“Whenever there is decline of
Dharma (righteousness
and rise of Adharma (unrighteousness);
To protect the virtuous
to destroy the wicked and to re-establish Dharma,
I manifest myself, through the ages.
and rise of Adharma (unrighteousness);
To protect the virtuous
to destroy the wicked and to re-establish Dharma,
I manifest myself, through the ages.
Bhagavad Gita,
Chapter IV, Verse 7.
KEY MESSAGE
NaMo – the divine intervention!!!
Based on our interaction with numerous people across the country, we are
of the view that Narendra Modi is emerging as a “phenomenon”, much like Mrs. Indira
Gandhi. He had been a popular leader amongst urban middle class for long.
However, in recent times his popularity is extending beyond the traditional
base as he gains more popularity amongst rural and semi urban population.
Increasingly seen as divine intervention
At this point in time most of Modi’s support from outside the
traditional BJP support base is emanating from strong anti establishment
sentiments, especially amongst youth.
Not surprisingly, the traditional Indian belief of divine
intervention at the time of crisis is playing in his favor. Modi is being seen
as divine intervention that will get India rid of the current social,
political, and economic crisis.
Could potentially change the fabric of Indian politics
In the immediate term, Mr. Modi’s leadership provides a strong,
decisive, and marketable face to the BJP’s campaign that was missing in post
Vajpayee period. This has certainly lifted the sagging spirits of BJP cadre and
made the floating voters thoughtful.
However, the implication of his evolution as a dominant national
leader could be much more significant on a longer term basis. This could
potentially culminate in creation of a sustainable alternative to the Congress
Party – a process that started in 1975. This essentially implies that de
facto federalization of Indian political structure would take place at an
accelerated pace.
Economic impact not yet clear, business confidence may
improve
In our view, considering
the present state of socio-economic development of various parts of the
country, it would be 10-15years too early to test the Laissez-faire model at
the pan-India level. Modi’s Gujarat model therefore may need significant
adjustments at the national level. Perhaps an amalgam of Gujarat’s
Laissez-faire and Chhattisgarh’s socialist models could provide a more workable
model at this point in time. However, Modi’s elevation would certainly help in
improving the business confidence and therefore encourage investments to pick
up
What could PM Modi mean to India?
Modi has caught fancy of people
“Politicians and diapers must be changes often, and for the same reason.”
Mark Twain
(American, 1835-1910)
The declaration of Mr. Narendra Modi as PMship candidate of BJP
has caught the imagination of people worldwide.
Some unconfirmed reports suggest that Modi might have even beaten
US president Obama as the most searched person on a single day. No other Indian
politician from India may have raised so many inquisitions since Rajiv Gandhi.
Incorrect to dismiss him as mere media hype
After announcement of Narendra Modi as official PMship candidate
of BJP, the popular debate in the country has heated up further.
The Congress Party publically appeared dismissive in its
response, while the response of other parties has been mixed. The traditional
rivals like communists & RJD and recently divorced JDU have been expectedly
extremely critical; whereas many non-aligned parties like AIDMK, BJD, BSP, TMC
and SP have been guarded in their response.
The response of media and political observers has also been
mixed at best. The electronic media has mostly focused on how arithmetically it
is improbable for Mr. Modi to achieve the goal. The intra party debate and
dissention over his appointment has also been highlighted. The observers and
commentators both in print and electronic media have so far appeared mostly
prejudiced by their political inclinations.
Modi’s success would mark a watershed in Indian politics
Mr. Modi’s Delhi campaign started in right earnest only after
his third straight electoral victory in Gujarat last winter. Early this year,
we had made an attempt to assess his acceptability as the leader of the country
through a very small telephonic survey (see here).
We followed up the February survey by a little larger and deeper
survey in past few days. We attempted in particular to explore what in popular
perception Modi will do to improve the sagging economic fortunes of the country
if he becomes prime minister. We also tried to assess what would it mean for
Indian political milieu.
Key conclusions
(a)
Modi has gained tremendously in popularity since
February, particularly in smaller town and cities.
(b)
Much of his support amongst youth at present is
driven by a strong anti establishment sentiment. The affirmative support for
his views on social-economic policy is slender and confined to upper middle
class business community. A progressive election agenda would likely convert
this anti-establishment vote to an affirmative support.
(c)
There are early signs of a wave building in his
favor, especially in the Hindi speaking belt. The mass contact program, in the
garb of “iron piece collection for Sardar Patel’s statue” beginning October
should accelerate the momentum.
(d)
A victory in this winter assembly elections
would win him more allies, especially in southern states.
Watershed in Indian politics
(American, 1835-1910)
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