Friday, September 14, 2018

Long way to state of equilibrium

Some food for thought

When an idea exclusively occupies the mind, it is transformed into an actual physical or mental state.

—Swami Vivekanand (Indian preacher, 1863-1902)

Word for the day

Exoteric (adj)

Popular; simple; commonplace.


First random thought this morning
I truly believe that the role of language goes much further than mere communication. Language we use for communication, defines our personality, thought process, and confidence level. The language gives wings to our imagination. If we use a language, we are not comfortable communicating in, our personality might diminish, thought process may be frequently interrupted, confidence may get shaken, and imagination curtailed.
Choosing the language for education, working, thinking and communicating is no less important than the knowledge, thought, skill, processes and the methods themselves, in my view.
The first President of independent India, Dr. Rajendra Prasad, who was also a key member of the Constituent Assembly, which was given the responsibility to draft the Constitution of India, famously said, "A country that does not take pride in its language and literature can never progress". Strongly emphasizing on the universality of Hindi language he reminded the nation that "Hindi has always been such a language that it never boycotted any word just because it's of foreign origin".
Hindi, in that sense, truly reflects the quintessential Indianness - Openness, adaptability, progressiveness, tolerance, modesty, simplicity and brilliance. Inherent ability to adapt to the continuously evolving socio-economic & cultural conditions, and embrace all the foreign developments with brilliant ease, makes it one of the most dynamic languages in the world.
Despite having the constitutional status of India's national language, Hindi has not been accorded the prestige, it deserves. As a resident of Metro city, I can vouch that it is not uncommon to find instances where Hindi Speaking people are subjected to derision and face discrimination. To the contrary, English speaking people are held in high esteem in most of hinterlands.
I fully accept that in India it is totally undesirable to impose Hindi, or any other language, on people whose mother tongue is entirely different, like Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, Malayalam, etc. But by making it a political contention, our leaders have ensured that North Indians and South Indians would never love to learn each others' languages and hence be devoid of extremely rich literature, culture and knowledge base of each other. The apathy to each others' language has reached a level, where most non-community affiliated private schools in North India offer French, German, Mandarin etc. as an elective, but few no offers Indian languages as elective. I guess the same is true for the schools in other parts of the country also.
In my opinion, the general lack ingenuity in modern Indian may be stemming from the limitation of not thinking in our own language. A causality could also be find in comparative degeneration in contemporary literature and other art forms.
Fortunately, a silver lining is that in recent times a wider awareness about the issue is developing. The youth is breaking the stereotypes. They are ignoring the commands of so called language purists, and devising a new form of language that is primarily based on their respective mother tongues and borrows from other languages. The expression thus created is free, innovative and attractive.
Many congratulations to all on the occasion of Hindi Divas!

Notes from my Diary
In recent years, the financial literacy has in India has shown marked improvement. One collateral of this phenomenon is evident in greater finalization of the household savings. Diminishing incremental demand growth for gold could be seen as another indication.
Regardless, it is common to see many regular market participants in the equity markets driven by superstitions and magical charms. Incidentally, many of these superstitions do actually work. This is especially true in cases where the superstitions are formed on the basis of some empirical evidence or experience.
One such superstition that prevails in the market is that when many fund houses and asset managers start floating schemes specific to one particular sector, that sector is doomed to underperform the market for next few years at least. In other words, the top of a sector outperformance is believed to be formed when it becomes the most popular theme.
For example, in 2007-2008, the most popular themes amongst fund managers were infrastructure and natural resources. Both sectors underperformed the benchmark indices in next 10years.
In past one year or so, there have been many new fund offers (NFOs) and PMS schemes launched based on "consumption" and "emerging business" (basically mid and small cap companies) themes. PSU ETF has also been a popular theme.
These themes have underperformed the benchmark indices significantly, particularly after the previous Nifty bottom formed in March 2018.

 
Many people ask me whether they should be buying into these underperformance.
I do not have a definite answer for all these queries. But what I would like to highlight to the inquisitors is the performance of various sectors since the post DeMo Nifty bottom recorded in November 2016.
This can give them a broad idea about how much the pendulum can swing to the other extreme.
IT and Consumption are two sectors that are distinct outperformers since November 2018 bottom. While Pharma is still in negative zone.
The sectors that have started to underperform in past 5months, might have a long way to go, before they attain a state of equilibrium, in my view.

 
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