Posts

Change in market context

Thought for the day ”In all history there is no war which was not hatched by the governments, the governments alone, independent of the interests of the people, to whom war is always pernicious even when successful." -           Leo Tolstoy (Russian, 1828-1910) Word for the day Bel-esprit (n) A person of great wit or intellect. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day I am a young political aspirant. Please give me two good reasons why should I join the Congress Party. Change in market context The domestic political events and global market movement last week highlight a change in short term market context. The reverses suffered by the Congress Party in recent Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections have further strengthened the ruling BJP. The government is now in an even better position to pursue its socio-economic agenda of inclusive growth. The results a...

Cheaper food prices do not cure sick metabolism

Thought for the day ”Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without." -           Confucius (Chinese,551-479BC) Word for the day Mythomane (n) A person with a strong or irresistible propensity for fantasizing, lying, or exaggerating. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Should Congress sack A. K. Anthony for misguiding the party on reasons for loss in 2014 general elections? Cheaper food prices do not cure sick metabolism The conspiracy theories on falling oil prices are stretching it too far, in my view. I guess, most theories ignore that materially lower prices could cause more harm to the global economy than the higher prices. It is pertinent to note that the breakeven price for North America shale gas, which is popularly believed to be the primary reason behind fall in global crude prices, is much higher. Since 2007 the fiscal breakeven for crude oil has ...

Lucky oye!

Thought for the day ”Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." -           Confucius (Chinese,551-479BC) Word for the day Habitué (n) One who habitually frequents a place. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day High Court has disqualified 5 HJC MLAs with retrospective effect. Does it render the legislative decision taken with their votes void ab initio? Lucky oye! Yesterday I expressed my concerns over investors in Indian markets relying too much on PM Modi's luck and lower global energy prices. I feel a prudent investment strategy needs to evaluate sustainability of both. Insofar as the "luck" part is concerned, it is rather simple. Considering PM's lucky time started 14yr ago, some caution would be in order. Energy prices are far more complex. This involves too many, often diverging, consideration - from geo-political, economic, ...

Devil's advocate

Thought for the day ”Death and life have their determined appointments; riches and honors depend upon heaven." -           Confucius (Chinese,551-479BC) Word for the day Accidence (n) The rudiments or essentials of a subject. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day List names of 21 politicians whose political career will end on 19th October 2014! Devil's advocate The IIP growth data for August 2014 mandates a reality check on Indian economy. It validates our premise that investment led growth is not a valid theme as yet. In my view the IIP growth data for September may not be substantially better than August . Given the sub-optimal   monsoon this year and slow service sector growth, 2QFY15 GDP growth may not meet rather optimist expectations. Though I do not see a material let down in the optimism over new government in immediate term, the GDP growth fore...

Some random thoughts

Thought for the day ”It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop." -           Confucius (Chinese,551-479BC) Word for the day Frisson (n) A sudden, passing sensation of excitement; a shudder of emotion; thrill (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day "57% of Mumbai citizens surveyed say our MLAs are corrupt." This reflects upon whom? Some random thoughts Nobel prize "You don't need to wear a patch on your arm to have honor", Lt. Kaffee (Tom Cruise) told marine LC Harold Dawson (Wolfgang Bodison) in the last sequence of popular 1992 Hollywood drama "A Few Good Men". Two gentlemen Kailash Satyarthi and K. Radhakrishnan have made India and all Indians feel proud in past two weeks. These two have certainly inspired millions of youth and children to pursue the path of justice and excellence. I have still not heard any voice asking Bharat...

Power of denominator

Thought for the day ”The lack of money is the root of all evil." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Concomitant (Adj) Accompanying; attendant; occurring or existing concurrently. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day I heard Modi implicitly claiming in an election rally that for the first time in the entire history of Bharat because of him the world community has recognized India as a force to reckon with. Do RSS and other Hindu nationalist organizations accept this? Have not we always believed that Bharat had been a world leader since the beginning of human civilization? Power of denominator My father once explained me the formula of happiness. He said, "your happiness is equal to your income divided by your needs. If your needs are zero, your happiness is infinite and if your needs are infinite, your happiness is zero, notwithsta...

It's windy, wet and depressing out there

Thought for the day ”All generalizations are false, including this one." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Foremost (Adj, Adv) First in place, order, rank, etc. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Lalu Prasad Yadav was given bail after 10months. So may be the case with J. Jayalalithaa. So what is the law here? Should we have a definite law for bail in different cases, or it should continue to be a matter of discretion of the presiding judge? It's windy, wet and depressing out there The weather in global markets has suddenly turned grey. The sunshine has disappeared. It's all windy and wet out there. The chill is not biting yet. The Absolute Return Letter for the month of October puts the mood succinctly, and I take liberty to quote - "When I look at the world passing by outside my window, there is little doubt in my  ...

My "truth" not the same as yours

Thought for the day ”To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Supplant (trn verb) To take the place of (another), especially through intrigue or underhanded tactics; as, a rival supplants another. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Congress in catch-22 over the issue "whether it carries a national legacy or its legacy is limited to the Party itself." If Gandhi, Nehru, Patel, Azad were national leaders then any Indian can claim their legacy. If they were just Congress leaders, what legacy is there to claim? My "truth" not the same as yours I believe this world is like a prism. You see different pictures, colors and hues depending upon from which angle you are viewing the world and in what light you are viewing. Therefore, while all views and colors are equally valid, your "truth" ...

Some catching up

Thought for the day ”It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt." -           Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910) Word for the day Stoic (n) Not affected by passion; indifferent to pleasure or pain, joy or grief. (Source: Dictionary.com) Teaser for the day Should the government enforce a mandatory "Annual Cleanliness Certification" for all residential areas (urban and rural). All elected representatives (Corporator/Panchayat member, MLA, MP etc, of the areas should be collectively responsible for obtaining the certificate from the "National Cleanliness Authority of India". Some catching up After having a great holiday in panoramic Himachal Pradesh, I am back to work. I have spent past two days catching up with the events of past ten days. It appears to me that last week was quite eventful in terms of news flow. T...