Thought for the day
“I knew it was too good to be true. Some things never
change...”
-Unknown
Word for the day
Welkin (n)
The sky; the vault of heaven.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
It appears from recent actions of the government that it
deliberately allowed US diplomats (any probably many others) to break a number
of laws.
Will someone explain why?
Will AAP seek prosecution of officers who failed in their
duty to enforce law?
Too good to be true! Might be! Perhaps not!
Five years ago in late summer of 2008, the global financial
markets received what was thought to be one of the biggest shocks in history of
world finance. The crash of Lehman sent shockwaves across the world. Enormous
amount of investors’ wealth was destroyed. Epithets for EU and US were written
and rehearsed in right earnest.
The 2013 however saw a dramatic turnaround. And at beginning of
2014 it everything appears superbly normal.
·
TARP money has been mostly refunded.
·
QE has begun to taper. Bond yields have started
firming.
·
The feared hyper inflation due to humongous
liquidity infusion has failed to make any appearance.
·
US unemployment levels have fallen to more
acceptable levels.
·
UK housing prices are above 2007 highs.
·
UK car sales are close to 2006 high levels.
·
To dismay of EU breakup proponents, EU has just
got a new member in Latvia.
·
PIGS are flying everywhere. Ireland has already
returned to bond market. Greece may soon join the party.
·
Many global equity markets are trading close to
or higher than their pre Lehman 2008 high levels.
·
Junk bond issues are close to 2007 highs.
·
Gold, silver and US treasuries, widely considered
safe havens, are consensus underweight/sell.
·
JPY is at multi year low to USD and EUR is close
to its strongest levels.
·
Most EU yields are at reasonable level.
·
Most analysts are bullish on EU and bearish on
EMs.
·
After decades Japan is back on investors’ radar.
·
New theme MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea
and Turkey) has been coined to replace fallen from grace BRICs.
·
China has not crash landed as most feared. The
soft landing has been rather well managed.
·
No major war has erupted despite serious
provocations. Iran appears to have fallen in line. Egypt, Syria, Libya, are
simmering but just that. Pakistan had its first ever democratic change of
government and al-Queda has failed to make major strike post Osama elimination.
Instinctively, all this looks amazing - too good to be true.
Perhaps it is not! Might be it is! Next week lets attempt to look India under
this light or should we say ‘grey shade’.
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