I have been highlighting that at the current productivity level farming in India is mostly an unremunerative business. A multifold rise in either farm productivity or prices can only correct this situation.
I would seek readers' view on this problem, before I take up it in some detail.
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Thursday, September 21, 2017

Whose history is it anyways - 4

"The art of medicine consists in amusing the patient while nature cures the disease."
—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Oceanicity (n)
The degree to which the climate of a place is influenced by the sea.
Malice towards none
Could Trump do to Kim what Bush Jr. did to Saddam?
First random thought this morning
It is surprising to see that investors who were bullish on Indian equities due to "strong macro" fundamentals, seem even more bullish at the prospects of fiscal profligacy in the form of fiscal stimulus (now that government has finally admitted to the deterioration in economic health of the country). The current account has already joined the weak spots of the economy category.
Despite a "no show" for four long years (FY13-FY17), there are many who still feel earnings will present a gala show this year and the next. May the wolf come soon, while villagers are still listening to the shepherd boy!

Whose history is it anyways - 4        

I have received a large amount of hate mail for my views expressed in past three days. I am grateful to all those who took pain to write. This fully corroborates what I have been observing during my travels and trying to highlight here.
I do not want to engage in any political debate. I am certainly not concerned about the knowledge of our politicians about history and economics of India. I also do not wish to sermonize anyone or judge any party or organization by their recent activities, iterations, and ideologies, or lack of it for that matter.
I would like to limit myself to my economic interests and in my view, the rising insolence and cynicism in a society can never be a good news for its economy.
Many people would agree with me on my assessment that the incumbent government has introduced a fair degree of unpredictability in policy making in the country. The policy paralysis that was widely believed to be the hallmark mark of the previous government has been replaced by the elements of unpredictability and radicalism. Though not worrisome per se, this tendency has unwittingly put the administration and the people impacted by the fiscal policies on path of confrontation. Consequently—
(a)   Suspicious of future policy direction; unconvinced of government promises, and uncertain about the stability of current policy regime - people are deferring both investment and discretionary consumption decisions. One may argue that the growth in sales of automobile and white goods is not indicating much slowdown in discretionary consumption demand. To this I must reply that the growth trajectory of it has certainly moved down and lower return on recent capex (and any incremental capex) may make it conspicuous.
(b)   Confidence in broader India growth story supported well by global enthusiasm, juxtaposed to skepticism raised by unpredictability & instability of policy and general social distress, is creating a deal of cognitive dissonance impacting the decision making as well as disposition of businesses.
(c)    The economy faces a potential threat of getting pushed into a vicious cycle of lower growth-lower employment-lower income-lower consumption-lower investment-lower growth, if immediate steps are not taken to improve business and consumer confidence.
The dilemma however would be that it may challenge the fiscal discipline, which had been one of the most important rallying point for investors' confidence. An unmindful fiscal stimulus at this stage could disturb the inflation-growth equilibrium by pushing prices and rates higher.
I shall therefore continue to maintain an extremely cautious stance on Indian equities for next 12-18months. At the risk of facing ridicule from my peers, I would go underweight on NBFCs, capital goods, and lower middle class consumption, in particular.
Also read the following:
Whose history is it anyways - 1
Whose history is it anyways - 2
Whose history is it anyways - 3
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