On 29th June 2022, Reuters reported a trade deal that could have material and far reaching implications for India’s external trade in particular and the global trade in general as well. As per the agency, it has accessed documents from the Indian Custom department showing that Ultratech, the largest cement manufacturer in India, has imported 1,57,000 tonnes of coal, worth USD25.81million (appx INR2000cr), from Russia. The consignment is invoiced in Chinese currency Yuan (CNY), implying that the payment will be made in CNY, without using the global payment network like SWIFT. The agency also reported that other companies have also placed orders for Russian coal using CNY payments. (see here)
This could be the first instance of an Indian
company using CNY to make international payments. Apparently, this time the
transaction could be to circumvent the international sanctions on Russia. Ultratech
would be using USD to buy CNY in China or Hong Kong to pay the Russian coal
producer SUEK. But the success of this transaction may encourage companies to
explore INR-CNY and INR-JPY routes of payment in future. It is pertinent to
note that Russia and China are successfully conducting CNY-RUB trade for many
years.
In the fiscal year FY22, India had a trade
deficit of USD79.55bn with China (including Hong Kong) and a trade surplus of
USD32.8bn with the US. These two countries are India’s largest trade partners,
accounting for 26% of India’s total foreign trade. Notwithstanding the
persistence of geopolitical conflict and political rhetoric, China’s (including
Hong Kong) share in our foreign trade has risen to 14.4% in FY22. China
accounted for 18% of India’s total imports in FY22, against 7.6% for the USA. An
INR-CNY payment system in bilateral trade could be extremely beneficial for
India, as it may help in bridging the trade deficit with China by making our
exports to China more competitive.
Besides, India runs a trade deficit of USD28bn
(FY22) with Saudi Arabia, mostly on account of oil imports. Saudi Arabia in
turn runs a trade deficit of similar magnitude with China. Successful INR-CNY
trade with China and Russia could open doors for non USD settlements with other
trade partners also. This could potentially reduce dependence on USD for
payment settlement.
It may be argued,
CNY could not be as reliable a currency as USD, given the reputation of the Chinese
political system and authoritative government. The US has always accused China
of manipulating its currency. However, so far not much irrefutable evidence is
available to conclude that PoBC has unduly manipulated CNY or exploited its
trade partners. On the other hand if we compare the strength in USD considering
the amount of USD printed by the US Fed in the past one decade, reasonable
doubts emerge over sustainability of USD’s present strength.
The Indian Express
highlighted in its 17th March editorial (see here), “The weaponization of trade, the imposition of
sanctions and the exclusion from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank
Financial Telecommunication) by the US could trigger a faster de-dollarisation as
countries displaying diplomatic and economic autonomy will be wary of using
US-dominated global banking systems.
The
US dollar, which is the world’s reserve currency, can see a steady fall in the
current context as leading central banks may look to diversify their reserves
away from it to other assets or currencies like the Euro, Renminbi or gold.
The
notion of de-dollarisation sits well in the thought experiment of a multipolar
world where each country will look to enjoy economic autonomy in the sphere of
monetary policy.”
V. Ganpathy, a global expert in international
trade and technology transfer, also opined (see
here) that “India operates a huge trade deficit in excess of $150billion.
One of the best way to counter this trade deficit is by introducing Rupee trade
for major imports.” Ganpathy believes that the benefits of Rupee trade
substantially outweigh losses. He believes, “An aggressive international trade
lobbying is required to actively promote Rupee trade with dominant economies.” If
India wants to become a global trade player, “the local currency should be the
preferred trading instrument.”
The Ultratech deal could just be a small
beginning for a major change in India’s foreign trade paradigm.
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