Showing posts with label Jaishankar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jaishankar. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Some random thoughts

Ppt slides about accomplished PIOs

It is very common to receive the lists (or graphics) depicting very successful persons of Indian origin (PIOs) on our social media timelines; email inboxes and even front pages of newspapers. Some of these lists contain names of people who are not necessarily of Indian origin, but whose names resemble Indian names like Tulsi. In some cases we do not even mind turning matriarchal, if the successful person has only a mother of Indian origin, e.g., Kamala Harris.

Recently, two such persons are prominently in the news – Rishi Sunak, who lost the race to the 10 Downing Street last month, and Suella Braveman, the newly appointed Home Secretary in Liz Truss cabinet. Both British politicians happen to be born to parents of Indian origin who migrated from India many decades ago. Both were born and brought up in the UK; own a passport issued in the name of the British Monarch; have never publicly shown any allegiance to India. Suella Braveman recently lamented that Indians form the largest group of VISA violators in the UK.

Many of the top global corporations, like Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Twitter, IBM, Cognizant, Nokia, Bata, Chanel, Starbucks, Micron etc. now have CEOs who were born and graduated from India. Many of them pursued higher studies abroad and worked there for many years before reaching the top. They all are global citizens, do not necessarily carry an Indian passport and have shown no specific commitment to development and growth of India.

I fear that most of these names may be under pressure to prove their allegiance to the country, whose name appears on the front page of their passports; or the companies which write their paychecks; even if it means taking decisions that are prejudicial to the Indian economy. They may hold tremendous respect for their motherland, alma mater, religion and culture. But the economy of India and welfare of a common Indian may not appear high in their list of priorities. In fact, people who are not of Indian origin may do much more for India than PIOs.

In fact, the more PIOs reach the pole positions in global corporations and politics, more worried we should be. Because, it not only strengthens the global lobby of influential people who may not like to be openly seen as biased towards India; it also reflects poorly on the weaknesses of our entrepreneurial ecosystem that is unable to retain top talent.

Having understood this, I shall now avoid investing in mutual funds and companies whose periodic presentations show the list of accomplished PIOs as a strength of the Indian economy and markets.

Running foreign policy from press conferences

Recently, one of the most celebrated video clips on social media in India has been the one where the external affair minister (EAM) of India is answering the questions of western media about India’s policy with regard to the Russia-Ukraine war, especially India’s decision to buy crude oil from Russia despite NATO sanctions. The stern and articulate response of the EAM won him millions of accolades. Many did not hesitate in terming him the most competent minister of PM Modi’s cabinet; a symbol of rising global power of India; and a worthy successor to PM Modi (whenever he decides to retire). Even some foreign experts have termed him one of the best diplomats in the world.

Inarguably, incumbent EAM is very articulate, confident and clear in his views. He also seems to have a clear mandate from the prime minister in the matters of foreign policy. But in recent times, there have been more failures than successes in foreign policy.

NATO countries have tacitly imposed travel sanctions (inordinate delays in VISA issuance) against India for supporting Russia. Businesses and students are suffering from long delays in VISA issuance. China is cementing its position in Ladakh. The US is giving arms and money to Pakistan. We have not been able to get Pakistan black listed by FATF. There is little progress on key issues like membership of UNSC and NSG. There is little improvement in relationships with other neighbors. The UK home secretary has spoken openly against India and the trade deal has been delayed. The Canadian government is seen openly supporting anti India (Khalistan) elements. Despite claims of 30-35% cheaper oil from Russia, the price of our basket of oil is not much different from the benchmark Brent Crude. Belt Road and CPEC are progressing steadily.

I would rather prefer that no one knows about our EAM or see him on TV. Let him be an anonymous person and work behind curtains and show results. The job of making fun of western media and giving blunt responses to western diplomats is best left to the innocuous full timers like Tharoors and Swamis.


Thursday, August 25, 2022

Rome did not fall in a day

 Some of the most popular video clips shared on social media in India in the recent past were of India’s External Affair Minister, Mr. S. Jaishankar, giving stern replies to the global media about India’s stand on Russia-Ukraine war. In these clips, the minister is seen ‘exposing’, the hypocrisy of European media and politicians in raising questions over India’s purchase of energy from Russia, despite sanctions imposed by US and EU, while the European countries continue to buy natural gas from Russia. Most social media constituents who shared these clips cited the confident and unabashed counteroffensive by the Indian minister as a harbinger of ‘rising India’ and ‘declining west’.

I personally have no disputes with the social media warriors on this issue. It does feel good to see a representative of the Indian government taking a firm stand against the developed nations on global platforms. However, the point I am presently more concerned about is ‘declining west’.

Worsening demography

With a total fertility rate of 1.6, the European Union’s population is on the decline. European Uinon, whose working population (aged 15 to 64) shrank for the first time in 2010 and is expected to decline every year to 2060. In contrast, the proportion of people aged 80 or over in the EU population is expected to more than double by 2050, reaching 11.4 %. In 2006 there were four people of working age (15-64) for each person aged 65 or over – by 2050 this ratio is projected to be just two people. Migration from other Eastern Europe is helping it to compensate for workers’ shortage to some extent, but it is far from adequate. Most European countries are therefore open to relax migration rules for the Asian immigrants. India’s demographic dividend may, to some extent, come from migration of young workers.

Climate change – Mother Nature showing no benevolence

Historians cite numerous reasons for the decline of the once Great Roman empire. Climate change and disease are also listed as prominent reasons from the Empire, once considered invincible (for example read here). European economy and strategic powers have been diminishing slowly in the post cold war era. The recent climatic disasters are threatening to acclerate this decline further.

As per a latest report by European Union Joint Research Center’s Global Drought Observatory (GDO) Analytical Report titled Drought in Europe – July 2022 – Europe Europe is experiencing its worst drought in at least 500 years. Hot and dry conditions are fueling wildfires and adversely impacting crop yields and electricity generation. About half part of the European continent is facing an alarming situation with a clear deficit of soil moisture. The summer temperature has risen to record levels disrupting transportation, displacing people and causing numerous deaths. Deficient rainfall has affected river flows across Europe – hitting the energy sector for hydropower generation and cooling systems of other power plants.

This climate catastrophe came soon after the Covid-19 pandemic severely crippled many European economies, besides causing numerous deaths and health complications.

Europe has already lost its technology leadership to the US and China. If the agriculture and energy dynamics change materially in the next one decade, the spectre of “the fall of Rome” might return to haunt Europe again. It is however too early to assess how this would  affect the rising Asian societies.