Thought for the day
“Every positive value has its price in negative terms...
the genius of Einstein leads to Hiroshima.”
-
Pablo Picasso (Spanish, 1881-1973)
Word for the day
Idem (pronoun)
The same as previously given or mentioned.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Degeneration of a movement:
2012: Our struggle is only to make the life of
common man better.
2013: Only AAP can make common man’s life better.
2014: Whatever AAP does is the only thing that is
good for common man.
Modi
in a Chakravyuh
From business confidence and financial market view point a
large majority of participants feel that Narendra Modi’s elevation to PM office
would be a good thing. Even rating agencies like Moody & S&P and many
global research firms have also echoed similar sentiments. Besides, many have
also expressed concerns that the continuation of current regime could be
detrimental to the interests of Indian businesses and markets.
In my view, there is little substantive evidence in support
of this thesis. Nevertheless, inarguably a change would be good for boosting
the sagging morale and hence desirable.
Insofar as Modi becoming PM is concerned – it is an
extremely complicated proposition. For one, Modi’s strengths are becoming his
major problems, much like the brave prince Abhimanyu in Mahabharata.
Modi sure does know how to govern and lead the nation, but
winning 272 seats is something he cannot do on his own. (Abhimanyu knew how to
enter the Chkravyuh but did not know how to break the fulcrum and exit)
In my view, Narendra Modi is playing his part well enough.
He has created a wave and penetrated deep in the opposition bastions, but he
has a weak army which is not keeping pace with him; often leaving him alone in
the battle hence imperiling his chances of victory.
Apparently Modi faces the following three major obstacles in
his march towards 7RCR:
(a)
Limited reach of BJP – geographically and
communal. BJP’s presence is mostly confined to 250-275 Lok Sabha seats.
In 2009 it contested 433, won 116, was runner up in 110 and lost deposit in
170. In its best show in 1999, with widest possible alliance it won 182/339 and
was runner up in another 112. The best show this time with present alliances
could take BJP to 200-210 odd seats (Exhibit 2), with pre-poll allies
contributing another 15-20.
(b)
Modi’s perception of a good and
non-corruptible administrator. In past decade a trend has emerged
whereby the people have mostly voted for continuity if the image of the leader
is good. 13 chief ministers from 8 different parties are currently serving 2nd
to 5th term. Incumbent PM is also serving second term (though he has
made himself unavailable for 3rd term). (Exhibit 1)
This trend might be worrying many potential allies and even BJP
leaders. If Modi become PM and performs as per expectations, evicting him from
7RCR could be difficult in next 10-15years. This may (a) help BJP expanding to
its traditionally weak areas like South India or North East; and (b) impede the
personal ambitions of many senior leaders (within BJP and outside) of getting a
chance to occupy PM’s chair. These leaders may therefore not want a strong
leader as PM.
(c)
Secularism as fulcrum of opportunistic
politics. A Modi victory will likely make the political debate over
secularism redundant. This will break the very fulcrum of the politics of
convenience used by various opposing parties to join hands to form governments.
Many politicians and parties like TMC, JDU, SP, BSP, RJD, TDP, BJD, ADMK, LJP,
NC, JMM etc., would not like to lose this significant tool to gain/retain
power.
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