Thursday, July 28, 2016

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business

"Birds sing after a storm; why shouldn't people feel as free to delight in whatever sunlight remains to them?."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Arrears (Plural noun)
The state of being behind or late, especially in the fulfillment of a duty, promise, obligation, or the like, e.g., Many homeowners have fallen into arrears.
Malice towards none
16years and two bypass surgeries later Bill Clinton may again get a chance to enter the White House. But this time nothing else to do!
First random thought this morning
Yesterday evening got an opportunity to attend a meeting of traders' body as special invitee. The topic of discussion was the evolving policy framework under the incumbent government. Everyone appeared perturbed. Everyone appeared antagonized. No one is liking the change.
The participants wondered why the government is prejudicial to the interests of  - Businessmen, Government Employees, Muslims, Dalits, and Real Estate Developers & Agents!
I guess PM needs to urgently rework the rules of engagement and communication with people.

"EASE" vs. "ease" of doing business

The reaction of many global corporations (MNCs) to the attempts by Indian authorities to implement good business practices, global compliance standards, and globally accepted sustainability framework raises doubt over feasibility and desirability of programs and policies like Make in India, liberal FDI regime, fiscal incentives etc.
From the reactions of auto majors towards the ban on diesel vehicles; reaction of foreign investors and businesses to implementation of GAAR and revision of DTAA with tax havens like Mauritius; conditions of local sourcing and employment generation; etc., prima facie it appears that the real pull factor for investing in India may be the "EASE" of doing business in India rather than the "ease of doing business".
There can be no denying the fact that an overwhelming majority of Indian companies have been direct or indirect beneficiary of (a) the inefficiencies of the administration; (b) lack of transparency; (c) incongruent policy framework; (d) unduly supportive politicians; (e) government largesse in form of misdirected subsidies; and (f) protection from fair competition at the expense of consumers, etc. This "EASE" of doing business in India is diminishing under the current regime.
There could be little argument on the fact that the changing structure of India’s socio-economic milieu require tremendous amount of capital investment.
The demand for civil and industrial amenities like power, transportation infrastructure (e.g., roads, airports, railways, ports, waterways etc.), sanitation, water, education and health etc. is rising with conspicuous rise in affordability. The demand for food, especially protein rich food, is also rising in non-linear trend since past decade or so.
However, the supply has not matched the demand in most of these areas leading to serious productivity constraints and persistently high inflation. This trend highlights the urgent need to invest huge amount of capital in building basic infrastructure and improving agro productivity. Unfortunately, all the required capital is not available within the country and we have to rely on the foreign capital for this.
This is as simple as it sounds and we need not complicate the matter. If we need foreign capital, which we do desperately, we need to be consistent in our approach towards investors.
In my view, in the interest of transparency and predictability, the government needs to issue a conceptual framework for the global investors and businesses investing or willing to invest in India.
It would be a good idea to clarify in the preamble of the said framework itself that "India is a well regulated market and it has earnestly embraced the generally accepted global practices & standards for compliance & disclosures. India whole heartedly supports the global sustainability framework and committed to the Paris Agreement on Climate signed in December 2015. India is committed to prevent money laundering and tax evasion." ....to continue

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

May I dare ask a question?

"My father was a great innovator in public life, but when it came to raising his daughters, no one could have been more conservative."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Doctrinaire (adj)
Merely theoretical; impractical, Rigid
Malice towards none
ISRO loses the arbitration case relating to the cancellation of Antrix - Devas deal.
The government might have to shell out $672mn as compensation to Devas Multimedia.
List key learning from the fiasco.
First random thought this morning
GST will happen, monsoon session or the winter session or next year. The cobbler sitting at the corner of my street knows it. So what's the deal.
Do you seriously believe that market is still so inefficient that it has still not factored the cost and benefit of this tax regime change?

May I dare ask a question?

Last Friday 2,00,134 shares of Force Motors Limited were traded on BSE. Though not alarming, this volume was significantly higher as compared to the average daily volume of past few months. However on monthly basis the stock of the company has witnessed below average volumes (month till date).
In a commendable show of alertness, BSE asked the company to explain this spurt in the volume and if there is any development at the company that the market should know.
As per media reports last weekend (see here), "The Finance Ministry has directed all profit making PSUs to use their surplus cash to buy back shares and pay handsome dividend, besides considering issuing bonus shares or going for stock split."
As reported, "The Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM) in a recent letter to Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) has asked them to pay dividend at the rate of 30 per cent of net profit or 5 per cent of the networth, whichever is higher." The said letter has purportedly asked the CPSEs "to consider share split if the book value of their shares exceeds 50 times their face value."
Instinctively I believe that the idea behind this directive is to help the government meet its fiscal goals; though the stated objective reportedly is to "encourage participation of small investors in capital markets". as "High price of shares sometimes act as a deterrent for investors to invest in the company and CPSEs needs to decide, from time to time, the option of splitting shares".
I could not find the said letter in public domain (so much for the committed transparency!). On the basis of whatever is reported in the media, I must say that this move raises a number of questions of the propriety, competence and intent. For example, consider the following-
(a)   The people who do not understand the simple basics of equity investment and markets have put in charge of managing enterprises worth trillions.
       Someone may please explain how a stock split or bonus per se increases the value of shareholders. The trading unit of all companies is just one share. Anyone with Rs.15,000 in his purse could buy one share each of 61 listed PSEs which are part of BSE PSU Index. I fail to understand, why a lower price per share would attract more investors.
(b)   Why the exchanges who are prompt enough to ask companies to explain the jump in the daily traded volumes of their listed equity, did not bother to ask these CPSEs, whose shares have seen quantum jump in price and volumes recently. "Why this policy decision was not promptly reported to the exchanges and the minority shareholders, as per the listing guidelines?"
(c)           Since the share prices and traded volumes of PSU stock has definitely seen unusual movements in past few months, Should the market regulator not investigate, like it does in other cases, whether there is any violation of the regulations relating to insider trading, market manipulation or unlawful activities?

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

What's driving markets - 2

"Make sure you never, never argue at night. You just lose a good night's sleep, and you can't settle anything until morning anyway."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Ambrosial (adj)
Exceptionally pleasing to taste or smell; especially delicious or fragrant. Worthy of Gods.
Malice towards none
The paranoid media is quick to brand all acts of individual violence as "terrorist attack".
Politicians are in a hurry to respond to "breaking news".
First random thought this morning
Many of my friends live in Mumbai. They all are good, except that they all suffer from a strong notion that unlike Mumbaikars, North Indians are gaudy, clumsy, and lack in commitment. Regardless that most of these friends actually have their roots in North India.
I watched two of my favorite 1970s Hindi movies (Chhoti Si Baat and Rajnigandha) this weekend. Both movies show visuals and life of Mumbai city extensively. It was indeed a simple and beautiful city back then.
Anybody who has visited the maximum city recently, would agree - it no longer is the city, it used to be. Place has changed, people have changed, so should the notions!

What's driving markets - 2

As mentioned last Friday (see here) a seed of worry is sprouting somewhere back at my mind. The more I strive to find the drivers of current equity rally, the more I get confused.
I do not see the current earnings or dividend yield sitting at the driver seat. It is therefore purely the PER re-rating that explains the current upsurge in equity prices.
As a broader benchmark, a conservative investor like me is usually comfortable with a PER between 10-20 for non-cyclical businesses. For cyclical commodity businesses the comfort would end in 8-10 band.
I do not like valuing asset heavy businesses with relatively longer and unpredictable revenue cycles on price to book (P/B) or replacement cost basis; because it goes against the principle of going concern. If at all these businesses might be valued at Net Realizable Value (NRV) for limited purposes of judging solvency conditions.
Evaluating financial stocks purely on the basis of net book value is also mostly not a good idea. It is important to consider the profitability and reliability of the book as such.
These days any query on corporate database would throw a long (ominously long) list of stocks trading at EV/EBIDTA ratio of over 20. (EV = Market capitalization plus Net Debt; and EBIDTA is broadly pre-tax cash earning). It is even more scary to read research reports early in the morning which find stocks with EV/EBIDTA ratio of 20+ as attractively valued.
In case you find this blabbering of mine too academic, I agree. Whenever I suffer from indecisiveness or I am confounded, I go back to text books in search of a solution.
In my view currently the following three are the primary drivers of equity prices in India:
(a)   Hope of material improvement in corporate earnings. Rise in public expenditure (both revenue and capital); hope of revival in rural consumption post good season of rains; lower cost of production (persistently lower global commodity prices, lower cost of funds, and improved productivity) and better realizations are some factors that are kindling this hope. Though not completely baseless, in my view hopes of 20%+ earnings growth in FY18-19 may not materialize. The prices may therefore have crossed over the line of reasonableness and heading towards the territory of bubbles.
(b)   Incessant flow of foreign funds. Negligible cost abundant availability od funds in developed economies is motivating many investors, traders and arbitrageurs, to look for opportunities in high yielding places like India. This trade I have seen many times before. Trust me, every time it had been ferocious. On the way up and on the way down. The upswing we are witnessing and enjoying. Please keep your seatbelts fastened for the descent, though it might be some time away.
(c)    The alternatives like gold, bonds, real estate are looking even worse.
 

Monday, July 25, 2016

Nifty: market re-fueling in the air

Thought for the day
"I've had an exciting time; I married for love and got a little money along with it."
—Rose Kennedy (American, 1890-1995)
Word for the day
Megillah (n)
A lengthy and tediously complicated situation or matter. or A lengthy, detailed explanation or account:, e.g., Just give me the facts, not the whole megillah.
Malice towards none
NGT has banned vehicles older than 15yr from plying in Delhi with immediate effect.
Congress has moved Ms. Dixit, who was CM of Delhi for 15yrs, to UP.
First random thought this morning
No urgency is visible amongst the government quarters to handle the situation in the Kota (Rajasthan ) factories, where a number of young students committed suicide in recent months. Neither anyone is explaining how this is different from farmers' suicide? The 3 idiots (Amir Khan, Chetan Bhagat and Raju Hirani) are also not owning any responsibility for this.

Nifty: market re-fueling in the air

Technically, Nifty is gaining strength with each passing day. Nifty has so far absorbed a host of 'below expectation' results; in a disappointment for analysts and the traders waiting for a correction.
So far Nifty is not showing any sign of a material correction in the offing. This is despite the short term indicators continuously hovering at the border of overbought territory.
In my analysis, the reason for Nifty's apparent resilience is the frequent and sharp sectoral re-balancing. It is akin to a jet fighter's ability to refuel in the air, without any need to land on ground to refill its fuel tanks.
In few months we have seen, sharp and deep corrections in sectors like pharma (10-25%), IT (10-15%), PSU banks (5-12%), etc. The popular plays in the broader markets have also experienced 10-25% fall in prices.
I expect this trend to continue in next few months, as Nifty inches towards new highs.
I am closely watching a firm closing above 8710 on Nifty. I feel, this should lead it to new highs in a blink. For Bank Nifty the corresponding level would be 19450.
This week is eventful with BoJ, FOMC and F&O expiry lined up. This Monday morning however, Nifty and Bank Nifty are showing any intention to make a major move this week. The ranges 8330-8630 for Nifty and 18250-19150 for Bank Nifty may act boundaries.
 
 

Friday, July 22, 2016

What's driving markets

"I think being a woman is like being Irish. Everyone says you're important and nice, but you take second place all the same."
—Iris Murdoch (Irish, 1919-1999)
Word for the day
Campestral (adj)
Of or relating to fields or open country.
Malice towards none
Why should anybody be afraid of Donald Trump as US president?
or
Hillary Clinton for that matter!
First random thought this morning
25years of economic reforms have certainly done a lot of good to the country. It is therefore an occasion worth celebrating. The moot point is how do we celebrate.
One thought could be to stop for a while, look back, feel proud, gather more pace and begin journey on the same path with even more vigor.
The other thought might be to conclude this chapter as a happy ending; and begin a new chapter with a different plot.

What's driving markets

The Indian benchmark equity indices are up ~8% YTD. Broader market indices have performed even better. Most mutual funds and PMS schemes have grown much faster than the indices.
Like most others, I am also happy to see the value of my portfolio higher. However, being an absolute return investor, I cannot prevent the seed of worry sprouting in a corner of my mind. I must know what is driving the stock prices higher.
If the rise is sustainable, I do not mind a few percentage point higher return. However, if it is just air that is causing formation of bubbles, I cannot wait for someone to prick it.
In conventional sense, the return on the investment in publically traded equity is a function of 3 factors (a) earnings growth; (b) changes in price earnings (PE) ratio and (c) dividend.
The earnings growth is a function of multiple factors, e.g., (a) capacity (production capability); (b) demand environment (market leadership); (c) competitive landscape (pricing power, cost advantage); (d) innovation and technology advantage; (e) resource availability (raw material, labor, capital, managerial bandwidth etc.), etc.
The price earnings ratio (PER), one of the most popular equity valuation criteria, is the ratio between the earnings of a company and its market value. It broadly signifies that at the current rate of earnings how many years it will take for the company to add the value which an investor is paying today. Principally, an acceptable PER for a company's stock is defined by (a) the return on equity (RoE) a company is able to generate on sustainable basis and (b) the growth rate of earnings that could be achieved on sustainable basis. A company that could generate higher RoE consistently and is likely to grow faster, should be assigned a higher PER as compared to the ones which generate lower RoE or has low or highly cyclical earnings growth.
A rise in PER, if not commensurate with the rise in earnings profile needs deeper scrutiny.
Sometime the rise in PER occurs due to correction in anomalies (undervaluation) of the past. This is a welcome move.
Sometime, PER changes (re-rates) due to relative forces, e.g., rise of PER in comparable foreign markets or change in return profile of alternative assets like bonds, gold, real estate etc. This is usually unsustainable and therefore a short term phenomenon.
Many times, demand-supply mismatch in publically traded equities also drives re-rating of PER (excess liquidity chasing few stocks and vice versa). This is again usually a short term phenomenon.
Sustainable rise in dividend yield is generally a sign of stable profitability growth (P&L improvement) and strong financial position (B/S improvement) and stronger cash flows. In some cases however it could reflect stagnation in growth.....to continue next week.

Thursday, July 21, 2016

That is the precise point! Sir - 3

"There is no substitute for the comfort supplied by the utterly taken-for-granted relationship."
—Iris Murdoch (Irish, 1919-1999)
Word for the day
Tweedle (v)
To lure by music, e.g., The Pied Piper tweedled the children into following him.
Malice towards none
Mohd. Shahid was truly a magician with the stick.
I am fortunate that he guided me once when I was in junior camp. The stick gifted by him, after I played with him for 45minutes, is still my most precious possession.
First random thought this morning
Sachin Tendulkar's act of seeking favor from a minister for his friend raises three pertinent questions:
(a)   Does the process for selecting Bharat Ratna awardees need to be overhauled. May the highest honor be conferred only posthumously?
(b)   Should the elected representatives who do not conduct themselves in accordance with the constitutional oath of office to act "without affection or ill-will" and "without fear or favor", be barred from public life and tried for sedition?
(c)    Why the ROI (return on investment) for elected representatives should be greater than Zero?

That is the precise point! Sir - 3

As I highlighted yesterday (see here) government, planning administration and the monetary regulator all fully appreciate the skewed structure of the inflation. They must also have realized that the impact of inflation is not uniform for different segments of the society. Unfortunately, this knowledge and understanding is not adequately reflected in their actions.
Ostensibly, both the monetary and fiscal policies have focused either on the:
(a)    Miniscule top end of the spectrum that has led to perilous widening of socio-economic inequalities and added little to the sustainability of economic growth. In each business and economic cycle we see this section coming under stress rather easily, seek even more assistance from the government, and bring the financial system to the brink; or
(b)    The large, vulnerable and politically relevant bottom of the spectrum. Historically, most of these efforts have occurred without building robust delivery mechanism; have been based on ad hoc policies driven by electoral considerations; and has led to dissipation of scarce resources.
       Though, in recent times, efforts have been made to improve delivery mechanism through financial inclusion (JAM, DBT) and use of technology (UID) etc.
       This effort will certainly bear fruit in future. But if ad hocism and electoral consideration continue to dominate, the results may still not be optimal.
The consequences are for everyone to see. None of the segments is satisfied.
The question is what is the way out. In my view, a combination of the following could work:
(a)   Minimize capital controls. Allow foreign capital to move freely in all sectors. Make policies stable, predictable and friendly. Support competitive domestic businesses to grow and let the uncompetitive domestic businesses to fail.
(b)   Provide necessary escape velocity to the middle and lower middle class households by leaving more cash in their hands for consumption and investment. High quality public health, education and transportation would help in a big way. Subsidized housing and lower taxes are must.
(c)    Make a comprehensive long term sustainable support system for the bottom of the pyramid. Improving delivery mechanism, and targeting subsidies is quintessential. Make a legislation that prevents a political party claiming exclusive credit for whatever it has done with the public money. Let them claim credit for what they have achieved through spending from party funds. This may take electoral consideration out of fiscal policies.
(d)   Encourage Indian entrepreneurs to lease manufacturing facilities in China for producing consumer goods to be sold exclusively in India at cheaper rate. Local manufacturing should focus on high tech, high value add industries and services.

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

That is the precise point! Sir - 2

"Truth is so generic."
—Iris Murdoch (Irish, 1919-1999)
Word for the day
Nixie (n)
A letter or parcel that is undeliverable by the post office because of a faulty or illegible address.
Malice towards none
Historically, many bull markets in India have ended with a hugely successful mega IPO.
Do ICICI Pru life or Vodafone qualify to be the killjoy?
First random thought this morning
The recently released manifesto of the Republican Party of USA, may sound music to many Indian ears.
The 58 page documents clearly acknowledges India as geopolitical ally and strategic trading partner, while expressing concern over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
The moot point is "are we ready to be the strategic ally of the USA for few more dollars?" Especially if it involves providing a base to US forces for launching attacks in South Asia and pacific; supporting US stance on contentious global issues; and increased incursions at our borders.

That is the precise point! Sir - 2

I am sure the government, planning administration and the monetary regulator all fully appreciate the skewed structure of the inflation. These must also have realized that the impact of inflation is not uniform for different segments of the society. Unfortunately, this knowledge and understanding is not adequately reflected in their actions. This could be one of the primary reasons behind the inefficacy of the entire price control and stabilization effort.
For example, consider the following:
(a)    The bottom of the pyramid (~35% population that is below poverty line) may be more or less insulated from inflation. This segment mostly consumes cereals and obtains their staple ration through PDS or sustenance farming; avails subsidized public transport, education and primary healthcare; lives in mud houses, footpath, urban slums, workplace; usually does not have paid electricity and water connections; and does not borrow much from organized sector.
       Secondary & tertiary healthcare, agri input, and to some extent transportation inflation is a matter of serious concern for them. Effective implementation of food security, better connectivity, drinking water, sanitation and secondary healthcare close to home would provide material comfort to this section of the society.
       Lower interest rate along with adequate financial inclusion will only make their life easier through more employment opportunities for them, and provide greater fiscal leverage to government for increasing social sector spending.
(b)    Mid and small level famers (~15% of the population) love food inflation as it augments their income. Since, they share many traits of the consumption pattern of BPL families, food and household inflation may not bother them much in routine life. Though the aspirations are hurt and growth is impacted. Lower interest rates will serve them materially even if it means higher inflation.
(c)    Urban, semi-urban households suffer from a variety of inflation. Prominent amongst these are education, health, energy, transportation, communication, rental, protein, fruit and vegetable. The political rhetoric and central banker's focus exclude many of these critical elements in their fight against inflation. Better public health, public education and public transport services, affordable housing with employment opportunities closer to home would be a more suitable solution here.
       The subsidy program for LED lights and fans is an illustrative example of a perfect solution as it improves energy efficiency & sustainability for the economy and lowers energy cost for the household with minimal fiscal implications.
(d)   The upper echelons of the society (~3% of the population) cares least about consumer inflation as their consumption vs. income ratio is extremely low.
       This sections of the society cares least about consumer inflation as their consumption vs. income ratio is extremely low. On the other hand the deflationary trend in producers' prices is hurting them badly. Most producers are struggling with poor pricing power and lack of demand. Lower interest rate and higher manufactured price inflation will help these producers. Thus investment and employment will grow.
       Debt laden infra and realty developers are more concerned with inflated cost of capital and wage inflation. Energy and transportation cost also bothers them. Better execution standards, simpler administrative procedures, automation, good corporate governance structure, stricter compliance norms and vibrant retail debt market could alleviate many problems for this sector.
(e)    The upper middle class (~10% of the population) again is not bothered about food inflation as much as it is about higher rates. Staples' consumption may not constitute more than 10% of their household income. Lower rates may however help them grow faster in their own enterprises, and invest more in real estate, and capital markets.
(f)    The non-farming middle class and lower middle class (~35% of the population) bears the most of the brunt of consumer inflation. Food, health, education, travel, etc. partake material part of their household income. This is the section that needs maximum protection from inflation. Unfortunately, this is the section that gets least attention in the whole exercise.
       They are often suppressed through imposition of inflation tax (negative real rates through household inflation minus term deposit rate). This tax, paid mostly by poor and middle class savers for cheaper financing of “crony socialism” and unscrupulous businessmen, has caused serious damage to the basic fundamentals of the Indian economy.
The moot point here is "how the higher lending rates are helping this segment?"
In my view, the focus of policy should be on providing escape velocity to the middle and lower middle class households. Moving this tremendous mass of people to a higher economic strata will provide Indian economy the critical demand base that is necessary for higher growth on sustainable basis.
Once this mass enters the virtuous cycle of "more income-more saving-more consumption-more investment-more income", the potency to address the upliftment of the bottom of the pyramid may increase exponentially.
In post independence period the policy focus has always been away from this most potent section of the society.
...to continue tomorrow