Thought for the day
"Public opinion is the thermometer a monarch should
constantly consult."
-
Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821)
Word for the day
Happenstance (n)
A chance happening or event.
(Source:
Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
J&K beats Mumbai in cricket!
May Sensex tread its own random path
The recent CII "in-camera" meeting has evoked
considerable interest in media and market circles. The selective leaks and
euphemistic explanations somehow reminded me of the Hans Christian Andersen's
story "The Emperor's New Clothes".
From what appeared in media, it looks that the Indian
industrialists are already skeptical of the capabilities of the new government.
Many in industry are apparently beginning to believe that the Modi led
government is not doing enough or doing things the wrong way, but no one has
the courage to speak up openly.
The cynicism, in my view, is flowing from the fact that at once
everyone believed that the PM Modi will be able to implement his Laissez-faire
or free market theory based economic model almost immediately at the national
level. Regardless of the fact that he could implement the model in Gujarat only
with limited success. Even though, unlike many other states, Gujarat has a
history of 200years of industrialization and 60mn people who are globally
recognized for their enterprising skills.
To give some concession, many captains of industry have
advocated grant of reasonable time for bringing effective changes in
traditional Nehruvian socialist model to the desired Laissez-faire.
But the zest with which they seek "reforms" almost
immediately dissipates when you mention the words "Nira Radia",
"Coal Gate", "2-G Spectrum" in front of them.
In my view, considering the present state of socio-economic
development of various parts of the country, it is 10-15years too early to test
the Laissez-faire model at the pan-India level. Hence, presently, Modi’s
Gujarat model may not be of much relevance at the national level.
But at the same time I do not see the Gujarat model as PM Modi's
limitation also. PM Modi has very successfully demonstrated his strategy skills
in past one decade. It would be totally wrong to assume that he would not be
able to adapt to the larger responsibility and formulate an appropriate
strategy for integrated development of the country.
However, the proposal like dismantling the Planning Commission
without having a concrete idea and or without putting in place a conceptual
framework for the alternative mechanism will only erode his credibility.
The daily patterns emerging at Sensex technical chart do not
worry me. 30K, 20K, 50K or 100k are just numbers which may temporarily concern
a miniscule proportion of population.
What worries me is affording too much importance to this number.
Anecdotally, I know that too much focus on stock market has only brought many
distortions in the policy.
I believe that the new government is merely a reflection of the
people's desire for change - change in the way this country and economy has been run so far. The change will
take place at the speed and in the direction the people at large are comfortable
with. May the Sensex chart tread its own random path.
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