"When a lot of remedies
are suggested for a disease, that means it can't be cured."
—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)
Word for the day
Astrobleme (adj)
An erosional scar on the
earth's surface, produced by the impact of a cosmic body, as a meteorite or
asteroid.
Malice towards none
The glee on the Congress
Vice President's face these days is implying that allegation of impropriety
against Shri Jay Amit Shah totally absolve Shri Robert Vadra from all
allegations of impropriety!
First random thought this morning
The common rhetorical question of BJP to Congress is that what has
been achieved in India in 6 decades of Congress regime. Though I am sure to which
political party this credit should go, but the fact is that India has remained
united for seven decades is no mean achievement. Despite prolonged violent
movements in Punjab and J&K, we have not seen an iota of public support for
any type of secessionist movement.
However, given the trend in Europe, it would not be prudent to
take this for granted. The government must build the probability in its policy
making and make effort to preempt any such move.
An Investor's
Diary
"Across
emerging economies, the benefits of a “demographic dividend” have become a
familiar refrain. Politicians and business leaders alike – be it in India,
Nigeria, Pakistan, or Tanzania – talk glowingly of how a fast-growing and
youthful population will create huge investment opportunities and fuel rapid
economic growth. But the reality is that in many emerging economies, rapid
population growth poses a major threat to development, and technological
progress will make that threat even more severe.
For
starters, the term “demographic dividend” is being seriously misused. The term
was originally used to describe a transition in which countries enjoyed both a
one-off increase in the working age population and a significant fall in
fertility. That combination produces a high ratio of workers to dependents –
both retirees and children – making it easier for high savings to support
sufficient investment to drive rapid growth in capital stock.
Rapidly
falling fertility, meanwhile, ensures that the next generation inherits a large
capital stock per capita: and small family size makes it easier to
afford high private or public education spending per child, leading to rapid
improvements in workforce skills. South Korea, China, and some other East Asian
countries have benefited hugely from such a demographic dividend over the last
40 years.
But
without a rapid fall in fertility rates, there is no dividend. If fertility
remains high, a low ratio of retirees to workers is offset by a high child
dependency ratio, making it difficult to support high education spending per
child. And if each new cohort of workers is much larger than the one before,
growth in per capita capital stock – whether in infrastructure
or plant and equipment – is held back. Rapidly growing working-age populations
also make it impossible to create jobs fast enough to prevent widespread
underemployment.
This is the
bind in which much of Sub-Saharan Africa is still stuck. With moderate GDP
growth rates (averaging 4.6% over the last decade) offset by 2.7% annual
population growth, per capita income has been growing at less
than 2% per year, versus the 7% rate which China achieves. At this rate of
progress, Africa will not attain today’s advanced-economy living standards
until the mid-2100s.
Pakistan
faces a slightly less severe – but still significant – challenge. India’s
demography varies by region: while fertility rates are now at or below two in
economically dynamic states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat, the big northern
states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are still facing severe demographic
headwinds.
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