Do it yourself

 Last weekend I did my annual festival market check. This year, besides the main markets of Delhi, I visited some local markets in predominately lower middle class areas; and some markets in rural areas of North Delhi. I managed to speak with some very large importer and traders of consumer goods; auto dealers, farmers, real estate developers and owners of leased properties. Based on my observations, interactions and information, I would like to share the following feedback with readers: ·          The overall demand situation this festival season is materially worse than the last year. It is pertinent to note that the last year was also not good per se. ·          A large importer and trader dry fruits, mainly almonds and walnuts, indicated that global dry fruit prices are down over 25-30% as compared to last year. In India despite supply disruptions due to broken logistic chain, the prices are low...

The financial sector has massively underperformed the broader markets in past three months. A number of experts have called for increasing exposure to this sector in view of this underperformance. They have argued that valuations are now discounting the worst in terms of COVID-19 related delinquencies and the economic activity shall normalize in next 2-3 quarters. The consensus amongst experts is veering towards outperformance of the sector in next 12-15 months. It appears that many non institutional investors are in agreement with the experts' opinion and have increased their exposure to the banks and NBFCs, especially the low priced ones. I would like these investors take note of the following data points while increasing their exposure to the financial sector in India. (a)    The capacity utilization of Indian enterprises peaked at 83% in 2011 and has ranged between 70-75% since then. It declined to below 70% in 2QFY20, much before the COVID-19 induced lock...