Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Future. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Who will teach the next generation?

Every week, a new wave of articles warns us that AI is killing jobs. The argument is always the same: automation replaces human work, and workers lose. It is a tidy story. It may also be the wrong one.

The real problem may be quieter, slower, and more damaging. AI is not destroying jobs. It is destroying the willingness of organizations to grow people. And that distinction matters enormously — for firms, for the economy, and especially for anyone entering the workforce today.

The Jevons Paradox is not the point

Most commentators reach for the Jevons Paradox when discussing AI and jobs. Jevons observed in the nineteenth century that more efficient steam engines led to more coal use, not less — because efficiency unlocked demand. Applied to AI: if AI makes workers more productive, we will want more output, not fewer workers.

That is a reasonable argument in some contexts. But it sidesteps the real question. This is not a story about wanting more output. This is a story about who would pay to grow people — and right now, the answer is: nobody.

The training problem nobody wants to own

Here is the economic reality that most commentators might be missing. Training a junior employee is expensive. It takes senior time, patience, and a long horizon. The company that invests in training a twenty-two-year-old today may collect the benefit in seven years — long after the person who did the training has moved on, and long after the manager who approved the budget has left for another firm.

AI changes this calculus sharply. With AI tools, a small team of experienced people can produce what used to require ten. The temptation to stop hiring and training juniors is not irrational — it is the logical response to short-term incentives. Every individual manager, evaluated on this quarter’s output, makes the same rational choice. Stop building the bench. Use the tools. Ship faster.

The result is a collective action problem. Every firm does what makes sense for them individually, and the system as a whole would stop producing the experienced mid-level talent it will need in a decade.

A few firms will win big — Later

There is an investment angle here worth watching. A small number of firms with genuinely long-time horizons will continue to train juniors, precisely because everyone else has stopped.

In five to seven years, when the hollowing out becomes visible, experienced mid-career professionals will be scarce. You can poach a few senior people. You cannot manufacture an entire generation of capable thirty-year-olds who simply were never trained. The firms that built bench strength quietly during the AI adoption frenzy will collect a meaningful scarcity premium. The firms that cut training entirely will find themselves unable to grow — not because they lack capital or technology, but because they lack people who know how to do things.

This is not speculative. It is a predictable consequence of the incentive structure described above. The only uncertainty is timing.

 So, what should a young person do?

If the market has stopped training you, the question becomes: how do you train yourself? And here, of all places, the Bhagavad Gita offers the clearest answer available.

Chapter 4, verse 34:

तद्विद्धि प्रणिपातेन परिप्रश्नेन सेवया |

उपदेक्ष्यन्ति ते ज्ञानं ज्ञानिनस्तत्वदर्शिन: ||

 

Seek this knowledge through humble surrender, sincere inquiry,

and devoted service — the wise who have seen the truth will teach you.

Shankaracharya, in his commentary on this verse, is precise about what each word means. He is not offering a general sentiment about being a good student. He is describing a method.

The three-part method

Pranipata — prostration. Not the performance of humility, but the actual thing. Approaching someone who knows more than you without the armor of your credentials, your opinions, or your need to appear capable. This is harder than it sounds, especially for people who are technically skilled and used to being the smartest person in the room.

Pariprasna — inquiry. Not asking surface questions to seem curious. Asking the real ones: Why did you make that call? What were you wrong about? What does this look like when it goes badly? These are the questions that extract genuine knowledge rather than polished answers.

Seva — service. Making yourself genuinely useful to the person you are learning from. Not networking. Not managing up. Actually doing work that helps them, so that the relationship is built on something real.

Those three words describe the entire apprenticeship model. And it is precisely this model that is being dismantled by the current AI adoption cycle.

Jnani versus Tattva-Darshi

The sharpest line in Shankara’s commentary is a distinction he draws between two kinds of knowers.

The jnani is the person who is learned, credentialled, fluent, and well-read. In today’s terms: someone who can produce polished output on any topic, speak confidently in meetings, and appear competent across every domain.

The tattva-darshi is different. Shankara says the word means one who has seen the truth. Not read about it. Not synthesized it from other sources. Seen it — through direct experience, through having done the work long enough to understand where it actually breaks.

His point is direct: knowledge imparted by those who have seen the truth takes effect. Knowledge from the merely learned does not, or not in the same way.

This is the whole game now. AI will make everyone look like a jnani. Fluent, articulate, able to produce output on anything within seconds. What AI cannot manufacture is the tattva-darshi: the person who has done the work long enough to know when the confident answer is wrong, to make a sound call on incomplete information, to see the thing beneath the surface that the tool cannot access.

The practical implication

For young people entering the workforce, the advice follows directly from the analysis.

Do not optimize your first job for title or brand name. Optimize it for how fast you get good — which means: how close you are to people who have actually seen the truth in your field.

A well-known firm where you spend three years producing AI-assisted output with minimal senior exposure will leave you fluent and shallow. A less prestigious role where you sit next to someone who has been doing this for twenty years, who makes real decisions and lets you watch — that will make you rare.

Approach those people through pranipata, pariprasna, and seva. Stay low. Ask the real questions. Earn your place by being useful. This is not advice about networking or impression management. It is a description of how knowledge actually transfers between people.

The market is quietly eliminating the apprenticeship. Your job is to find one anyway.

(This piece is mostly based on a post written by a dear friend, who is a great exponent of Shrimad Bhagwat Gita, and regularly delivers talks on Gita.)

 



Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Gorillas in the room

In the past few years I have been disappointed multiple times for not reading adequate and missing on most relevant pieces of information. Being an ordinary mortal, I have not taken the blame for this on myself’. I have rather chosen to blame the deluge of data and information that has been persistently inundating my mindscape.

The flow of data is so overwhelming that discerning the important from the redundant has been a real challenge; especially because important is usually very marginal and underwhelming. The redundant, manipulated and superfluous is forcefully pushed and pursued relentlessly. The lines between the truth and untruth, conscientious and manipulative, data and information, relevant and redundant have been obviously obliterated or should I say brutally violated.

Most of the financial and economic literature I have come across in the past couple of years has focused on analysing the topics like digitalization of economy, modern monetary theory (unsustainability of it and disastrous likely consequences), spectre of hyperinflation, pandemic and its long term economic consequences, geopolitical reset (deglobulisation, ultra nationalism etc.).

The financial and economic literature does not appear to have adequately emphasized on some megatrends that may have far reaching implications for the global economy. I, of course, write this fully acknowledging the limitations of my small knowledge base.

Three of these could be listed as follows:

Rise of new class of feudal czars

The world is now being increasingly dominated by corporate czars. Though, the role of large corporate in policy making was always material; but in earlier days it was mostly limited to the areas of taxation and banking. In recent years these large corporates, especially the digital businesses, have become all pervasive. They blatantly influenced geopolitics, domestic & international politics, fiscal policies, and markets (including household consumption patterns), etc.

The communist China has taken decisive action and curtailed their area of influence. But democratic USA, UK and Europe etc. are meekly surrendering to this new class of feudal lords. The politicians and administrations are happy being subservient to the corporations that have grown much bigger than the entire economy of a large number of countries.

Most of the global population is not only within the sphere of their influence but addicted to their products and services. For example, a one week shutdown of google services could be catastrophic to the world. When was the last time one corporate so important to the world?

This demise of democracy at the altar of corporate feudalism will of course have far reaching implications for the global economy.

Abandoning the basic principles of economics

The principles of classical and neo-classical economics are being violated with impunity; and while doing so no new economic theory is being propounded. It appears that global markets are abandoning the theory of economics per se. Of course, we shall witness chaos in the global markets, till a new framework is put in place, or we decide to revert to the old system.

Some examples of abandoning the basic principles of economics in favour of chaos are as follows:

(i)    The factors of production (man, money, land, machine & technology) are finite and should be used in an optimum manner. The resources should be allocated to the most efficient producer to achieve the economies of scale, optimization of cost and maximization of productivity.

However, diminishing cooperation and growing mistrust between countries is violating this principle. Geopolitics rather than economics is guiding the allocation of scarce resources.

(ii)   Goods or services of economic value must have a price at which it could be exchanged.

But some of the most used services (e.g., Google search) in the world are now free. In some cases, people are even paid to use some of these services (e.g., digital payments). Online trading platforms are selling goods at much lower rates that the cost of procurement. Interest rates have been negative on trillions of worth of bonds for years now.

(iii)  Competition is good for the economy.

Markets for many large products and services are becoming monopolies and oligopolies. Competition is not being allowed to develop.

Distancing of human beings

The trend for the past few decades was shortening of distances. Technology was bringing people closer. However, the past few years have seen the trend reversing suddenly. Technology is increasingly facilitating people to isolate themselves from the outside world. The dictum “Man is a social animal” appears to be becoming completely redundant.

This trend, if it gathers more momentum, shall catalyse reorientation of many things. The businesses, services and administration may now begin to focus more on secluded individuals, rather than families and communities. The concept of cities and villages might need rethinking. The political system which are based on people acting in groups (electoral democracies, participative communism, etc.) may become redundant for lack of participation.

Of course, there is no investment theme in these thoughts. But I feel these are not entirely random or utopian thoughts.

I shall be happy to receive views from the readers.