Thought for
the day
“Most of us spend too much time on the last twenty-four
hours and too little on the last six thousand years.”
-Will Durant (American, 1885-1981)
Word of the
day
Largesse (n)
Generous bestowal of gifts.
Generous bestowal of gifts.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
Morarji Desai (1977); V. P. Singh (1989); NTR (1982);
Praful Mahanta (1985) Arvind Kejariwal (2013)?
A quick telephonic survey of 28 young finance
professionals - 16 were not aware if V.
P. Singh is dead or alive; 13 thought Morarji Desai was a RSS colleague of Atal
Bihari Vajpayee and no one remembers who were three main leaders who founded
AGP!
Congress losses semi final; captain retired
hurt
The results of recently concluded four state assembly
election, though not unexpected, would have surprised most. The key highlights
of the results are (a) The people have mostly continued with the trend seen in
past 3-4years by giving a decisive mandate at the state level; (b) complete and
total decimation of Congress Party; (c) strong performance of the newly formed
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and (d) stupendous victories of Shivraj Singh Chauhan and
Vasundhara Raje in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan respectively.
The elections which were widely seen as semi final of the
general elections due in 4months, have provided some very interesting trends.
For example consider the following:
(a)
In Delhi, Congress lost its traditional Muslim,
SC and lower caste vote in Delhi to AAP. BJP failed to win central government
employees who also went with AAP. But in MP and Rajasthan BJP gained votes from
both BSP and Congress.
These trends could be crucial during 2014 general election in UP
and Bihar. A change in voting pattern of Muslim, OBC and SC voters in favor of
BJP in these states could be a major swing factor.
(b)
Encouraged by Delhi results, AAP could take
their chances in other metropolis, e.g., Mumbai, Bangalore, NOIDA where
conditions are fertile for their kind of politics to take root.
(c)
Besides Congress the other major loser in this
election seems to be BSP.
(d)
The detractors of Narendra Modi within BJP have
got another chance; though they may not want to express their dissention before
2014 election. In case, BJP falls well short of 200 seats in 2014 election,
Shivraj will definitely emerge as consensus leader around which a larger
coalition could be stitched.
Implications
The results of just concluded state assembly elections, in our
view, will certainly have far reaching implications for various parties in
particular and general political environment in general. For example consider
the following:
(a)
The chasm between old feudal lordship within
Congress Party and young turks has been widening since past few years. Loss in
2013 elections will embolden the old guards. With Mrs. Sonia Gandhi not in best
of her health, and Rahul being repeatedly rejected by the people of India, we
might see some Kamraj, Morarji Desai, Jagjiwan Ram, Biju Patnaik, Mamata
Banerjee, Jagan Reddy Mohammed Alimuddin and Bhajan Lal sort of rebellion
against the family. Nonetheless there could certainly be more episodes of
Kamalapati Tripathi, Sharad Pawar and Sitaram Kesari sort of misadventures.
Rahul Gandhi in “acknowledgement of defeat” press interaction
highlighted that the feudal elements in Congress Party have not heeded to his
suggestion of changing the way party has traditionally worked. He said that he
would pursue his agenda more aggressively going forward.
(b)
Priayanka Gandhi has not been tested yet, but in
our view, faced with such a situation she may not be as successful as Mrs. Indira
Gandhi was in overcoming the threat from Syndicate in late 1960’s.
(c)
Absence of any recognized national level leader
outside Gandhi family will encourage more secession on lines of Sharad Pawar,
Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, et al. This could be especially true in case of
states where Congress enjoys reasonably higher vote share but is doing poorly
in terms of electoral wins, e.g., UP, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
(d)
With Narendra Modi at the helm, the secularism
vs. communalism debate will become almost irrelevant breaking the very fulcrum
of opportunist alliances that have kept Congress and some regional parties like
RJD in contention since mid 1990’s. The disenchantment of Muslim voters with
Congress Party in recent elections indicates to this trend.
In a communally neutral political environment the regional
parties would be more amenable to BJP which does not compete with many of these
at state level and has demonstrated better track record in center – state
relations.
(e)
With Congress likely out of power for 5years,
much reduced strength in Rajya Sabha and only a few states under its rule
(forecasts suggest it losing Andhra Pradesh too, leaving it with just one big
state under its rule, i.e., Maharashtra) the already meager cadre may further
splinter away, making a comeback even more unlikely.
(f)
Congress Party in panic may reverse its decision
of going alone in the election in the key states like UP and Bihar. This would
structurally weaken the Congress as they would get much fewer seats to contest
and therefore find it difficult to retain their flocks together.
(g)
Modi effect is clearly visible in the state
election results. Despite strong undercurrent in favor of AAP and bitter
infighting in BJP, the party has been able to retain its traditional voter
base. In MP and Rajasthan it has broken new grounds. In Chhattisgarh, despite a
strong sympathy wave in critical tribal areas of Bastar, BJP could scrape
through. Weakening of Congress Party could further aid in strengthening of this
trend.
Modi will however need to change his strategy to positive
campaigning from mere Congress bashing as that space is crowded and regional
parties might have edge over BJP in that space. The performance of AAP will
certainly encourage the regional parties to adopt an aggressive anti UPA
strategy.
(h)
It is also clear that Modi alone will not be
sufficient to take BJP home. BJP would need a strong local leadership to gain
new grounds. The key states of UP, Haryana, West Bengal, Karnataka, Andhra
Pradesh, Assam and Maharashtra etc. still do not have strong and popular
leadership.
(i)
India shall now move even faster towards a truly
federal structure of governance with strong state leaderships and a
“cooperating” central administration.
Tomorrow we shall discuss the
socio-economic implications of the results.
No comments:
Post a Comment