Thursday, April 25, 2019

Managing change - a political perspective - 3

Some food for thought
"Revelation can be more perilous than Revolution."
—Vladimir Nabokov (American Novelist, 1899-1977)
Word for the day
Bardolatry (n)
Great or excessive adoration of or reverence for William Shakespeare
 
First thought this morning
The incumbent government is inducting 9 professionals into civil service at joint secretary level. Though the issue of lateral entry of professional with domain expertise in civil services was being debated for many decades, it appears to have been now settled. If successful, this will go down in history of independent India as a watershed reform.
I am not privy to the criteria, if any, that will be used by successive governments for appointment of professional directly at higher levels in administrative hierarchy, but I would like to see, inter alia, the following safeguard being taken:
(a)   There should be a objective qualification criteria for lateral entry of professionals in civil services. The selection and appointments should be made by UPSC without any political interference and pressure.
(b)   Adequate safeguard should be applied to make sure that the process does not degenerate into discretionary political appointments like political advisors/secretaries and OSDs by ministers.
(c)    The tenure of the lateral appointees must be fixed and posting limited to the departments falling within their domain of expertise.
(d)   The Chief Secretary must be made accountable for their induction and cooperation by the legacy civil servants. Former UIDAI chief Nandan Nilekani's experience in this context could be very useful.
(e)    The lateral appointments should not become matter of lobbying and favoritism just like directorships in PSU Banks, PSEs and various development Boards and Corporations.
Chart of the day
 
Notes from my Diary
Continuing from yesterday (see here).
To manage any material change, especially in a large organization, it is very important to reinforce and embed desired changes in structures, processes, systems, target setting, and incentives. The change, to be effective, must presume that people don’t always behave rationally.
Reinforcing mechanism
Many studies have found that for human beings satisfaction equals perception minus expectation. There is not much evidence to prove that spending money on public utilities and providing subsidies and incentives directly motivates people to accept the changes proposed by government.
Sometimes small, unexpected rewards, which improve perception of voters, could materially enhance their satisfaction. To the contrary, major cash incentives falling short of expectations may actually lead to poor perception and dissatisfaction.
It is therefore important that the proposed change passes the test of "fairness and justice", implying that it should not only be in the interest of common public, it must be perceived by the public to be so.
Therefore, in implementing any changes that may have wider socio-economic impact, the politicians responsible for the change managers must pay great amount of attention to voters' sense of the fairness of the change process and its intended outcome.
Demonetization, GST, stringent tax compliance enforcement, etc., are some changes by the incumbent government that may not have been perceived to be totally fair and just, causing resentment and dissatisfaction.
To minimize the resentment, BJP has introduced an element of insecurity and danger in people's perception. Using Pulwama terror attack as background, a sense of urgency to secure borders, before ensuring socio-economic well being of people, was thrust upon voters. The perception has been enhanced through an unexpected airstrike in Pakistan's airspace, giving voters an immediate sense of security and well being.
Building capabilities
To make any change effective, it is critical that necessary skills and talent is developed in the target audience.
As governments attempt to drive economy by changing the way common people behave, they often neglect the thoughts, feelings, and beliefs that, in turn, drive behavior of people.
Social reforms are therefore equally, or even more, important than economic reforms for sustainable faster growth.
The sub-par performance of Cleanliness Mission is an important case in point. The Mission has not been adequately supplemented by behavioral training to people and capability building for civic authorities. No one in the country denies the need and importance of cleanliness; yet we see people littering, dumping domestic garbage in drains and open grounds, spitting in public places etc. This clearly indicates to lack of efforts in behavior management and skill building.
To conclude, I would say, the political establishment to which people want to assign power to govern, must only not possess a clear vision for faster and sustainable socio-economic development, it must be competent enough to manage the changes that may be needed for attaining the goals.
Also read

 

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Managing change - a political perspective - 2



Some food for thought
"The evolution of sense is, in a sense, the evolution of nonsense."
—Vladimir Nabokov (American Novelist, 1899-1977)
Word for the day
Easter egg (n)
A hidden message, as a cryptic reference, iconic image, or inside joke, that fans are intended to discover in a television show or movie.
First thought this morning
The sitting MP from North West Delhi and Dalit face of BJP has openly "threatened" the party leadership that if he is not re nominated as candidate from his current constituency, he will quit the party (see here).
This type of pressure tactic is not uncommon during elections. Every party faces this as they try to find equilibrium between anti incumbency, winability, need to address aspirations of other stakeholders, need to give opportunity to new candidates, need to address the changed circumstances (united opposition, or changed demographics etc.) and above all need to benefit from some immediate event (e.g., sports victory, hit movie, civil unrest, war, terrorist strike, death of a candidate/potential candidate/public servant etc.)
The "top controlled" parties, who primarily rely on the personal charisma of their leader, are commonly seen to nominate candidates without much consultation with the workers on ground. However, cadre based parties like CPM and BJP have traditionally been known for mostly promoting candidates from their cadre only.
The trend in BJP however began to change from 2014 elections when a significant number of "outsiders" were nominated to contest election on lotus symbol. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections have seen the trend peaking, with the party nominating much larger number of candidates who have joined the party just a few days before securing nomination. These "outsiders" include retired bureaucrats, artists, sportspersons, defectors from other parties, monks, and other celebrities. This is obviously inspiring some dissent amongst the unsuccessful aspirants.
Admittedly, this is an internal matter of BJP, just like any other party, to decide who to nominate as party candidate, and who not to nominate. But a traditional BJP voter may want to consider the following, before casting his vote:
(a)   Will the candidate I am voting for, represent me adequately in the parliament? Will he/she be committed to raise my issues in the parliament and adequately seek redressal of my grievances from the government?
Unfortunately, the empirical evidence suggests that the track record of most celebrity candidates has been completely unsatisfactory in past couple of decades at least.
(b)   Is BJP degenerating into a "top controlled" party (like Congress, SP, BSP, RJD, Shiv Sena, DMK, AIDMAK, et. al.) where the opportunities for "cadre" are getting limited?
(c)    Does BJP leadership, like Congress and other parties, also want more non-participating members in parliament, who would support the High Command actions without questioning the appropriateness or rationale behind such action?
(d)   Is it a vote for prime minister or someone who will represent the voters in the Parliament?
National Security, incidentally is a collective responsibility of all citizens. The 790 members of parliament who represent all citizens of the country, are duty bound to ensure that adequate measures are taken to guarantee internal and external security of nation.
(e)    The last, but not the least, if the world's largest political party could not find 425 odd candidates from its own members, there must be something seriously wrong somewhere!
Do you recall how celebrities rushed to join AAP in 2013!

Chart of the day
Managing change - a political perspective - 2
Continuing from yesterday (see here), let's now try to analyze the 2019 election strategy and campaign narrative of BJP. It is however very important to note that I am analyzing BJP poll strategy because it is the largest party in the country, and currently in power at center and largest number of states. It is without prejudice and has nothing to do with my political preferences.
A compelling story
In 2014, BJP secured massive mandate and wrested power from Congress led UPA after 10years, by impressing upon people the urgent need for change.
The narrative was that policy paralysis due to passive leadership, pervasive corruption, cronyism, dynastic politics etc has caused tremendous harm to the economy and image of the country and therefore people must chose a decisive leader (Narendra Modi) who has proven track record (as Gujarat CM) of honesty, integrity, execution and has demonstrated a great vision for modern India.
Traditional RSS/BJP narrative of making India Vishwa Guru (Global Leader) again by restoring the glorious Indian traditions and knowledge had been tried many times, but it failed to impress poor, backward and oppressed. It only helped keeping the urban middle classes within BJP fold.
Therefore, to appeal to a wider section of population, and to some extent to obliterate the stigma of 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, a strong commitment was made towards "inclusivity" (Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas). To address the changes in electorate demographics in past 10years, aspirations of youth were also kept in prime focus with promise of Achhe Din through jobs.
People living north of Deccan Plateau bought the story and gave unprecedented mandate to BJP.
However, in execution, BJP appeared divided between its traditional "Cultural (Hindu) Nationalism" agenda and promise of inclusive growth. Consequently, it has been unable to fully satisfy its traditional middle class Hindu supporters as well as newly acquired poor and backward class voters.
The BJP leadership now fully realizes that voters cannot be motivated by Ram Rajya narrative as it has inter alia (a) failed in solving the contentious Ram Mandir issue; (b) not been able to usher a Hindu renaissance despite its half hearted "Cow Protection" campaign; (c) been tentative in taking a stand on Sabrimala issue; and (d) tacitly supported decriminalization of Section 377 of IPC.
They also realize that they have not been able to address all the concerns of minorities, poor, and backward. In fact, considering the fiscal and political constraints, it is not at all possible to satisfy all groups, regions and communities etc. Moreover, their commitment to core agenda of Hindu Cultural Nationalism may also have annoyed some minority groups.
On the economic policy front, the incumbent government did implemented some radical changes like replacing Planning Commission with NITI Aayog and Demonetization of high value currency, etc. The government apparently made most of these changes without preparing a conceptual framework and impact study. In some cases (e.g., NITI Aayog) it did not bother to convince people about the need and importance for the change. In other cases (e.g., Demonetization) it miserably failed in convincing the people at large.
Consequently, the story which appeared very convincing in 2014, has been totally dropped, and a residual story of "threat to National Security" and "Modi the Saviour" is being narrated at high pitch. The opinion polls suggest that this story is actually selling. In past, Mrs. Indira Gandhi had used this story effectively and successfully many times.
Role modeling
Role modeling is one of the most critical aspects of change management, especially when it comes to managing behavioral changes.
The incumbent government sought to induce many behavioral changes in common man, through public policy, administrative initiatives, and statutory pronouncements etc.
Some major initiatives included (a) Cleanliness; (b) Tax compliance; (c) Digital payments; (d) Sustainability (renewable energy, public transport, plastic use, river rejuvenation etc.); and (e) self reliance (less reliance on subsidies, self employment, Make in India etc.).
Conventional change management requires that leaders should take actions that role model the desired change and mobilize a group of influence leaders to drive change deep into the target group.
We have seen images of prime minister travelling by metro, picking a scrap paper and putting it in pocket on a dais of large conference, standing with a broom, taking a dip in Ganga etc.
But unfortunately, the change has not percolated down to a typical BJP supporter. The party has not administered any oath to its 100 million members for maintaining cleanliness, not using plastic, prefer use of public transport, using Swadeshi, and comply with all tax rules in letter and spirit.
The people do commend the noble government initiatives, the voluntary compliance level is far from the desired level.
...to continue tomorrow

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Managing change - a political perspective



Some food for thought
"The first step on the way to victory is to recognize the enemy."
—Corrie Ten Boom (Dutch Author, 1892-1983)
Word for the day
Gabelle (n)
A tax; Excise duty.
 
First thought this morning
Travelling from Ghaziabad to NOIDA yesterday with a friend was a true revelation. The friend lives in Ghaziabad right on NH24, and works in NOIDA. He drives a total of 78kms to and from his office every day. His daily travel time ranges between 2-4hrs, besides 10-11 work hours. As I understood from him, there are more than 100 thousand people like him, who daily travel from Ghaziabad to NOIDA and Delhi. My friend does not have access to any mode of public transport from his home to office.
The conversation during our two and half journey covering 39kms was obviously about the current political landscape. To begin the conservation, I asked a staple question, "who would you vote for?" "None", he replied without a blink. "Why?" I tried to prod. "Wait till we reach NOIDA, and you'd find yourself", he replied sarcastically.
To make life easier for the people travelling daily from NCR towns like Merrut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, etc to Delhi and NOIDA, the government started the project to widen NH24. The construction work has transformed the 30kms drive from Pilkhua to UP Gate on NH24 into Temple Run (popular mobile game). In a hurry to meet deadline (revised many times) the work is being executed in a perilous and haphazard way. There are number of ominous diversions, dark spots, mud piles on the way. The operating lanes are narrow and unplanned. You find pedestrians, bikers, autorikshaw and large dumpers appear right in front of you, literally from nowhere. People unapologetically drive on wrong side to see eye to eye with the oncoming vehicles. To make the matter worse, stray cows, cranes and excavators used in construction stop at will in the middle of the narrow operating roads.
"I, and many like me, live by the day. We thank our stars if we reach home alive at end of each day", my friend quipped after showing me all this. "No politician thinks about us. They think, they are constructing this road to make our life easier; but by the time this road will get completed, many lives would have already been ruined. I have no family life. By the time I reach home, I just want to sleep. I have developed a back problem that perhaps will never be cured. My young child has got asthma. My father, who used to run a big bath linen shop in Pilkhua (a small town of weavers in Ghaziabad) is virtually out of business. And I am not alone in this mess. This road may get completed in 4-5years, but the damage to my life would be permanent", he lamented profusely.
The solution, of course is not stop building roads and other infrastructure for public good. The solution is to plan and execute these projects in more human way. Making a proper operating service road, deploying adequate number of traffic Marshalls and evacuation cranes, pre defining the time slots for moving construction material, prompt removal of waste material and debris, can relieve significant amount of pain. It may lead to 5-7% rise in cost of projects, but that would be totally worth it. Anyways, the cost overruns of 25-75% are not uncommon in infrastructure projects.
To assimilate fully what I am trying to say, please drive to Pilkhua from UP gate on NH24 between 5-8PM on any working day.
"Ease of Living", after all is not only a slogan to be put in election manifestoes. The politicians must know what does it actually mean. Next time someone digs a road near you, and leaves without restoring it to pre digging condition, don't suffer in silence. Raise your voice. Hold the municipal authorities, elected representatives and the contractors accountable for adding inconvenience and stress to your life. Please be intolerant.
 
Managing change - a political perspective
I am completely perplexed by the election narrative of Prime Minister Modi. I fail to understand why he has chosen to make "national security" and "nationalism" his primary election campaign, instead of the issues like faster development, inclusiveness, sustainability, probity in public life, equal opportunity, etc. which won him massive majority in 2014.
Have these issues lost their relevance? - No one would agree to this.
Have "national security" and "nationalism" issues become more pertinent and/or urgent compared to important socio-economic issues, than these were in 2014? - There is no material evidence to suggest.
Has the incumbent government failed in pursuing the agenda of development, inclusiveness, sustainability, probity in public life and equal opportunity etc., and hence it is using 'national security" as a distraction to retain power? - This is debatable. But in my view, terming the performance of the government in past 5years "a failure" would be totally unreasonable. "Partial success", in my view, is more appropriate grade.
Even more interesting is the fact that the report card of 5yr BJP is presenting to the electorate is mostly focused on the doles and subsidies (Free LPG connection, farm loan waiver, housing and toilet subsidy, Rs6000/yr cash dole to small farmers, etc.) The party usually refrains from mentioning abolition of planning commission, demonetization, changes in government procurement procedures, changes in defense procurement policy, changes in road construction model (from PPP to HAM), collapse in wind and solar power tariffs, etc amongst its major achievements. Even GST is mostly mentioned as a passing reference.
Searching for answers to my inquisition, I stumbled upon an article in McKinsey Quarterly Magazine, titled "The irrational side of change management". (Read here) I find it useful in analyzing the 2019 election strategy of BJP.
"In 1996, John Kotter published Leading Change. Considered by many to be the seminal work in the field of change management, Kotter’s research revealed that only 30 percent of change programs succeed." "In 2008, a McKinsey survey of 3,199 executives around the world found, as Kotter did, that only one transformation in three succeeds. Other studies over the past ten years reveal remarkably similar results. It seems that, despite prolific output, the field of change management hasn’t led to more successful change programs."
The article cites that McKinsey’s Emily Lawson and Colin Price provided a holistic perspective in “The psychology of change management.  Applying their theory to current political conditions, I can say that the following four basic conditions that must be met for the voters to accept the changes introduced by the government:
(a)   A compelling story, because public must see the point of the change and agree with it;
(b)   Role modeling, because public must also see their leader and his team they admire behaving in the new way;
(c)    Reinforcing mechanisms, because systems, processes, and incentives must be in line with the new behavior; and
(d)   Capability building, because public must have the skills and resources to adopt and the desired changes.
To analyze the performance of the incumbent government, and thus its 2019 election strategy, it is critical to ascertain whether Team Modi followed these principles in introducing the changes, it wanted everyone to accept......to continue tomorrow.