Thought for the day
”All generalizations are false, including this one."
-
Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910)
Word for the day
Foremost (Adj, Adv)
First in place, order, rank, etc.
(Source:
Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Lalu Prasad Yadav was given bail after 10months. So may be
the case with J. Jayalalithaa.
So what is the law here?
Should we have a definite law for bail in different cases,
or it should continue to be a matter of discretion of the presiding judge?
It's windy, wet and depressing out there
The weather in global markets has suddenly turned grey. The
sunshine has disappeared. It's all windy and wet out there. The chill is not
biting yet.
The Absolute Return Letter for the month of October puts the
mood succinctly, and I take liberty to quote - "When I look at the
world passing by outside my window, there is little doubt in my mind that the world is not as safe today as
it was six months ago. For starters we
have just had a very important referendum in Scotland. We now know the
outcome but not yet the full implications. In about 3 years – unless Labour
regains
the control of the UK parliament – we will have an even more
important referendum in the UK (more important economically if not emotionally)
on the future relationship between the UK and the EU.
In the meantime, Putin and his cronies have played a very
dangerous game in Ukraine. This is his third war, following armed conflicts
with both Chechnya and Georgia, and the signs are that he is not going to walk
away quietly. Even without Putin’s (outright) involvement, we have armed
conflicts and new terror threats in many countries at present. Libya, Syria,
Iraq, Sudan and Israel/Palestine to name a few.
In Europe, the economic recovery is limited to a handful of
countries and the ECB has been forced to not only prolong but also intensify
its de facto QE programme. The European powerhouse of yesteryear, Germany,
looks surprisingly vulnerable and Italy is not in a good state either. The
combination of almost zero inflation and high national debt, as in the case of
Italy, is a bad one."
Many other are echoing the same sentiments. Some like Stephen
King even going to the extent of calling the situation akin to 1984 where
war was a constant thing.
Analysts at Brookings find that "The economic recovery in
many advanced economies is stalling and growth in emerging markets seems to be
losing its momentum, according to the latest TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the
Global Economic Recovery) update. The U.S. is now the sole major economy still
showing signs of strength."
The latest release of TIGER (Brookings-FT Tracking Indices for
the Global Economic Recovery) paints a grim picture. The world economy is in a
parlous state, with just a couple of bright spots discernible through the
gloom.
The global economic recovery has stalled and become unbalanced,
with the U.S. now the sole major economy still showing signs of strength.
Growth in China and many other major emerging markets seems to be losing
momentum. The world economy is now being powered along essentially by one
engine, with the U.S. business cycle at least temporarily delinking from the
rest of the world. (read
more detail here)
Indian economy has shown signs of stability, though at a much
below potential level of growth. Accordingly, this oasis has received
significant attention from the yield hungry global investors.
The mute point is could India and US sustain their outperformance
in a world that is under serious turmoil? If yes, for how long? I will discuss
this in more detail later.
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