Some of the most popular video clips shared on social media in India in the recent past were of India’s External Affair Minister, Mr. S. Jaishankar, giving stern replies to the global media about India’s stand on Russia-Ukraine war. In these clips, the minister is seen ‘exposing’, the hypocrisy of European media and politicians in raising questions over India’s purchase of energy from Russia, despite sanctions imposed by US and EU, while the European countries continue to buy natural gas from Russia. Most social media constituents who shared these clips cited the confident and unabashed counteroffensive by the Indian minister as a harbinger of ‘rising India’ and ‘declining west’.
I personally have no disputes with the social media warriors on this issue. It does feel good to see a representative of the Indian government taking a firm stand against the developed nations on global platforms. However, the point I am presently more concerned about is ‘declining west’.
Worsening demography
With a total fertility rate of 1.6, the European Union’s population is on the decline. European Uinon, whose working population (aged 15 to 64) shrank for the first time in 2010 and is expected to decline every year to 2060. In contrast, the proportion of people aged 80 or over in the EU population is expected to more than double by 2050, reaching 11.4 %. In 2006 there were four people of working age (15-64) for each person aged 65 or over – by 2050 this ratio is projected to be just two people. Migration from other Eastern Europe is helping it to compensate for workers’ shortage to some extent, but it is far from adequate. Most European countries are therefore open to relax migration rules for the Asian immigrants. India’s demographic dividend may, to some extent, come from migration of young workers.
Climate change – Mother Nature showing no benevolence
Historians cite numerous reasons for the decline of the once Great Roman empire. Climate change and disease are also listed as prominent reasons from the Empire, once considered invincible (for example read here). European economy and strategic powers have been diminishing slowly in the post cold war era. The recent climatic disasters are threatening to acclerate this decline further.
As per a latest report by European Union Joint Research Center’s Global Drought Observatory (GDO) Analytical Report titled Drought in Europe – July 2022 – Europe Europe is experiencing its worst drought in at least 500 years. Hot and dry conditions are fueling wildfires and adversely impacting crop yields and electricity generation. About half part of the European continent is facing an alarming situation with a clear deficit of soil moisture. The summer temperature has risen to record levels disrupting transportation, displacing people and causing numerous deaths. Deficient rainfall has affected river flows across Europe – hitting the energy sector for hydropower generation and cooling systems of other power plants.
This climate catastrophe came soon after the Covid-19 pandemic severely crippled many European economies, besides causing numerous deaths and health complications.
Europe has already lost its technology leadership to the US and China. If the agriculture and energy dynamics change materially in the next one decade, the spectre of “the fall of Rome” might return to haunt Europe again. It is however too early to assess how this would affect the rising Asian societies.
