Thought for the day
”It's easier to resist at the beginning than at the end."
-
Leonardo da Vinci (Italian, 1452-1519)
Word for the day
Ken (v)
Knowledge, understanding, or cognizance; mental perception
(Source:
Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
QE3 completely tapered.
Equity markets are at all time high.
US and European Bonds are also close to their peak.
No crash.
No great rotation.
No hyper-inflation.
What'd be the next "big theme"?
Case against "Make in India" - III
The apparent motive behind "Make in India" mission is
to alleviate poverty through creation of large number of employment
opportunities. This objective, the protagonists claim, will be achieved by
acceleration in economic growth through higher industrialization.
I am not sure if there is much evidence to substantiate this
optimism. To the contrary, there is some evidence to the effect that during
high growth phases in past couple of decades the employment opportunities in
industrial sector have remained mostly stagnant. Most employment growth has occurred
in services sector, notably construction.
From my experience I know that telecom sector has been the
largest incremental employment provider in past one decade. The employment
opportunities in traditional high employment provider like textile and government
sector have actually contracted.
My friends from Congress party would love me for saying this,
but truth of the matter is that poverty level has come down due to the
government efforts. Unsustainable and profligate social sector spending in past
decade has prevented hunger deaths. But that is all. On the other hand,
industrial growth has in fact added to economic and to some extent regional
inequalities.
The popular illustration cited by the Prime Minister is that if
more tourist come to India, tea vendor will get more business. He needs to
think, whether we want more tea vendors chasing tourists and more construction
labor constructing large factories and massive physical infrastructure for
foreigners without acquiring any meaningful skill that would keep them employed
post construction period or we want more research scientists, better equipped
farmers and entrepreneurs.
I feel one Noble prize in Mathematics, physics, or chemistry can
achieve what a thousand Olympic gold medals or Cricket world cups would not.
Similarly, 10% higher crop yield and 10% less wastage of agri produce can bring
more prosperity to India than 100 smart cities or 100 Industrial zones. Potable
water to every home will alleviate poverty much faster than 3000 airports.
Anyone who has travelled beyond large cities in China would
confirm that even after 25years of relentless pursuit of industrialization,
notwithstanding the impressive aggregate economic data and gigantic
infrastructure, there is abundant distress and discontent in the country. It
may be another couple of decades when China comes close to developed nations on
"better life "parameters. Even if it does, that is.
India does not have that much time. PM Modi has even less.
Moreover, "India" is not "China" and "Indians"
are not "Chinese" at all.
In my view, the focus of government should be on "better
life" for all Indians rather than the banalities like 8% GDP growth,
Indian companies in Fortune500 club, number of Indian billionaires, etc.
I sincerely believe that India should follow Gandhi more than
Nehru, Mao, or Deng for that matter...to continue next week
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