Friday, October 6, 2017

Incremental vs. transformative



"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Cucurbit (n)

Any plant of the gourd family.

Malice towards none

Mispriced aspirations are quintessentially designed to meet undesirable denouncement.

First random thought this morning

Pirated CDs are sold audaciously in all markets; sex workers and quack sexologists solicit business blatantly by advertizing in national dailies; prohibited alcohol products are advertized in the garb of soda water, playing cards, music CDs, crockery and what not; people drive on the wrong side even on expressways as highway police personnel rub tobacco on their palms.

But no one should dare raise issues like these, for the fear of being termed Shalya.

Incremental vs. transformative



Obviously, his supporters who were on back foot since past few weeks, especially after Yashwant Sinha's outburst, came back strongly and #ModiTransformedIndia started trending on social media.

Since, I based my decisions on the premise of "business as usual" not relying on tall promises, I have absolutely no problems with the economic performance of the incumbent government. Moreover, I do not give much credence to economic data quoted selectively by politicians to suit their convenience. As such, I have no comment to offer on PM's speech and claims made therein. Nevertheless, I must share three observations.

Firstly, the whole endeavor of Prime Minister was on establishing how his government is better than the previous administration. In that also, he did only highlight the data like FDI, roads completed, CAD, inflation, electronic manufacturing etc., that has seen improvement in past 3yrs. He may find it little tough to explain, in my view, how come this improvement is not part of a long drawn process that started a long back in 1991, accelerated in 1998 and further boosted during 2003-2007 and well greased in 2013.

Even a cursory study will show that the economic growth in India is business as usual and no transformative change (conceived and implemented by incumbent government) has taken place in past three years. If only, some disruptions, like GST, have taken place, which again were due and anticipated since long.

Secondly, it is unfair for him to benchmark his performance against an establishment which he never forgets to rubbish as paralyzed, enslaved to a family and regressive. He may want to evaluate his performance against his promises or rather the aspirations he has raised. I see the aspirations which were mostly mispriced, correcting to mean, if I may use stock market jargon.

Thirdly, I refuse to believe that the incumbent government has introduced changes, a variant of which we have not seen before (including alleged demonetization and whip on non-compliant citizens) or which has been conceived and implemented ab initio by the incumbent administration. Green Revolution (1960s), Joining GAAT and WTO (1947 & 1995), Industrial Liberalization (1991), Nuclear Tests (1998), and dismantling of government monopoly over energy, roads, ports, telecom, coal, etc, (1998-2004) were some transformative changes to my mind. Providing LPG connection to BPL families and distributing LED bulbs may be transformative for beneficiary households, but not for the economy or country by any stretch of imagination. If that is claimed to be so, then MNREGA and RTE were much more powerful and far reaching changes.

Disclosure: I am a BJP voter since 1989, and will remain so in 2019 too.

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