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Showing posts with the label MSCI

Finding method in chaos

 If we consider the returns given by various global equity indices in the past one year period, the MSCI Czech Republic Index tops the chart with 45% return. MSCI Turkey with ~34% return and MSCI Argentina with ~31% return share the podium with Czechs. In the past five years— ·          The Czech economy has grown at less than 5% CAGR; inflation has averaged ~3%; interest rates have risen from near zero in 2017 to 3.75% presently. Youth unemployment rate has ranged between 5% to 12%. ·          The Turkish economy has also grown at less than 5% CAGR; inflation has ranged between 10% (2016-17) to 36% (present); interest rates are ~16%; and unemployment rate is above 11%. Turkey has witnessed violence, political instability, and Lira collapse. ·          The Argentina economy has hardly grown in the past five years. The inflation rate has ranged between 15% to...

Valuations – Elephant and blind men

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The valuations of Indian equities, or the global equities in general, has become subject of intense debate, with participants analyzing the markets with personal biases and prejudices. A variety of models, methods and timeframes are being used to justify the current valuations as reasonable, or reject these as unsustainably high. Many analysts have preferred to ignore the aggregate valuations and adopted different yardsticks for various classes of businesses. Given that the benchmark Nifty has close to 38% weight of financial services, it may not be appropriate to give undue consideration to the aggregate PE ratio of the index for benchmarking the “market” valuation. Some analysts prefer to use global indices (e.g., MSCI India Index) to assess the valuations of Indian equities. Many new age businesses which are solely focused on revenue growth and may not be profitable in short to mid-term. For these businesses applying the conventional valuation methods might not be appropriate....