Thought for the day
“To insult someone we call him 'bestial. For deliberate cruelty
and nature, 'human' might be the greater insult.”
— Isaac Asimov (American, 1920-1992
Word for the day
Bestial (adj)
Without reason or intelligence; brutal; inhuman.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
What’s this talk about first personality driven election in
India.
Besides 2009, which was not a personality driven election?
Reconnecting with “the India story”
In India, post independence, major business cycles, and
therefore market cycles, have been quintessentially led by important
socio-political transitions. The present landscape of the country suggests that
another socio-political transition is underway that could potentially lead to
an economic transition in next few years.
In my view, the India story is primarily about ‘demographics’
and ‘sociopolitical transformation’. The economic growth is just a by-product.
I strongly believe that the disenchantment with “The India
story” seen in past few years is primarily the consequence of omitting the socio-political
transformation factor from the financial and economic analysis. Unfortunately,
the “re-connect” of global investors that we are witnessing in the hope of a
decisive leadership emerging post election also suffers from this oversight.
I am also convinced that the transition we that we may witness
post 2014 elections will lead India’s metamorphosis into a more participative
and globally competitive economy with a sustainable growth trajectory. A more
transparent, accountable, inclusive and objective governance structure should
change the socio-economic context, leading to significant changes in the
business and market landscape.
In my view, the transition will largely be visible through
emergence of strong federal governance structure leading to diminishing
regional imbalances and abridged rural-urban divide (urbanization).
The burgeoning local aspirations; elimination of administrative
discretions and consequentially undue arbitrary political patronage to
businesses; better delivery mechanism through higher transparency and
e-governance; larger and broader consumer base with better affordability and
changes in global socio-economic order would largely catalyze the transition.
However, it is critical to understand that the transition to a
more transparent, accountable, participative, globally competitive and
sustainable growth environment could be painful in the short to medium term –
for businesses and investors alike. Businesses, especially which do not have
viable scale in a globally competitive scenario, or businessmen who are not
competent enough to grow without administrative privileges or political
patronage, shall stand to face extinction.
One big opportunity lies in identifying such businesses which
have good quality unencumbered assets but would not be viable in the emerging
globally competitive scenario. These businesses, in my view, should not be
valued on a going concern basis. Many of these businesses would have invaluable
resources (surplus land, access to water, rights to exploit natural resources
for raw material purposes etc.) and rights like environmental clearance,
technology licenses or market access.
The biggest opportunity however lies in the businesses that have
attained global scales and adequately demonstrated the ability to grow in a
globally competitive environment.
No comments:
Post a Comment