Thought for
the day
“Who can love to walk in the dark? But providence doth
often so dispose.”
Oliver Cromwell (English, 1599-1658)
Word of the
day
Pilcrow (n)
A paragraph mark.
A paragraph mark.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada Uvāca
8 gang rapes in 8months in Mumbai!
As we approach the first anniversary of notorious Delhi
rape case (16 Dec), do we need to reassess the corrective and preventive measures
taken so far?
…but harvest time may still be 2-3years away
The trend growth decline that began from FY09 may not
bottom before end of FY16, even if we accept the rather bullish estimates of
government agencies
In our view, it is pertinent to keep a watch on the periodic
macro data. But it is often not appropriate to let these data lead a
substantial change in the direction of investment strategy. A profitable
investment strategy, in our view, needs to be based on medium to long term
growth magnitude and direction.
Insofar as the current medium to long term growth trend in India
is concerned, in our view, the trend growth decline that began from FY09 may
not bottom before end of FY16, even if we accept the rather bullish estimates
of government agencies.
The resumption of up move in medium term trend growth would only
lead to a stable growth environment in the country and sustainable gain in
equity prices, because a sustained growth over medium term would only-
(a)
bridge the output gap and create demand for
investment;
(b)
lead to creation of productive employment
opportunities;
(c)
provide fiscal leverage to government for
increasing social sector spending and thus increasing the sustainability of
growth;
(d)
lead to stability in prices as more capacities
are added;
(e)
lead to sustainable monetary easing as fiscal
condition improves; and
(f)
lead to rise in private income and savings, thus
providing impetus to private consumption;
In our view, the potential growth of India under current
circumstances is not more than 6%. Growing at 5-6% in the current direction
would not lead to enough employment opportunities and strong consumption story
will not remain sustainable. Agriculture, as we have seen in past couple of
years is still “God” driven. Basing an investment strategy on God’s will alone is
not advisable in our view.
(Source: CSO. InvesTrekk Global Research)
Also read Green shoots seen…
Also read Green shoots seen…
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