Friday, August 5, 2016

Adapt or perish

"Blessed is the man, who having nothing to say, abstains from giving wordy evidence of the fact."
George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Connubial (adj)
Of marriage or wedlock; matrimonial; conjugal, e.g., connubial love.
Malice towards none
The scene in Rajya Sabha during GST Bill debate was very similar to Sooraj Barjatya's family drama.
All 125crore Indians must have wished together - O' Lord please keep it like this always! Amen!
First random thought this morning
Those who were expecting fireworks in the market on Thursday morning, might be little disappointed.
But I do not see any reason for them to be disheartened. The fireworks will happen over next decade or so.
For now, perhaps the revelers might have exhausted their stock of firecrackers little too early. Wait till the new stock arrives!

Adapt or perish

The unanimous vote for the constitutional amendment that will enable implementation of a national indirect tax by replacing a myriad of regional and local taxes is definitely a landmark reform. This will certainly clear many hurdles and pave way for a faster economic growth.
However, I may reiterate that economic reforms do not necessarily result in more profit and convenience to people in the immediate term. To the contrary, economic reforms are more likely to cause pain and inconvenience in the immediate term as these involve fundamental changes in the processes and practices of doing business and consuming goods and services.
The economic paradigm shifts with each progressive reform. The businesses, investors and consumers need to fully assimilate it and adapt to the new regime. Those who fail to adapt to the changed reality fast, run the risk of becoming redundant under the new economic paradigm.
During 1970s and 1980s the government used to publish a list of businesses (including business groups) who were termed as "large" under the provisions of the Monopolistic and Restrictive Trade Practices Act 1969. From the country's top 50 business groups in 1980s, not more than 5 would figure in the list of top 100 today. Only a few people in their 20s and 30s today would even be aware of those names. Most of these businesses vanished because they could not adapt to the evolving (a) economic realities and (b) technology.
Even internationally, just 4 of the top 20 global corporations in 1989 were present in the list 25yr later in 2014.
A more pertinent question do I need to change my investment strategy due to GST? Will discuss more on this next week.
 
 

Thursday, August 4, 2016

My two cents on GST

"It will never rain roses: when we want to have more roses we must plant more trees."
George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Inculcate (v)
To implant by repeated statement or admonition; teach persistently and earnestly.
Malice towards none
Who was Geeta Zutshi?
Please answer without googling.
First random thought this morning
It is now confirmed that lower crude prices are hitting a section of Indian economy very hard. Remittances from gulf have fallen marginally last year. This year could see the worse in terms of both employment & remittances.
A lot of businesses rely upon activities of the Indian employed in gulf countries, especially travel related businesses and financial services firms. These businesses are already suffering. The pain may rise in coming months. Workers who have been supporting savings, consumption and investment back home may return and sit idle for some time.
Have you heard a plan from the government?

My two cents on GST

The wider debate on GST is now limited to two points - (1) whether it will be implemented from April 2017 or from a later date; and (2) whether it will be inflationary.
From investors' perspective the single point of interest is to find the potential gainers and losers from the indirect tax regime transformation. The traders want to know what can give a jump of 10%+ in today's trade.
Frankly speaking, I have no ready answer to any of the questions. Moreover I do not believe most of the answers provided by various experts and currently available in the public domain.
However, what the five things I can say with fair degree of certainty at this point in time are as follows:
(a)   GST is a progressive reform and will benefit the economy as a whole. It is possible that due to regional political interest groups, in the initial years some restrictions are introduced in the legislation that prevent creation of a truly national market.
       Nonetheless, it will happen as the benefits become quantifiable over next decade or so. We have been living without GST for seven decades. One more with partial implementation is definitely not a matter of life and death.
(b)   One of the primary objective of GST is to improve tax compliance. This is hugely disruptive to the ways a large number of businessmen in the country are used to function.
       Thousands of MSME units are viable just because of tax evasion opportunities under the current regime. These opportunities may not be available under GST regime. Hence, the sustainability of these units is under thick clouds.
       Moreover, there is a full army of professionals which helps these businesses evade tax. These also risk losing their jobs. A large number of revenue department personnel who thrive on bribes, and agents responsible for collecting octroi and entry tax will also suffer.
       Unemployment, losses and shut down of businesses due to financial unviability, are inevitable consequences that will impact urban consumption in the short term. The positive is that we may see many polluting factories operating in neighborhood getting closed.
(c)    Many businesses have made huge investment in tax havens (backward areas) to benefit from tax arbitrage at the expense of business rationale. This investment risks going under water as this arbitrage vanishes in due course.
(d)   Productivity gains shall be seen in most large businesses as logistic costs improve, and compliance becomes easier. For smaller local businesses though benefits are not so direct. These may mostly benefit from the overall pick up in economic growth.
(e)    A household consumer may see rise in the cost of living.

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

For a few medals more - 2

"Consequences are unpitying."
George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Sonorous (adj)
Loud, deep, or resonant, as a sound.
Malice towards none
While pursuing expansion in North East, BJP might have lost sight of troubles brewing in its backyard.
First random thought this morning
Three years back, I complained that the authorities are in a habit of not learning from their mistakes.; and that despite our government proclaiming the “License Raj” dead two decades ago, in mindset of our politicians and bureaucracy it still endures. (See here)
Well RBI seems to have ceded some ground. Let's hope the other organs of the state also inculcate habit of learning from their mistakes.

For a few medals more - 2

In my view, various societies in the world could be divided into two broad categories - (a) Ladder societies; and (b) Cliff societies.
The ladder societies are usually upwardly mobile societies. In these societies all get support and an equal chance to move up step by step. The place at the top is strongly believed to be infinite; therefore, the competition in these societies is mostly internal - people compete with their frailty, depravity, fear, and vices like lust, anger, greed, haughtiness, and infatuation.
Peace, asceticism, abstinence, benevolence, goodwill, spiritual evolution are some of the key words in these societies.
Cliff societies, on the other hand are usually static societies. The core belief of these societies is that the place at the top is limited. The competition in these societies is therefore mostly external and fierce. To stay at the top, one must (i) stop others from climbing higher; (ii) be vigilant about those who have already reached the top, as they may try to push you down; and (iii) be consistently at fight with the peers and try to throw them off the cliff to secure your space at the top. Considering the intensity of the external conflict, the internal malice in these societies could remain unattended for unusually long periods of time.
Animal spirit, killing instinct, survival of fittest, relative competitiveness, material comfort, economic evolution, are a few of the key words in these societies.
All modern global sporting events, like global industry & commerce, have evolved in the cliff societies. These promotes relative competitiveness as key sporting objective. The necessity to win medals incites the "animal spirit" and "killing instincts" in the participants. Unfortunately, this animal spirit and killing instincts do not die at the podium. These stay with the participants for long and impact their personal, social and economic life.
Moreover, this concept of "relative competitiveness" (also known as first past the post) is a major impediment to the quality in life, as the focus remains on doing better than the competitors rather than doing best for the society.
Traditionally, India had been a ladder society. The concept of Ram Rajya is used to outline the tenets which promote absolute quality, equality and harmony in the society, permitting each individual to pursue his/her own chosen path with passion and dignity.
Winning Olympic medals does not fit into traditional Indian ethos, but excellence in sports does. Similarly, traditional Indian businesses were based on individual/social excellence (arts and crafts). The entire R&D effort remained focused on upliftment of entire society rather than profiteering.
But as the episode involving wrestler Narsingh Yadav shows, our transformation into a cliff society might be complete. Now, expect to see this killing instinct in businesses more prominently. Expect many more large businesses like RIL. Expect many more causalities like Orkay Silk Mills. Expect much more good times for investors. Expect many more cases of divorce, domestic violence, corporate espionage, abrupt bankruptcies and hostile takeovers. And of course expect many more Olympic Medals.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

For a few medals more

"He was like a cock who thought the sun had risen to hear him crow."
George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Skylark (v)
To frolic, e.g., The children were skylarking on the beach.
Malice towards none
The total civic mismanagement of monsoon makes one thing certain  - Still no one takes IMD forecast seriously.
First random thought this morning
There was hardly any day last month when newspapers did not prominently report a fresh instance of rape. Many girls who suffered were minors. Something is seriously and definitely wrong with our society; and the conditions are worsening with each passing day, beyond any doubt.
Despite all solemn commitments post the infamous Nirbhaya incident, the state has failed to address the issue in any effective manner. Under these circumstances if a girl/woman or their parents do not feel like living in the country, why should they be blamed or branded anti-national?

For a few medals more

In three days, 31st episode of the Summer Olympic Games of the modern era would start. India is sending her largest ever team of 120 sportspersons to the mega sports event.
On the occasion, I have few random thoughts that I would like to share with my readers. Some of these thoughts relate to the social issues that may potentially have serious economic implications in the decades to come. These may therefore be considered in formulation of investment strategy.
Primary observations
(a)   One obvious, but still relevant, observation is that the Indian contingent of 120 sportspersons comprises 54 female athletes. I wonder whether it is yet another headline claim of gender equality. At the ground, I find little evidence of this phenomenon. The female athletes like all other female workers are not treated at par with their male counterparts.
(b)   Olympic games usually illuminates the flame of nationalism amongst the middle class of the country. The poor have no time for, or interest in, these things. For rich it is a great tourism opportunity.
       The government authorities and politicians, including the PM himself, want Indian team to win medals (we will be jubilant if our team brings more than 6 won at 2012 London games). Similar sentiments were seen when Amir Khan starrer Lagaan made to final round of the Oscars.
       Wonder why politicians and government have started showing so much interest in games and films in past couple of decades. In my view, because these two recreation activities are emerging as large industries with huge employment potential. More important, unlike ITeS, these recreation activities are attracting people from the relatively lower economic strata (a fertile political constituency). Watch music TV realty shows, and check on economic background of IPL & Kabbadi league players to appreciate what I am trying to suggest.
       The reluctance of the government to declare sports as an industry is however baffling. The sooner it is done, better it would be.
(c)    A lot of clamoring, financial support and other efforts are made to make athletes competitive at the international level. These efforts have certainly yielded some results in past one decade. A number of sportspersons have performed well at the international level. Each one successful athlete might motivate 100k more to join the race. Just like one successful entertainment star motivates thousands to take the train to Mumbai (or Hyderabad or wherever).
       Ever wondered if we could produce a noble laureate in mathematics, physics, or medicine. He could change lives of millions of the fellow countrymen through his work. But that is not the priority of anyone. This constituency is negligible from electoral viewpoint. Domestic NGOs and industry are not sure whether India can retain a noble laureate, even if she produces one. Overseas NGOs obviously see a conflict of interest in this area....to continue tomorrow

Monday, August 1, 2016

Nifty: still a long way to go

Thought for the day
"I like trying to get pregnant. I'm not so sure about childbirth."
George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Woolgathering (n)
Indulgence in idle fancies and in daydreaming; absentmindedness
Malice towards none
Considering the stature of the main two Presidential candidates in the US, should the Congress consider allowing NOTA vote in the November elections.
First random thought this morning
The recent flooding of major Indian cities and consequent traffic snarls have led to severe criticism of public authorities. Indubitably, the public authorities in India are less sensitive, apathetic and mostly callous - so nothing new here.
After trekking social media for three hours, I could not find a single criticism of citizens - who refuse to follow lanes while driving; do not hesitate in jumping to opposite lanes in case of delay at traffic or railway signals etc.
In my experience of driving over half a million kms in India, 70% of jams and traffic delays are caused due to this intolerance of citizens.

Nifty: still a long way to go

The derivative expire of July series last Thursday must have enthused most bulls. The derivative expiry today is very encouraging for the bulls.
At 8666, it was the third highest Nifty expiry ever; marginally below the second highest expiry of ~8684 in Feb 2015.
After the highest expiry of 8952 in January 2015, it took 13 expiries for the Nifty to record the cycle low expiry of ~6971 in Feb 2016.
In a typical bull market it normally takes half the time to retrace all the losses. From that view point, it will be no surprise if we see an expiry of 8952 or more in September 2016.
In the process to recoup losses, Nifty may appear to be running too fast and too far from the average. But from historical perspective, it still has a long way to cover.
On past many occasions, the cycle top has between 2x to 3.41x of 200EMA on monthly charts. At present Nifty is just 1.8x of 200EMA of 4708 on monthly charts. Therefore on strict technical parameters the cycle top may occur between 9400-15500 in next 3-38months.
 
 
 

Friday, July 29, 2016

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business - 2

"The time will come when it will disgust you to look in the mirror."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Zoosemiotics (n)
The study of the sounds and signals used in animal communication, as song in birds or tail-wagging in dogs.
Malice towards none
PM Modi once said on floor of the Lok Sabha, that his political acumen should not be doubted.
AK obviously did not buy his claim.
It would be interesting to watch who returns triumphant at the end of the day!
First random thought this morning
US$265bn stimulus by Japanese government and yet "no hike" by US Fed, hardly moved the global markets.
Is it simply the law of diminishing marginal returns working or the markets are losing faith in governments and central bankers?

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business - 2

I have been saying this rather persistently and repeatedly. I do not mind reiterating it once again - if India needs to become a middle income economy by 2050, her people would need to contribute a lot. It is almost impossible to make India grow faster through fiscal profligacy, crony socialism, and nationalism by convenience.
Almost everyone I meet in the cities of this vast country, is complaining about shrinking cash economy and improving incidence of taxation.
Those who are complaining the most include - Traders whose whole business model is build around tax avoidance; industrialist and large farmers who profited from free (or stolen) electricity & bank loans which they earnestly believed are not repayable; businesses who were conceived and setup as beneficiaries of tax arbitrage; real estate developers who obliged people by taking their hard earned money in consideration of promise of a dream house and not delivering anything for years; brokers and professionals who helped all these people in laundering money and/or providing legitimacy to this ill gotten money through complex deals at stock exchanges or through round tripping from tax havens.
In my firm view, India cannot become a middle income economy by 2050 if we fail to -
(a)   Bridge the multitude of deficits prevalent in the country, especially trust deficit, governance deficit, compliance deficit, skill deficit, social and physical infrastructure deficit, and capital deficit; and
(b)   Bring India into a state of equilibrium by removing social, and regional, economic imbalances.
It is therefore of utmost importance that-
§  Industries and businesses who have thrived historical on government largesse and not necessarily on the enterprising abilities of promoters would be willing to give back to society by way higher taxes, higher voluntary CSR spending, technology upgrade for better resource utilization, etc.;
§  Regions like Gujarat and Maharashtra, which are economically more developed despite not being endowed richly with natural resources, would like to acknowledge that a part of their development is due to imperial designs of British regime and share their wealth with exploited regions like Jharkhand and Odisha.
§  Caste and communities which command ownership of the major part of economic resources and occupy most of the social space, would like to voluntarily vacate some space for the historically oppressed and downtrodden.
§  Populace which has grown to be non-compliant by habit, not necessarily by intention, would like to change habits like spitting on roads, violating traffic rules, encroaching on pavements in front of their house/shops, exploiting domestic helps and child labor etc.

Thursday, July 28, 2016

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business

"Birds sing after a storm; why shouldn't people feel as free to delight in whatever sunlight remains to them?."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Arrears (Plural noun)
The state of being behind or late, especially in the fulfillment of a duty, promise, obligation, or the like, e.g., Many homeowners have fallen into arrears.
Malice towards none
16years and two bypass surgeries later Bill Clinton may again get a chance to enter the White House. But this time nothing else to do!
First random thought this morning
Yesterday evening got an opportunity to attend a meeting of traders' body as special invitee. The topic of discussion was the evolving policy framework under the incumbent government. Everyone appeared perturbed. Everyone appeared antagonized. No one is liking the change.
The participants wondered why the government is prejudicial to the interests of  - Businessmen, Government Employees, Muslims, Dalits, and Real Estate Developers & Agents!
I guess PM needs to urgently rework the rules of engagement and communication with people.

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business

The reaction of many global corporations (MNCs) to the attempts by Indian authorities to implement good business practices, global compliance standards, and globally accepted sustainability framework raises doubt over feasibility and desirability of programs and policies like Make in India, liberal FDI regime, fiscal incentives etc.
From the reactions of auto majors towards the ban on diesel vehicles; reaction of foreign investors and businesses to implementation of GAAR and revision of DTAA with tax havens like Mauritius; conditions of local sourcing and employment generation; etc., prima facie it appears that the real pull factor for investing in India may be the "EASE" of doing business in India rather than the "ease of doing business".
There can be no denying the fact that an overwhelming majority of Indian companies have been direct or indirect beneficiary of (a) the inefficiencies of the administration; (b) lack of transparency; (c) incongruent policy framework; (d) unduly supportive politicians; (e) government largesse in form of misdirected subsidies; and (f) protection from fair competition at the expense of consumers, etc. This "EASE" of doing business in India is diminishing under the current regime.
There could be little argument on the fact that the changing structure of India’s socio-economic milieu require tremendous amount of capital investment.
The demand for civil and industrial amenities like power, transportation infrastructure (e.g., roads, airports, railways, ports, waterways etc.), sanitation, water, education and health etc. is rising with conspicuous rise in affordability. The demand for food, especially protein rich food, is also rising in non-linear trend since past decade or so.
However, the supply has not matched the demand in most of these areas leading to serious productivity constraints and persistently high inflation. This trend highlights the urgent need to invest huge amount of capital in building basic infrastructure and improving agro productivity. Unfortunately, all the required capital is not available within the country and we have to rely on the foreign capital for this.
This is as simple as it sounds and we need not complicate the matter. If we need foreign capital, which we do desperately, we need to be consistent in our approach towards investors.
In my view, in the interest of transparency and predictability, the government needs to issue a conceptual framework for the global investors and businesses investing or willing to invest in India.
It would be a good idea to clarify in the preamble of the said framework itself that "India is a well regulated market and it has earnestly embraced the generally accepted global practices & standards for compliance & disclosures. India whole heartedly supports the global sustainability framework and committed to the Paris Agreement on Climate signed in December 2015. India is committed to prevent money laundering and tax evasion." ....to continue

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

May I dare ask a question?

"My father was a great innovator in public life, but when it came to raising his daughters, no one could have been more conservative."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Doctrinaire (adj)
Merely theoretical; impractical, Rigid
Malice towards none
ISRO loses the arbitration case relating to the cancellation of Antrix - Devas deal.
The government might have to shell out $672mn as compensation to Devas Multimedia.
List key learning from the fiasco.
First random thought this morning
GST will happen, monsoon session or the winter session or next year. The cobbler sitting at the corner of my street knows it. So what's the deal.
Do you seriously believe that market is still so inefficient that it has still not factored the cost and benefit of this tax regime change?

May I dare ask a question?

Last Friday 2,00,134 shares of Force Motors Limited were traded on BSE. Though not alarming, this volume was significantly higher as compared to the average daily volume of past few months. However on monthly basis the stock of the company has witnessed below average volumes (month till date).
In a commendable show of alertness, BSE asked the company to explain this spurt in the volume and if there is any development at the company that the market should know.
As per media reports last weekend (see here), "The Finance Ministry has directed all profit making PSUs to use their surplus cash to buy back shares and pay handsome dividend, besides considering issuing bonus shares or going for stock split."
As reported, "The Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) in a recent letter to Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) has asked them to pay dividend at the rate of 30 per cent of net profit or 5 per cent of the networth, whichever is higher." The said letter has purportedly asked the CPSEs "to consider share split if the book value of their shares exceeds 50 times their face value."
Instinctively I believe that the idea behind this directive is to help the government meet its fiscal goals; though the stated objective reportedly is to "encourage participation of small investors in capital markets". as "High price of shares sometimes act as a deterrent for investors to invest in the company and CPSEs needs to decide, from time to time, the option of splitting shares".
I could not find the said letter in public domain (so much for the committed transparency!). On the basis of whatever is reported in the media, I must say that this move raises a number of questions of the propriety, competence and intent. For example, consider the following-
(a)   The people who do not understand the simple basics of equity investment and markets have put in charge of managing enterprises worth trillions.
       Someone may please explain how a stock split or bonus per se increases the value of shareholders. The trading unit of all companies is just one share. Anyone with Rs.15,000 in his purse could buy one share each of 61 listed PSEs which are part of BSE PSU Index. I fail to understand, why a lower price per share would attract more investors.
(b)   Why the exchanges who are prompt enough to ask companies to explain the jump in the daily traded volumes of their listed equity, did not bother to ask these CPSEs, whose shares have seen quantum jump in price and volumes recently. "Why this policy decision was not promptly reported to the exchanges and the minority shareholders, as per the listing guidelines?"
(c)           Since the share prices and traded volumes of PSU stock has definitely seen unusual movements in past few months, Should the market regulator not investigate, like it does in other cases, whether there is any violation of the regulations relating to insider trading, market manipulation or unlawful activities?