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  India rates: Liquidity update (Nomura Securities) Liquidity update: Over the past few months, liquidity in the interbank market has been relatively range bound, largely tracking the normal inter month seasonal patterns. However, overall system liquidity, including the government’s cash balance, has increased because of the larger-than-expected RBI dividend and the liquidity infusion from the INR2,000 note’s withdrawal. As of 26 July, interbank liquidity was approximately INR1.24trn, while overall system liquidity was INR3.6trn on 14 July. As a percentage of NDTL, interbank liquidity is approximately 0.7%, while overall system liquidity is 2%. Despite the increase we have seen MIBOR spike above the MDF rate on various occasions. What has been affecting INR liquidity? Currency in circulation (CIC) has been decreasing since the RBI announced that the INR2,000 note would be withdrawn . Since the announcement, CIC has declined by INR1.36trn up to 14 July. This is in line with ou...

  The statistics for economic growth during 2QFY21; consumption, investment, exports and financial indicators etc. for the month of October were announced last week. The data has been received very enthusiastically. The general commentary is that the growth is “surprising”, and the recovery is much quicker and superior that previously estimated. The “buoyant” data and further encouraging news on vaccine development & launch kept the momentum in the stock market busy yesterday. Since, most of the “surprised” reports are basing their arguments on the “Pre-Covid” and “Consensus Estimate” benchmarks; I find it pertinent to note the data with the usual year on year comparison. 1.    The production in eight core industries has contracted for eight consecutive months. In October 2020, the index of core industries fell by 2.5% compared to October 2020. It is important to note that in the base month October 2019, index had also contracted 5.5%. While coal, fertiliser, cem...

In one of his recent interview, Brian Coulton, the Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, emphasized that the persisting credit squeeze in the Indian economy may hurt the economic growth much more than the present estimates. Brian cautioned that the GDP growth in FY20 could slip to 5.5%, much below the current RBI and government estimates of 6%+ growth. For records, the Indian economy grew at the rate of 5% in the first quarter (April to June 2019) of the current fiscal year, the slowest in more than 6 years. The slowdown was visible in all sectors of the economy including agriculture, manufacturing and services. Within services, the growth in finance, insurance and real estate sectors was cited as particularly worrisome, as it highlighted poor credit conditions. Besides, the credit availability, the high cost of credit is cited as one of the constricted factors. Despite 135bps cut in policy rates in the year 2019, the real rates are found to be still elevated, constraining the gr...