In defence of MNCs

We wish a very Happy Diwali to all our Readers.

The next issue of morning Trekk will be published on Monday, 23rd October.

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Thought for the day

I'm living so far beyond my income that we may almost be said to be living apart.

—E. E. Cummings (American, 1894-1962)

Word for the day

Pestiferous (adj)

Bringing or bearing disease.

Malice towards none

Though media did not follow it closely, but Gurdaspur was a bitterly and intensely fought battle, which Captain won comprehensively.

Another wake up call for both BJP and AAP.

First random thought this morning

An (in)famous BJP leader from Western UP is exhorting the government to erase Taj Mahal from history of India. He reportedly claimed that it's a blot on Indian culture. His reported position is, "The creator of Taj Mahal (Shahjahan) imprisoned his father. He wanted to wipe out Hindus. If these people are part of our history, then it is very sad and we will change this history".

Someone needs to tell him, without wasting anytime, that we can't just wish away our history. It is what it is - good or bad. All that you can do is to learn from it, so that mistakes are not repeated. However if he must erase all rulers and people in position of power who tortured/killed their family members for power and/or wealth, it will be a great news for all school children; for they will be left with only blank pages in their history books.

In defence of MNCs

I am not a regular TV watcher. I have also reduced my social media interactions by almost 80% in recent past. For my view and strategy I am therefore completely reliant on what I see with my own eyes and feel with the weight of my own wallet.

Last week, waiting for my flight at airport, I watched a program featuring Patanjali promoter. He was sounding like a warlord. Mincing no words, he avowed that all MNC players in Indian markets will get annihilated very soon.

He implied that his commercial venture is torchbearer of a larger Swadeshi (self reliance) movement taking place. This movement shall chase away all MNCs, like HUL, P&G, Colgate, who have plundered wealth from Indian consumers for over a century.

The allegation is that these companies are plundering money from Indian consumers and taking it abroad to benefit their parent organizations.

I am shocked to note that no one in the government (which appears keen on MNCs investing in India by making India a better, easier and safer place to invest and do business); various business and industry associations (who are duty bound to protect the interest of their members and ensure a level playing field); Supreme Court (who is very vigilant these days); and a variety of other regulators and administrators, have made any murmur of concern over this.

I have noticed that Patanjali marketing campaigns are also overwhelmingly based on (a) an emotion appeal on grounds of patriotism and Swadeshi; and (b) materially better quality of Patanjali products as compared to the products of MNCs.

Insofar as the quality of products and use of "dangerous" chemical etc. is concerned. I am not competent to comment on this subject. Though I tried to figure out and could not find much difference in the ingredients of Patanjali tooth paste and Colgate Herbal toothpaste.

However, I do have an observation to share on the issue of plundering money from Indian consumers.

In my view, the owners of a corporate entity can get money from the entity only in two forms - dividend and return of capital. Return of capital in normal course occurs only if business is wound up (ignore buy backs etc for a while).

An analysis of some companies with top foreign holdings suggests that foreigners own more shares in the companies popularly perceived to be "Indian" rather than those condemned as MNCs.

As per the available record of last dividend paid (FY17), top 9 MNCs paid Rs5848cr as dividend to their foreign shareholders, where as top 13 perceptibly Indian companies paid Rs16050cr as dividend to their foreign shareholders.

Against a dividend remittance of RsRs5848cr, MNCs incurred Rs9775cr as employee cost, which is paid predominantly to Indians. Besides, these MNCs sourced most of their raw material from India, got their products manufactured by Indian contractors (mostly SMEs).

They also support an extensive distribution and logistics chain providing jobs to millions of Indians.

Many of these MNCs have put India on global roadmap, in terms of quality of products, technology, innovation and even export markets. For example, Maruti Suzuki has helped thousands of ancillary units (mostly in SME space) to grow and register their presence in global arena. HUL has cultivated many managers that have grown to become global leaders.

So, I am aghast at the allegation of Patanjali promoters and their intention to annihilate these MNCs.

The Swadeshi champions may also note that if these companies decide to wind up their businesses, sell their assets and take the money home, the outflow will be much larger than what would possibly they remit as dividend in next 20years. The consequent job losses would be catastrophic.

It is only appropriate that the government should come out and explicitly state its stance on this issue.

 

 

( P.S.: I have shared my observations. I am not interested in any debate or arguments on this issue. Comments and rejoinders are totally unwelcome.)

 

My 2 cents for PMEAC

Thought for the day

"The sea has neither meaning nor pity."

—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)

Word for the day

Arcadian (n)

Rural, rustic, or pastoral, especially suggesting simple, innocent contentment.

Malice towards none

Why do we expect our elected representatives to be monks?

First random thought this morning

I am tired of chaffing the media report to segregate the May be True, Likely Fake, and Totally Fake news from the Genuine ones.

At first I found Donald Trump's claim of "total fake" egregious. But slowly I am realizing that doubting everything, when you cannot believe everything, is perhaps the best way of slipping through the banalities of the life. So now I should let it be.

I want to trust only what I can see with my bespectacled & blinkered eyes and be blind and deaf to everything else.

My 2 cents for PMEAC

The newly appointed PMEAC has identified the following 10 focus areas to boost economic growth and employment over the next six months, with greater last-mile connectivity:

1.    Economic growth

2.    Employment and job creation

3.    Informal sector and integration

4.    Fiscal framework

5.    Monetary policy

6.    Public expenditure

7.    Institutions of economic governance

8.    Agriculture and animal husbandry

9.    Patterns of consumption and production

10.  Social sector

Like most others, at first I was tempted to find faults and lacunae in the PMEAC strategy and thought process. The temptation becomes even more irresistible when we factor in the fact that PMEAC is quintessentially designed to materially influence the policy direction of the government.

The problem however is that this negative attitude, which unfortunately has been the hallmark of the opposition politics India, does not serve any purpose, except probably giving some sadistic pleasure for couple of hours.

In my view, it is only appropriate that we the people of India, rise above from the influence of cheap political thrills and accept the government of the day as fait accompli. Only this way we shall be able to contribute positively to the nation building. On the contrary if we keep criticizing the incumbent government and wait for the regime to change, we shall only be losing critical time.

What every citizen needs to remember, in my view, is that every year millions of youth pass out of schools & colleges and join the work force. Given the demographic trend, for a decade or so, the number of new job seekers shall increase every year. Moreover, considering the high pace of change in technology the rate of obsolescence of the skill set shall also rise.

In this scenario, if these youth do not get a job appropriate to their skills within one year of their coming to the job market, there is high probability that they will remain underemployed for most of their professional life, because every year a new batch (incremental larger and better equipped) of potential employees will flood the market.

The time for creating job opportunities therefore is a key factor. If we take five years, we would have already wasted millions of youth, who will remain a burden on the society from next many decades.

I shall give my suggestions in these 10 areas in next couple of weeks.

Demographic accountability - 2

Thought for the day

"When a lot of remedies are suggested for a disease, that means it can't be cured."

—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)

Word for the day

Astrobleme (adj)

An erosional scar on the earth's surface, produced by the impact of a cosmic body, as a meteorite or asteroid.

Malice towards none

The glee on the Congress Vice President's face these days is implying that allegation of impropriety against Shri Jay Amit Shah totally absolve Shri Robert Vadra from all allegations of impropriety!

First random thought this morning

The common rhetorical question of BJP to Congress is that what has been achieved in India in 6 decades of Congress regime. Though I am sure to which political party this credit should go, but the fact is that India has remained united for seven decades is no mean achievement. Despite prolonged violent movements in Punjab and J&K, we have not seen an iota of public support for any type of secessionist movement.

However, given the trend in Europe, it would not be prudent to take this for granted. The government must build the probability in its policy making and make effort to preempt any such move.

An Investor's Diary

Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK's Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, in his recent blog post cautioned the emerging economies for relying too much on the demographic dividend from their burgeoning population. Instead of summarizing his thought at the expense of distorting it, I would like to reproduce it verbatim.

"Across emerging economies, the benefits of a “demographic dividend” have become a familiar refrain. Politicians and business leaders alike – be it in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, or Tanzania – talk glowingly of how a fast-growing and youthful population will create huge investment opportunities and fuel rapid economic growth. But the reality is that in many emerging economies, rapid population growth poses a major threat to development, and technological progress will make that threat even more severe.

For starters, the term “demographic dividend” is being seriously misused. The term was originally used to describe a transition in which countries enjoyed both a one-off increase in the working age population and a significant fall in fertility. That combination produces a high ratio of workers to dependents – both retirees and children – making it easier for high savings to support sufficient investment to drive rapid growth in capital stock.

Rapidly falling fertility, meanwhile, ensures that the next generation inherits a large capital stock per capita: and small family size makes it easier to afford high private or public education spending per child, leading to rapid improvements in workforce skills. South Korea, China, and some other East Asian countries have benefited hugely from such a demographic dividend over the last 40 years.

But without a rapid fall in fertility rates, there is no dividend. If fertility remains high, a low ratio of retirees to workers is offset by a high child dependency ratio, making it difficult to support high education spending per child. And if each new cohort of workers is much larger than the one before, growth in per capita capital stock – whether in infrastructure or plant and equipment – is held back. Rapidly growing working-age populations also make it impossible to create jobs fast enough to prevent widespread underemployment.

This is the bind in which much of Sub-Saharan Africa is still stuck. With moderate GDP growth rates (averaging 4.6% over the last decade) offset by 2.7% annual population growth, per capita income has been growing at less than 2% per year, versus the 7% rate which China achieves. At this rate of progress, Africa will not attain today’s advanced-economy living standards until the mid-2100s.

Pakistan faces a slightly less severe – but still significant – challenge. India’s demography varies by region: while fertility rates are now at or below two in economically dynamic states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat, the big northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are still facing severe demographic headwinds.

Demographic accountability

Thought for the day

"Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out."

—Anton Chekhov (Russian, 1860-1904)

Word for the day

Esprit de corps (n)

A sense of unity and of common interests and responsibilities, as developed among a group of persons closely associated in a task, cause, enterprise, etc.

Malice towards none

How do we identify secular firecrackers?

As per Chetan Bhagat the firecrackers burnt on Diwali are Hindu and those burnt on Eid are Muslim!

First random thought this morning

If we truly believe in the legacy of Ram, Krushna, Bhoj, Vikramditya, Chankya, et. al., we must accept that the King (head of government, chief administrator or Pradhan Sevak, if you like) should be beyond any suspicion. Innocent till proven guilty is applicable to the ordinary people not Kings.

However, to punish the people who may chose to level false and baseless allegations against the King, we may have laws so stringent that no one would dare do that.

Demographic accountability

I have been writing repeatedly about the demographic accountability of India. Unfortunately, while the authorities are quick in claiming demographic dividend of the burgeoning population, the focus on demographic accountability is clearly lacking.

Millions of reams have been used to write and publish about the demographic characteristics of India. Many stories, themes and strategies have been built around the young demographic profile of 1.25bn Indians. Almost all these stories and strategies recognize the young Indian as a great opportunity - "Demographic dividend" for the Indian economy. I have however not come across any presentation that classifies this demographic profile as the solemn accountability and responsibility of India to the world.

The global community has always valued the resource rich nations and expected them to behave in a responsible manner to preserve the global order. The capital rich western world has been expected to help the poor and starved of the world. The world looked forward to them to fund technological advancement, preservation of cultural heritage, assisting global growth and development. Even after taking full cognizance of the allegations of imperialism and suppression, I believe that financially rich communities have worked for the betterment of human life by funding technological innovation, life science research & development, productivity enhancement, and development assistance to the economically lagging world.

Similarly, nations rich in natural resources like minerals etc. have been expected to prospect and exploit these resources in optimum manner to assist the sustenance and growth of the global economy.

My point is that now since India possesses the largest pool of prospective workers for the world, should it not be responsibility of government to prospect, grow, and develop this resource for benefit of global community!

This is even more pertinent in the context of the current global financial crisis. In places like Europe and Japan the root cause of the crisis could be traced to the aging demographic profile. China is also like to join the club in a decade or so. Under the circumstances it is the responsibility of India to provide educated, skilled and trained workforce to the global economy.

A number of research papers and surveys have shown that (a) Child and mother nutrition level in India is sub-standard consequently child mortality rates are poor; (b) higher and professional education standards are extremely poor consequently a large number of Indian graduates are unemployable even in routine jobs; (c) There is acute shortage of competent scientists to scale up research and development (R&T) activities to make Indian businesses competitive at global stage.

"Skill India" and "Make in India" are noble ideas for human resource development. But we need to make sure that these do not end up prospecting and developing only blue collar low skilled workers. In that case India will not only fail in its responsibility to global community but also slither back into the lower orbit of economic development like in 1950-80 ....to continue

Incremental vs. transformative

Thought for the day

"Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Cucurbit (n)

Any plant of the gourd family.

Malice towards none

Mispriced aspirations are quintessentially designed to meet undesirable denouncement.

First random thought this morning

Pirated CDs are sold audaciously in all markets; sex workers and quack sexologists solicit business blatantly by advertizing in national dailies; prohibited alcohol products are advertized in the garb of soda water, playing cards, music CDs, crockery and what not; people drive on the wrong side even on expressways as highway police personnel rub tobacco on their palms.

But no one should dare raise issues like these, for the fear of being termed Shalya.

Incremental vs. transformative

Recently, the prime minister aggressively hit out at his detractors and critics. Visibly perturbed and anguished, he bombarded the audience (worldwide) with tons of economic data, claiming that India has achieved much more in past three years of rule under him, than probably it could achieve in past seven decades. Palpably, he had no doubts whatsoever that his government has achieved much more than what Dr. Manmohan Singh led UPA had achieved in 10years of rule.

Obviously, his supporters who were on back foot since past few weeks, especially after Yashwant Sinha's outburst, came back strongly and #ModiTransformedIndia started trending on social media.

Since, I based my decisions on the premise of "business as usual" not relying on tall promises, I have absolutely no problems with the economic performance of the incumbent government. Moreover, I do not give much credence to economic data quoted selectively by politicians to suit their convenience. As such, I have no comment to offer on PM's speech and claims made therein. Nevertheless, I must share three observations.

Firstly, the whole endeavor of Prime Minister was on establishing how his government is better than the previous administration. In that also, he did only highlight the data like FDI, roads completed, CAD, inflation, electronic manufacturing etc., that has seen improvement in past 3yrs. He may find it little tough to explain, in my view, how come this improvement is not part of a long drawn process that started a long back in 1991, accelerated in 1998 and further boosted during 2003-2007 and well greased in 2013.

Even a cursory study will show that the economic growth in India is business as usual and no transformative change (conceived and implemented by incumbent government) has taken place in past three years. If only, some disruptions, like GST, have taken place, which again were due and anticipated since long.

Secondly, it is unfair for him to benchmark his performance against an establishment which he never forgets to rubbish as paralyzed, enslaved to a family and regressive. He may want to evaluate his performance against his promises or rather the aspirations he has raised. I see the aspirations which were mostly mispriced, correcting to mean, if I may use stock market jargon.

Thirdly, I refuse to believe that the incumbent government has introduced changes, a variant of which we have not seen before (including alleged demonetization and whip on non-compliant citizens) or which has been conceived and implemented ab initio by the incumbent administration. Green Revolution (1960s), Joining GAAT and WTO (1947 & 1995), Industrial Liberalization (1991), Nuclear Tests (1998), and dismantling of government monopoly over energy, roads, ports, telecom, coal, etc, (1998-2004) were some transformative changes to my mind. Providing LPG connection to BPL families and distributing LED bulbs may be transformative for beneficiary households, but not for the economy or country by any stretch of imagination. If that is claimed to be so, then MNREGA and RTE were much more powerful and far reaching changes.

Disclosure: I am a BJP voter since 1989, and will remain so in 2019 too.

Enigma of inflation

Thought for the day

"It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Concatenation (n)

A series of interconnected or interdependent things or events.

Malice towards none

Do the TV channels daily broadcasting sponsored programs of quacks and suspicious preachers have any moral right to speak against superstitions and malpractices prevalent in the society? Also do the newspapers carrying prostitution advertisement under garb of friendship clubs, massage services etc., should be heard on the matter of women exploitation?

First random thought this morning

Is it a mere coincidence or the current administration (both at center and state level) is making serious attempts to correct a number of distortions in the Islamic practices especially relating to mexploitation of Muslim women, like Triple Talaq, NIkah Halala, Nikah Mutah, etc.?

Regardless of anything this is a welcome development and should be appreciated by all.

Making it clear that establishment will not seek to exploit the issue for electoral advantage, may minimize the resistance from Muslim male too.

Enigma of inflation

For a common man like me on the street, who is blissfully ignorant of the principles of economics and public finances, inflation is nothing but an enigma. The rising prices do hit him hard, but that also lead to rise in his nominal income and hence social stature. Higher nominal interest rate on his savings, higher notional value of his house & jewellery; and higher rental for the spare room on the top floor provides him some psychological comfort, at the least.

As I see it, for a common man, inflation is more of an income inequality issue than anything else. For example consider the following:

(a)   A farmer should gain maximum from the food inflation. Given that over 60% population is engaged in the farming and related activities, theoretically consistently high food inflation should result in transfer of wealth from non-farm sector to the farm sector. But this has not been the case in any of the high food inflation episodes in past seven decades. The gap between rural and non-rural income and wealth has been consistently widening.

(b)   The food inflation should also benefit the urban middle class. The expense on food for a typical Indian middle class family is not more than 40% and a typical middle class household saves 25% of his income. If food inflation is 10%, a 5% rise in nominal income should be sufficient to offset that.

Besides, they would need sufficient rise in nominal income and asset prices and interest rates to offset the erosion in real value of their savings. This perhaps has not happened in past many decades, implying that nominal rise in asset prices and interest rates has not been consistent with the general rise in price levels. The wealth is thus consistently getting transferred from savers to borrowers.

(c)    One could argue that transfer of wealth from farmer and urban middle classes to trader and indebted industrialist is a function of risk they take.

But if we consider the history of NPA cycles, and exploits by moneylenders this argument gets weaker. Large borrowers have been consistently transferring the risk to public sector banks, and hence the common public, through frequent defaults. The money lenders in informal sector have been fairly successful in exploiting the household and farmer borrowers, not allowing any benefit of inflation to them.

The equation in energy inflation (mostly imported or arising due to state inefficiency) and core inflation is different, but impact is mostly the same.

In my view, therefore inflation has been a medium of wealth transfer from common man to the rich. The current raging debate over rise in prices of food therefore has to be seem from this angle also.

I have been highlighting that at the current productivity level farming in India is mostly an unremunerative business. A multifold rise in either farm productivity or prices can only correct this situation.

I would seek readers' view on this problem, before I take up it in some detail.

Whose history is it anyways - 4

Thought for the day

"The art of medicine consists in amusing the patient while nature cures the disease."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Oceanicity (n)

The degree to which the climate of a place is influenced by the sea.

Malice towards none

Could Trump do to Kim what Bush Jr. did to Saddam?

First random thought this morning

It is surprising to see that investors who were bullish on Indian equities due to "strong macro" fundamentals, seem even more bullish at the prospects of fiscal profligacy in the form of fiscal stimulus (now that government has finally admitted to the deterioration in economic health of the country). The current account has already joined the weak spots of the economy category.

Despite a "no show" for four long years (FY13-FY17), there are many who still feel earnings will present a gala show this year and the next. May the wolf come soon, while villagers are still listening to the shepherd boy!

Whose history is it anyways - 4        

I have received a large amount of hate mail for my views expressed in past three days. I am grateful to all those who took pain to write. This fully corroborates what I have been observing during my travels and trying to highlight here.

I do not want to engage in any political debate. I am certainly not concerned about the knowledge of our politicians about history and economics of India. I also do not wish to sermonize anyone or judge any party or organization by their recent activities, iterations, and ideologies, or lack of it for that matter.

I would like to limit myself to my economic interests and in my view, the rising insolence and cynicism in a society can never be a good news for its economy.

Many people would agree with me on my assessment that the incumbent government has introduced a fair degree of unpredictability in policy making in the country. The policy paralysis that was widely believed to be the hallmark mark of the previous government has been replaced by the elements of unpredictability and radicalism. Though not worrisome per se, this tendency has unwittingly put the administration and the people impacted by the fiscal policies on path of confrontation. Consequently—

(a)   Suspicious of future policy direction; unconvinced of government promises, and uncertain about the stability of current policy regime - people are deferring both investment and discretionary consumption decisions. One may argue that the growth in sales of automobile and white goods is not indicating much slowdown in discretionary consumption demand. To this I must reply that the growth trajectory of it has certainly moved down and lower return on recent capex (and any incremental capex) may make it conspicuous.

(b)   Confidence in broader India growth story supported well by global enthusiasm, juxtaposed to skepticism raised by unpredictability & instability of policy and general social distress, is creating a deal of cognitive dissonance impacting the decision making as well as disposition of businesses.

(c)    The economy faces a potential threat of getting pushed into a vicious cycle of lower growth-lower employment-lower income-lower consumption-lower investment-lower growth, if immediate steps are not taken to improve business and consumer confidence.

The dilemma however would be that it may challenge the fiscal discipline, which had been one of the most important rallying point for investors' confidence. An unmindful fiscal stimulus at this stage could disturb the inflation-growth equilibrium by pushing prices and rates higher.

I shall therefore continue to maintain an extremely cautious stance on Indian equities for next 12-18months. At the risk of facing ridicule from my peers, I would go underweight on NBFCs, capital goods, and lower middle class consumption, in particular.

Whose history is it anyways - 3

Thought for the day

"History should be written as philosophy."

—Voltaire (French 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Clandestine (adj)

Characterized by, done in, or executed with secrecy or concealment, especially for purposes of subversion or deception; private or surreptitious:

Malice towards none

Should we assume that Jadeja is now a "test only" player!!

First random thought this morning

It is commonly said that if you want to understand the immediate concerns of a society, you should watch most popular cinema and TV news. Going by this adage, I find the following as most pressing problems of Indian society this morning:

Rohingya refugees; Honeypreet Singh; Safety of school kids; ceasefire violation by Pak; Petrol prices; erectile dysfunction; open defecation.

Whose history is it anyways - 3

When a politician in power says that Mughals were plunderers who looted India, it is not just the misplaced perception manifesting itself under the garb of nationalism. It is much more than that.

It is frustration over steep degeneration of traditional Indian culture and values.

Any politician or social worker who has at least one of his feet on ground fully realizes that the data revolution created through advancements in the telecommunication sector is being used significantly for frivolities (mostly gossip and pornography) besides of course enhancing productivity.

It is a deep running desire to restore ancient Vedic culture in order to establish India as global superpower - economic, cultural, and strategic.

The unfortunate part is that those desiring restoration of Vedic culture suffer from ignorance and deep prejudices. They desire to downsize local Muslim populace, while keeping all the discrepancies (for lack of a proper word) that crept in the Vedic traditions during past 1200years of Islamic influence. Unequal place for women is widely noted as one such discrepancy.

The CM and Deputy CM of the largest state in the country, which has benefitted the most from the Mughal rule, saying that Mughals plundered India, raises serious questions. These assertions diminish our faith in the capability of the government to implement a sustainable development agenda. These also make us skeptical about law and order conditions.

For records, as per my understanding of history, all Mughal rulers after Humayun, were born and brought up in India. They lived, married, ruled and died in India. Almost all of them were of mixed race (Mughal and Rajput). After Maurayans, Akbar was the first ruler to unify India as a political entity. During 1500-1700AD, when Mughals ruled India, India's share of global GDP rose from 22% to over 24%. The first industrial revolution in India happened during Mughal rule, when Indian textile, leather and shipping industry flourished to become the leader in the world. Mughals invested heavily in infrastructure especially roads and unbranization. Our traders (mostly Hindus), riding on Mughal ships and horses travelled to the global markets, sold their produce for gold. That is how India became the Bird of Gold, given that we were never a significant producer of gold.

Influenced by the dialogues of 1960 Hindi movie Mughal-E-Azam, some leaders have tried to connect Mughal rulers of India with Turco-Mongol invaders Ghenghis Khan and Timur. I can guarantee it would take them at least 6months, if not more, to establish connection between Ghenghis Khan and Babur (who laid the foundation of Mughal rule in India), without using the internet.

My travels across the country in past three decades have told me that India is changing fast, but not necessarily in the direction many of us would desire. Not focusing on the direction of change could nullify the impact of the change itself, in my view......to continue