Wednesday, May 6, 2015

It's not just about politics or Congress

Thought for the day

"There are basically two types of people. People who accomplish things, and people who claim to have accomplished things. The first group is less crowded."

-          Mark Twain (American, 1835-1910)

Word for the day

Diurnal (adj)

Of or belonging to the daytime.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

Is there anything called "Indian" culture?

 

It's not just about politics or Congress
Many people have raised objection to the comparison of Rahul Gandhi with Amitabh Bachchan in my yesterday's post. Some feel that it unreasonably reflects on the Gandhi scion while the other feel that he is no comparison to Mr. Bachchan.
I refuse to get drawn into this controversy. My objective was just to draw, which in my view was, an easily comprehendible analogy to highlight the current state of the Congress Party and its leaders. I had no intention to compare two individuals.
One comment in particular needs clarification. My dear friend and a reputable equity analyst chided me  - "Which hit did Rahul deliver before this slump hit him?"
To this I may clarify that my point needs to be understood in the right perspective. I stated that presently the Indian politics is totally personality driven. The parties have been relegated to somewhere backstage. Thus it is popular to invoke Rahul Gandhi's name while referring to the Congress Party. It again has nothing to do with any individual per se.
I would also like to highlight that understanding the current political paradigm and the likely directions it could move is critical for investment strategy.
A continuation of the current state of quandary with respect to economic growth model could potentially push Indian economy down permanently into the realm of so called Hindu Rate of growth (~5% in new context), I fear.
I strongly believe that the inherent austerity, industriousness and enterprising skills of the Indian populace are sufficient to attract capital needed to provide escape velocity for moving the Indian economy into higher orbit.
It is fashionable and correct to say that whatever growth and development has been achieved so far is in spite of the government and not because of it.
Limiting the role of government to developing and maintaining the institutional framework relating to law & order, sovereignty, external security & relations, municipal functions, inter-state relations and facilitating trade & commerce, may improve economic conditions much faster than otherwise.
From Congress (I) to INC
Coming to the Congress Party now.
In my view, the dissipation of Congress Party started in 1975 with the imposition of national emergency. The process of decay accelerated a bit in 1984 as some Shatraps started to question the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi. Rajiv Gandhi's assassination added some more decibel to dissenting voices. Anointment of Sonia Gandhi as party chief ruffled many more feathers. Though the electoral victories of 1980, 1984, 1991, 2004 and 2008, which were mostly outcome of poor opposition and not necessarily due to strong positioning of the Congress Party itself, helped maintaining the facade of unity and supremacy of the family.
After a series of electoral debacle since 2012, and near decimation in 2014 general elections, the facade is slowly coming off.
From media reports, the Congress Party may appear to be in revival mode, but truth may be far from it. The true state of affairs is that the party barely exists in most populated states like UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Jharkhand. It has been out of Power for more than a decade in states like Gujarat, MP, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.
Greater media coverage for Rahul Gandhi may change nothing in this state of affair. Raising issues like Land Acquisition & home buyers' plight and blocking important legislative business in parliament with add little precious to the dwindling fortunes of the party.
These tactics do not solve any of the five major problems afflicting the party; which could be summarized as follows:
(a)       Consistent erosion in traditional support base
            Congress party has failed in recognizing that the younger party joins politics as profession and not as a selfless service to the nation. They prefer to join parties or organizations which provide an opportunity to fulfill their aspiration to reach at the top.
            Congress party offers no such prospects - (i) The positions at the top are dedicated to the chosen few; (ii) The party is not in a winning position in majority of constituencies; (iii) The brand Congress no longer evoke respect and dedication; (iv) In many regional alliances the Party has accepted to be minor partner.
            So unless the Congress party presents a political paradigm that appeals to the aspiration of youth, it may not add to its support base on sustainable basis.
(b)       Legacy of 6 decades of sub-optimal performance
            Sub-optimal performance of successive Congress governments since independence takes away from the Congress Party any moral right to criticize failure of any other government.
            The Congress Party needs to present an economic paradigm that shows the potential for higher, faster and sustainable economic growth.
(c)        Uninspiring leadership
            The leadership need to inspire the youth, ethnic groups, community leaders, business community and global Indians through its actions and programs.
(d)       Feudal arrogance.
            The language normally used by the party in its public discourse smacks of feudal arrogance. "We gave you this and that" is no longer acceptable to the people born after economic liberalization in 1991.
            The language of the public discourse of the party needs to change to reflect a cooperative and collaborative approach towards politics.
(e)        Cultural alienation of the party
            In its desperation to achieve short term goals of winning elections, the Congress Party has positioned itself as a group of atheist who stand distant from the religion, traditions and culture of dominant ethnic groups.
            This needs to change. The Party needs to understand that regardless of technology, urbanization and economic progress, we are a society where people walking hundreds of miles barefoot carrying Kanwars in the month Shravan; people carrying the Palki of Sai Baba; people visiting Tirupati Bala ji, Amarnath, Vaishno Devi, Guruvayyur, Char Dham etc.; households hosting Ganpati and Durga Maa, and number of Tazias in various Muharram processions is rising exponentially every year.
            The Party failed to recognize that even communists in West Bengal participated in Durga Puja with same zest as non-communists to stay in touch with people.
I have highlighted in past (see Mandate 2014: Definitely Transformative) that In Indian context, Indian National Congress, as it existed before independence is the only viable alternative to the right wing politics.
In case the present Congress Party fails to broadbase itself to regain the prominence it enjoyed in pre-independence period, the motley group of degenerated socialists will continue to occupy that space and this is not a good news for the economy of the country.
I have also mentioned that raking up issues like Land Acquisition will not help Congress Party in any manner whatsoever - for (a) Congress' apathy is mostly responsible for the plight of the farmers and (b) "No land" is much bigger problem than the land. (see "Land" does not get you votes, "No Land" does and Part II).
 
 

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