Showing posts with label Union Budget. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Union Budget. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

FM played brave like Pujara; a Pant like execution needed

 “Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.”

—Khalil Gibran (Lebanese Thinker Poet, 1883-1931)

Allaying all fears, the finance minister presented a brave budget. She took all Covid-19 blows on (fiscal) body and refused to yield to fiscal pressures. She prudently refused to indulge in allurements of raising resources through additional taxation. The Budget for FY22 is continuation of various measures announced during 2020 to support the economy. The recognition of the need of new economy (ecommerce workers, startups, e-learning, new education techniques etc.) and willingness to let go the control over even strategic CPSEs are signs of pragmatism. This is perhaps the only budget in independent India that does not propose to make any change in income tax rate structure.

It is now upon the administrative ministries, departments and state governments responsible for executing the proposals. Like Rishabh Pant, who went to Australia with a poor record of recent execution, the performance of these executing organs of the government in recent past has not been encouraging. It is to be hoped that the execution will improve materially in next 15 months and Indian economy shall emerge winner.

The stock market celebrated the budget ebulliently. This is despite the warnings by RBI Governor and CEA (Economic Survey) that stock market appear disconnected from the real economy.

Six core ideas of the budget

1.    Health and Wellbeing of citizens - Preventive healthcare, better sanitization and clean water

2.    Physical & Financial Capital, and Infrastructure – investment in building physical and financial infrastructure.

3.    Inclusive Development for Aspirational India – Recognition of the needs of new economy

4.    Reinvigorating Human Capital – Modern education policy

5.    Innovation and R&D – National Research Foundation to research ecosystem in country

6.    Minimum Government and Maximum Governance – Aggressive disinvestment; administrative reforms; easier and transparent tax administration

Key development proposals

·         Rs 64180cr to develop capacities of primary, secondary, and tertiary care Health Systems, strengthen existing national institutions, and create new institutions, to cater to detection and cure of new and emerging diseases.

·         Universal water supply in all Urban Local Bodies; and liquid waste management in 500 AMRUT cities. (Rs. 2,87,000cr in 5yrs)

·         The Urban Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 (Rs. 1,41,678cr over 5years).

·         Voluntary vehicle scrapping policy Commercial vehicles 15yrs age and personal vehicles 20yrs age would need a fitness test.

·         Rs. 35000 allocated for Covid-19 vaccination. More to be allocated if needed.

·         Mega Investment Textiles Parks (MITRA) Scheme to be announced in addition to PLI.

·         A Development Financial Institution (DFI) with Rs20000cr initial capital to be set up. The institution to have Rs5trn loan book in 3yrs.

·         Proposal to set up National Monetization Pipeline. DFC to be monetized after commissioning in June 2022.

·         Award of 8500kms of road under Bharatmala project in FY22.

·         Private sector may be allowed to own and operate 20000 city busses under PPP mode.

·         Portability to be allowed between power distribution companies. Rs3.05trn for upgrade of power distribution infrastructure.

·         Proposal to launch a Hydrogen Energy Mission in 2021-22 for generating hydrogen from green power sources.

·         Private players to be allowed to manage and operate major Ports.

·         Proposal to consolidate the provisions of SEBI Act, 1992, Depositories Act, 1996, Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 and Government Securities Act, 2007 into a rationalized single Securities Markets Code.

·         Proposal to introduce an investor charter as a right of all financial investors across all financial products.

·         FDI limit in insurance sector increased to 74% from present 49%.

·         Asset Reconstruction Company and Asset Management Company to be set up to consolidate and take over the existing stressed debt and then manage and dispose of the assets to Alternate Investment Funds and other potential investors for eventual value realization.

·         Rs. 20000 cr allocated for recapitalization of public sector banks.

·         The limit of Rs50lac outstanding for action under SARFASI Act reduced to Rs20lac for large NBFCs.

·         Proposal to launch data analytics, artificial intelligence, machine learning driven MCA21 Version 3.0 with modules for e-scrutiny, e-Adjudication, e-Consultation and Compliance Management.

·         Clear roadmap for privatization of CPSE. Proposal to take up the privatization of two Public Sector Banks and one General Insurance company and IPO of LIC in FY22. Rs1.75trn to be raised from disinvestment in FY22.

·         Social security benefits will extend to gig and platform workers. Minimum wages will apply to all categories of workers, and they will all be covered by the ESIC.

·         15,000 schools to be qualitatively strengthened to include all components of the National Education Policy.

·         Higher Education Commission to be set up for standard-setting, accreditation, regulation, and funding of higher education institution.

·         National Research Foundation to be set up to develop research ecosystem in the country. (Rs50000 over 5years)

Direct proposals

Personal taxation

·         No change in tax rates and slabs.

·         Assesses above 75yr of age having only pension and interest income need not file return, if TDS covers their full tax liability.

·         Dividend income to be considered for advance tax only when announced. For FPI, TDS on dividend to be at lower treaty rate.

·         ULIPs Premium over Rs2.5lac in a year to be treated at par with Mutual Fund Investment.

·         Interest on contribution to Provident Funds on contribution exceeding Rs2.5/year to be taxable. (Wef 1-04-2021)

·         The additional deduction of `1.5 lakh shall therefore be available for loans taken up till 31st March 2022, for the purchase of an affordable house.

·         IT Returns to come pre filled with salary, interest, dividend and capital gain of listed securities.

·         Person in whose case TDS/TCS of Rs50,000 or more has been made for the past two years and who has not filed return of income, the rate of TDS/TCS shall be at the double of the specified rate or 5%, whichever is higher.

·         Proposal to increase safe harbor limit from 10% to 20% for the specified primary sale of residential units.

Business taxation

·         Further affordable housing projects can avail a tax holiday for one more year – till 31st March, 2022. Tax exemption to be notified for Affordable Rental Housing Projects.

·         For assesses carrying 95% or more transactions digitally, Tax Audit would be needed only if turnover exceeds, Rs10cr.

·         Eligibility for claiming tax holiday for start-ups extended by one more year - till 31st March, 2022.

·         TDS of 0.1% required on purchase transaction exceeding ` 50 lakh in a year, provided the supplier’s turnover exceeds rs10cr.

·         TDS requirement on dividend paid to Trusts (REITs/InVits) in whose hand dividend is not taxable.

·         Provisions for Equalization Levy on ecommerce players rationalized.

Assessment Procedures

·         Time limit for reopening of assessment reduced to 3yrs from present 6yrs. Re-opening for serious tax evasion to be made more objective and system driven.

·         Dispute Resolution Committee to be set up for small assesses and Settlement Commission to be wound up. ITAT to also go faceless.

·         Time limit for completing assessment reduced to 9months from the end of relevant assessment year.

Budget at a glance

 


Fiscal Trends

 





==============================

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

The best place to watch this Opera

 

As per media reports, the finance ministry officials shall start exercise for preparation of Union Budget for FY22 from 16 October 2020. The exercise usually starts with the finance ministry official and the finance minister meeting with various stakeholders, especially the business representatives; representatives of professional bodies like ICAI; officials from other administrative ministries; officials from state finance ministries; and policy making and statistical bodies etc. The suggestions made in these meetings are then considered in the preparation of final draft the budget documents.

Budget making is normally a very complex exercise that requires special skills to strike an optimum balance between the expectations of various stakeholders. These expectations are invariable at odds with each other. Therefore pleasing most of the stakeholders is almost an impossible task. In past many finance ministers have used some Big Bang announcement to overwhelm the stakeholders so that they are motivated to ignore their parochial interests for a promising bigger picture. The instant reaction of financial markets to all such big bang announcements is usually “ebullient celebration”. The euphoria however subsides in few weeks and markets usually return to their normal trajectory.

The budget making exercise for FY21 would be particularly complex for a myriad of reasons.

Firstly, the government has already announced multiple fiscal and monetary packages during the course of FY2 in the wake of the socio-economic lockdown announced as preventive measure for COVID-19 pandemic. There may not be much scope for giving any further relaxations in the budget; even though the stress in most sectors of the economy is still elevated and almost everyone is looking for a further, stronger dose of stimulus.

Secondly, the shortfall in revenue collection during FY21 is unlikely to be completely made up in FY22. The fiscal balance of the government thus remains precarious. The 2HFY21 borrowing schedule announced by the government is a clear indication that the government (i) does not want any significant deterioration in the head line fiscal deficit number; (ii) may encourage PSUs, Railway and States to raise resources on their own account; (iii) may accelerate the effort to disinvest its stake in PSUs like LIC, BPCL, etc.

This essentially means that both debt and equity markets will remain adequately supplied for most of next 12-15 months. The profile of the sovereign and quasi sovereign debt available in the market will deteriorate significantly with PSU corporate debt and state debt dominating the fresh supply. There could be a paradoxical situation where the benchmark yields are sustained at lower level by the maneuvering by RBI, while the spreads of center-state debt and 10yr-PSU bonds spread rise materially. The situation may worsen further if the business activity picks up sharply, leading to compression of credit-deposit gap, thus leaving banks with lesser resources to absorb the excess supply of sovereign and quasi sovereign paper.

Failure to implement agenda for disinvestment of strategic assets like BPCL, Air India etc, may force the government to dilute holdings in profitable PSUs like Coal India, NTPC, BEL and LIC. This will keep the equity markets well supplied throughout the year, capping any material upside due to liquidity.

Thirdly, the government would be constrained to raise fresh revenue through taxes and additional cess; especially when the dividend from PSUs is likely to dwindle further and elections to key states of UP and West Bengal would require continuous additional social sector spending. This will be the trickiest situation. Obviously, rich would be burdened with additional taxes and stocks markets usually do not like the rich people to be bothered much; and the government would like stock markets to be happy so that it can sell whatever it wants to. It would be interesting to watch how the finance minister manages to get out of this loop. The best place to watch this opera would be from the top gallery which is farthest from the arena. 

Saturday, February 1, 2020

Union Budget FY21 - A caged canary aspiring to fly high



Union Budget FY21 - A caged canary aspiring to fly high
The Finance Minister read out the longest ever budget speech. By the end of it she was too exhausted to even complete the speech. This pretty much explains the state of affairs.
Like a caged canary aspiring to fly in the blue sky, the finance minister very enthusiastically read out the vision for new modern India. However, after two hours of aspirational efforts, it was evidently clear that she does not have enough strength to break the shackles and release herself. In the end, she was settled in the cage, totally exhausted and her wings ruffled.
The positive take away from the budget statement is that the aspirations are really high and the vision of new modern India very clear. The government for the first time made an unambiguous admission that the way forward is a progressive socio-economic structure that is egalitarian but encourages and supports private enterprise. It is a major achievement to officially abandon the socialist legacy that focused on curbing demand rather than enhancing supply and hindered the seamless integration of Indian economy in the global economy.
Positive take away
The following thoughts in budget speech indicate that some significant structural reforms could be implemented in next few years. These reforms with stabilization of the already implemented changes like GST, IBC, simplified corporate tax structure, etc could help in propelling the growth to the desired level:
  • Private participation in LIC, Railways, & Public Sector Banks;
  • Corporate farming through long term leases to improve productivity and profitability of farm sector;
  • A comprehensive vision for Integrated rural development;
  • Healthcare in PPP mode;
  • Admitting commercialization needed in education and training sector, and permitting FDI and ECBs; admission that education in humanities stream is mostly unproductive; and allowing online degree courses;
  • Exploitation of idle farm and railway land for solar energy production;
  • Unleashing power sector to grow like the telecom sector did in past 15years - prepaid metering and portability of service provider;
  • Acknowledging the needs of modern businesses and society - local data storage, investment in modern technologies likes analytics, machine learning, robotics, bio-informatics and Artificial Intelligence, ensuring high quality standards; world class logistics, etc.;
  • Focusing on the strengths of India - iconic heritage centers; preparing teachers and healthcare workers for the global communities; preparing Indian universities for global students;
  • Increasing the age of marriage and motherhood for women
Negative take away
The incongruence between the intent (Part 1) and action (Part 2) is the key negative in the budget. For example consider the following:
  • It seems that the government has decided to come out openly in favor of US, in the global trade war. The changes in duties on consumer items imported mostly from China clearly indicate a political motive, besides an economic one.
  • The tax structure for individual tax payers has been made more complicated, contrary to the promise of simplification. Understanding the new tax regime for individual and HUF tax payers would need help of even more qualified professional then before, contrary to the statement made by finance minister.
  • It's the sixth straight budget that talks about eliminating tax terrorism. The finance ministers admit year after year that tax terrorism is a realty and it is hindering growth. So far there is little delivery on the promise of eliminating this undue harassment of tax payers. Rather each new promise further erodes the credibility of the government.
  • The allocation of resources to the critical sectors like health, education, rural development is not commensurate with the statement of intent made in first part of the budget speech.
  • The reluctance to temporarily suspend FRBM application is perplexing. The resource constraint is too conspicuous. The benefits of additional spending on reforms agenda are all well defined. The benefits of violating FRBM targets, if the reform agenda as outlines in Economic Survey and Budget speech is religiously implemented, would outweigh the cost in the short term.
  • The economy wanted more money in consumers' hand. The method minister has chosen to discourage savings by opting the new personal tax rate structure. This may not be the best way of promoting consumption.
  • The removal of dividend distribution tax shall result in materially higher taxation for the investors. This is contrary to the intent.
Key promise
Through the budget, the finance minister has made two key promises. Delivery on these two must be closely watched
1.         The government shall aim:
  • To achieveseamless delivery of services through Digital governance
  • To improve physical quality of life through National Infrastructure Pipeline
  • Risk mitigation through Disaster Resilience
  • Social security through Pension and Insurance penetration.
2.    The government shall carry out a fundamental overhaul of Centrally Sponsored Schemes and Central Sector Schemes to align them with emerging social and economic needs of tomorrow, and to ensure that scarce public resources are spent optimally.
 
Comprehensive agenda for integrated rural development
1.    Encourage State governments to undertake implementation of following model laws already issued by the Central government:
  • Agricultural Land Leasing Act, 2016
  • Agricultural Produce & Livestock Marketing (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2017
  • Agricultural Produce and Livestock Contract Farming and Services (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2018
2.    Comprehensive measures for one hundred water stressed districts.
3.    Scheme to provide money to 20 lakh farmers for setting up stand-alone solar pumps; help to another 15 lakh farmers solarise their grid-connected pump sets; and a scheme to enable farmers to set up solar power generation capacity on their fallow/barren lands and to sell it to the grid would be operationalized.
4.    Encourage balanced use of all kinds of fertilizers including the traditional organic and other innovative fertilizers to change the prevailing incentive regime, which encourages excessive use of chemical fertilisers.
5.    Creating warehousing, in line with Warehouse Development and Regulatory Authority (WDRA) norms. Provide Viability Gap Funding for setting up such efficient warehouses at the block/taluk level.
6.    Village Storage scheme to be run by the SHGs.  This will provide farmers a good holding capacity and reduce their logistics cost.
7.    Build a seamless national cold supply chain for perishables, inclusive of milk, meat and fish, the Indian Railways tol set up a “Kisan Rail” – through PPP arrangements. Put refrigerated coaches in Express and Freight trains as well.
8.    KrishiUdaan to launched by the Ministry of Civil Aviation on international and national routes for transporting perishable produce to help improve value realisation especially in North-East and tribal districts.
9.    For better marketing and export of horticulture produce, support States that adopt a cluster basis approach with focus on “one product one district”.
10.  Expand integrated farming systems in rainfed areas. Add multi-tier cropping, bee-keeping, solar pumps, solar energy production in non-cropping season will be added. Zero-BudgetNatural Farming (mentioned in July 2019 budget) shall also be included.  The portal on “jaivikkheti” – online national organic products market will also be strengthened.
11.  Financing on Negotiable Warehousing Receipts (e-NWR) to be integrated with e-NAM.
12.  NABARD re-finance scheme to be further expanded for NBFCs and cooperatives. All eligible beneficiaries of PM-KISAN to be covered under the Kissan Credit Card (KCC) scheme.
13.  Eliminate Foot and Mouth disease, brucellosis and PPR by 2025. MNREGS to be dovetailed to develop fodder farms to facilitate doubling of milk processing capacity by 2025.
14.  Framework for development, management and conservation of marine fishery resources.
15.  Raise fish production, promote growing of algae, sea-weed and cage culture to create employment in coastal areas.
16.  Further expand on SHGs.
 
Laying foundation for modern India
1.    Policy to enable private sector to build Data Centre parks throughout the country to enable domestic businesses to skill fully incorporate data in every step of their value chains.
2.    Fibre to the Home (FTTH) connections through Bharatnet to link 100,000 gram panchayats this year.
3.    A digital platform to facilitate seamless application and capture of IPRs. An Institute of Excellence, to established to work on the complexity and innovation in the field of Intellectual Property.
4.    Knowledge Translation Clusters would be set up across different technology sectors including new and emerging areas.
5.    Establish facilities for designing, fabrication and validation of proof of concept, and further scaling up Technology Clusters, harboring such test beds and small scale manufacturing.
6.    Initiate two new national level Science Schemes, to create a comprehensive database to map of India’s genetic landscape considered critical for next generation medicine, agriculture and for bio-diversity management.
7.    To provide early life funding, including a seed fund to support ideation and development of early stage Start-ups.
8.    To establish National Mission on Quantum Technologies and Applications to open up new frontiers in computing, communications, cyber security with wide-spread applications.
Focus on strengths
1     150 higher educational institutions to start apprenticeship embedded degree/diploma courses by March 2021.
2.    “Study in India” programme to get boost with Ind-SAT (qualifying test) to be held in Asian and African countries.
3.    Special training to teachers, nurses, para-medical staff and care-givers for employment abroad.
4.    Centralized Investment Clearance Cell to provide “end to end” facilitation and support, including pre-investment advisory, information related to land banks and facilitate clearances at Centre and State level to new entrepreneurs.
5.    Schemes to harness solar power and maritime resources.
6.    To establish an Indian Institute of Heritage and Conservation under Ministry of Culture.
7.    Five archaeological sites to be developed as iconic sites with on-site Museums.
 
Financial markets
1.    Certain specified categories of Government securities would be opened fully for non-resident investors, apart from being available to domestic investors as well.
2.    The limit for FPI in corporate bonds, currently at 9% of outstanding stock, will be increased to 15% of the outstanding stock of corporate bonds.
3.    To improve investors’ confidence and to expand the scope of credit default swaps, a legislation to be enacted for laying down a mechanism for netting of financial contracts.
4.    Proposal to expand CPSE debt ETF scheme to a new G-Sec Debt-ETF. This will give retail investors access to government securities as much as giving an attractive investment for pension funds and long-term investors.
5.    Partial Credit Guarantee scheme for the NBFCs to be expanded whereby the Government will offer support by guaranteeing securities so floated.
6.    Rs22,0bn provided to Infrastructure Pipeline as equity support to Infrastructure Finance Companies such as IIFCL and a subsidiary of NIIF. They would leverage it, as permissible, to create financing pipeline of more than `1,00,000crore. This would create a major source of long term debt for infrastructure projects and fulfill a long awaited requirement.
7.    GIFT IFSC has an approved Free Trade zone for housing  vaults. It already has 19 insurance entities, 40 banking entities. It has also provided for setting up of precious metals testing laboratories and refining facilities. With the approval of the regulator, GIFT City would set up an International Bullion exchange(s) in GIFT-IFSC as an additional option for trade by global market participants.
8.    Proposal to sell a part of its holding in LIC by way of Initial Public Offer (IPO).
 
Key estimates

 
Tax proposals
Personal income tax
  • No change in rate of taxation for individuals and HUF.
  • Dividend income now taxable as income from other sources at the marginal rate of taxation. If the amount of dividend from one source is higher than Rs5000, the paying entity will deduct at  source (TDS) u/s194 at applicable rate.
(Note: As per the Finance Bill, the capital gain on redemption of Mutual Fund Units is also subject to TDS. However, it does not seem to be the intent of the statute, and may be clarified later)
  • Tax to be collected at source (TCS) in case of remittances by individual under Liberalized Remittance Scheme (LRS) of RBI. TCS will be @5% in case of remitter submitting PAN and Aadhar; otherwise it will be @10%.
  • Tax to be collected at source (TCS) in case of payment to a tour operator for travelling abroad. TCS will be @5% in case of remitter submitting PAN and Aadhar; otherwise it will be @10%.
  • To be categorized a non-resident, an Indian now will be required to stay abroad for 245 days, against 182 previously.
  • A non-resident Indian, who is not taxed in any foreign jurisdiction, will become taxable in India for his entire global income.
  • NRI whose total income consists of only dividend, interest and fee for technical services need not file return provided full TDS has been deducted from such income.
  • Employees of Start Ups may pay tax on perquisite value of ESOP within 14 days of expiry of 48month from vesting, or date of sale of shares by them or the assessee ceasing to be the employee of start up, whichever is earlier.
  • The aggregate exempted contribution to NPS, Pension (superannuation) Fund, and Recognized Provident Fund for an employee restricted to Rs7,50,000 per year. Any contribution above this amount and interest/dividend on such excess shall be taxable as perquisite.
New option tax rate structure for individuals and HUF
The finance bill proposes changes in personal tax structure by introducing an option to choose a "lower tax rate without exemptions" regime. However, the rules proposed for opting the new regime are so complicated that only a handful of individuals might be able to opt for it.
As per the new rules an individual or HUF may opt for the following tax rate structure:

This is subject to the following conditions:
1.    Assessee having business income opting for the new structure shall have to follow the new structure, till the business income continues.
2.    Assessee not having business income may choose between the old and new structure every year before filing the return.
3.    Assessee opting for taxation under the new scheme shall not be entitled to the following exemptions/ deductions:
  • Leave travel concession as contained in clause (5) of section 10;
  • House rent allowance as contained in clause (13A) of section 10;
  • Some of the allowance as contained in clause (14) of section 10;
  • Allowances to MPs/MLAs as contained in clause (17) of section 10;
  • Allowance for income of minor as contained in clause (32) of section 10;
  • Exemption for SEZ unit contained in section 10AA;
  • Standard deduction, deduction for entertainment allowance and employment/ professional tax as contained in section 16;
  • Interest under section 24 in respect of self-occupied or vacant property referred to in sub-section (2) of section 23. (Loss under the head income from house property for rented house shall not be allowed to be set off under any other head and would be allowed to be carried forward as per extant law);
  • Additional deprecation under clause (iia) of sub-section (1) of section 32;
  • Deductions under section 32AD, 33AB, 33ABA;
  • Various deduction for donation for or expenditure on scientific research contained in sub-clause (ii) or sub-clause (iia) or sub-clause (iii) of sub-section (1) or sub-section (2AA) of section 35;
  • Deduction under section 35AD or section 35CCC;
  • Deduction from family pension under clause (iia) of section 57;
  • Any deduction under chapter VIA (like section 80C, 80CCC, 80CCD, 80D, 80DD, 80DDB, 80E, 80EE, 80EEA, 80EEB, 80G, 80GG, 80GGA, 80GGC, 80IA, 80-IAB, 80-IAC, 80-IB, 80-IBA, etc).
However, deduction under sub-section (2) of section 80CCD (employer contribution on account of employee in notified pension scheme) and section 80JJAA (for new employment) can be claimed.
Dividend Distribution Tax
  • Section 115-O providing for dividend distribution tax (DDT) @15% plus applicable surcharge omitted.
  • Dividend to be taxable in the hands of recipients at the marginal rate of taxation.
  • In case of corporate recipients, the dividend received not taxable to the extent it is distributed to the shareholders of the recipient company latest by one month before filing the IT return for the financial year to which the dividend relates.
  • In case the amount of dividend exceeds Rs5000 the paying entity shall deduct TDS @10%.
Other
Exemption to Sovereign wealth fund
Income by way of dividend, LTCG capital gain or interest received by specified soveriegn wealth funds from investments made in infrastructure companies before befoe 31 March 2024 shall be exempt from tax.
Safe harbour limit of 5% under section 43CA, 50C and 56 raised to 10 per cent
No presumptive taxation of gains, in cases the stamp duty value is upto 110% of the sale consideration in case of transfer of land or building or both. Earlier this limit was 105%.
Date of acquisition for side pocketed portfolio of mutual funds
It is clarified that the date of acquisition of the units of segregated (side pocketed) portfolio of a mutual fund shall be the same as the date of acquisition of the original units.

 
Some key budget statistics

 
Tax collection trend
Fiscal improvement paused

 
Reliance on small savings remains high, market borrowing to rise
Sharp rise in non-debt capital receipts (mostly disinvestment)

 
Trends in government expenditure
Trend in sectoral allocations