Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Beyond macro data


"The lie is a condition of life."
—Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900)
Word for the day
Verisimilar (adj)
Having the appearance of truth; likely; probable, e.g., a verisimilar tale.
Malice towards none
BJP lost in Bawana bypoll in Delhi.
Narendra Modi should resign, as he has lost mandate of people.
#AAPSpokesperson
First random thought this morning
As per NSSO survey on housing conditions, the majority of India's population, both rural and urban, may be living in homes with space smaller than the minimum floor area per person recommended for prison cells. Juxtapose this finding to other popular data points, viz., a large number of people still do not have access to toilet, primary health, and poor work conditions and may be living on Rs32/day income.
What you may get that is that Jail, for many of the poor in India might not be an unfamiliar or totally unwanted territory. #RightToLiberty

Beyond macro data

A close study of the investment strategies followed by most successful fund managers shows that almost all of them have kept their life simple by not patronizing Bollywood masala films.
Though some occasionally successful, and not so reputable, fund manager do claim to have consistently discovered new gems (multibaggers in common market parlance) and made exponential returns for investors, very little data is available to verify their claims.
The question that is bothering my mind since past few months is why do we in India need the equity research as so highly ranked and paid profession!
The genesis of this question is the disconnect I am witnessing in the analysts projection of India growth story and the picture I am seeing while travelling through the hinterlands of the country.
Most of the equity research and strategy published in past six months broadly appears optimistic on Indian equities over next couple of years. But unfortunately, I do not see their optimism being shared by a vast majority of the populace.
Wherever I go there is an environment of despondency. Farmers, students, laborers, traders, manufacturers, industrialist, bankers, workers (including government workers), teachers, man, women, youth, old, rich poor - all appear complaining, unhappy about whatever they doing presently, and uncertain about their future.
I grant that some of this despondency may be emanating from the disruption due to regulatory changes having long term positive implications and therefore be very subjective and unsustainable. Some of this could also be attributed to the negative campaign of the dispirited opposition parties and section of media sympathetic to them.
However, that still does not take away my doubts. For once, I see the society divided and disillusioned like never before. The narrative is overwhelmingly "we vs. they". Everyone (class, caste, religion, region) appears to be at conflict with others.
Everyone is non-compliant and must be punished seems to have become the guiding principle of the administration, at all levels.
Lack of direction, poor motivation and incompetence of the machinery responsible for executing the Prime Ministers' grand vision of New India is conspicuous and alarming.
This situation does not augur well for the sustainable economic growth of India, at least in next couple of years. Though markets may do whatever they have to.

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