Some food for thought
"The evolution of sense is, in a sense, the evolution of
nonsense."
—Vladimir Nabokov (American Novelist, 1899-1977)
Word for the day
Easter egg (n)
A hidden message, as a cryptic reference, iconic image, or
inside joke, that fans are intended to discover in a television show or movie.
First thought this morning
The sitting MP from North West Delhi and Dalit face of BJP has
openly "threatened" the party leadership that if he is not re
nominated as candidate from his current constituency, he will quit the party (see here).
This type of pressure tactic is not uncommon during elections.
Every party faces this as they try to find equilibrium between anti incumbency,
winability, need to address aspirations of other stakeholders, need to give
opportunity to new candidates, need to address the changed circumstances
(united opposition, or changed demographics etc.) and above all need to benefit
from some immediate event (e.g., sports victory, hit movie, civil unrest, war,
terrorist strike, death of a candidate/potential candidate/public servant etc.)
The "top controlled" parties, who primarily rely on
the personal charisma of their leader, are commonly seen to nominate candidates
without much consultation with the workers on ground. However, cadre based
parties like CPM and BJP have traditionally been known for mostly promoting
candidates from their cadre only.
The trend in BJP however began to change from 2014 elections
when a significant number of "outsiders" were nominated to contest
election on lotus symbol. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections have seen the trend
peaking, with the party nominating much larger number of candidates who have
joined the party just a few days before securing nomination. These
"outsiders" include retired bureaucrats, artists, sportspersons,
defectors from other parties, monks, and other celebrities. This is obviously
inspiring some dissent amongst the unsuccessful aspirants.
Admittedly, this is an internal matter of BJP, just like any
other party, to decide who to nominate as party candidate, and who not to
nominate. But a traditional BJP voter may want to consider the following,
before casting his vote:
(a) Will the
candidate I am voting for, represent me adequately in the parliament? Will
he/she be committed to raise my issues in the parliament and adequately seek
redressal of my grievances from the government?
Unfortunately, the empirical evidence suggests that the track
record of most celebrity candidates has been completely unsatisfactory in past
couple of decades at least.
(b) Is BJP
degenerating into a "top controlled" party (like Congress, SP, BSP,
RJD, Shiv Sena, DMK, AIDMAK, et. al.) where the opportunities for
"cadre" are getting limited?
(c) Does BJP
leadership, like Congress and other parties, also want more non-participating
members in parliament, who would support the High Command actions without
questioning the appropriateness or rationale behind such action?
(d) Is it a vote for
prime minister or someone who will represent the voters in the Parliament?
National Security, incidentally is a collective responsibility
of all citizens. The 790 members of parliament who represent all citizens of
the country, are duty bound to ensure that adequate measures are taken to
guarantee internal and external security of nation.
(e) The last, but
not the least, if the world's largest political party could not find 425 odd
candidates from its own members, there must be something seriously wrong
somewhere!
Do you recall how celebrities rushed to join AAP in 2013!
Chart of the day
Managing change - a political perspective - 2
Continuing from yesterday (see
here), let's now try to analyze the 2019 election strategy and campaign
narrative of BJP. It is however very important to note that I am analyzing BJP
poll strategy because it is the largest party in the country, and currently in
power at center and largest number of states. It is without prejudice and has
nothing to do with my political preferences.
A compelling story
In 2014, BJP secured massive mandate and wrested power from
Congress led UPA after 10years, by impressing upon people the urgent need for
change.
The narrative was that policy paralysis due to passive
leadership, pervasive corruption, cronyism, dynastic politics etc has caused
tremendous harm to the economy and image of the country and therefore people
must chose a decisive leader (Narendra Modi) who has proven track record (as
Gujarat CM) of honesty, integrity, execution and has demonstrated a great
vision for modern India.
Traditional RSS/BJP narrative of making India Vishwa Guru
(Global Leader) again by restoring the glorious Indian traditions and knowledge
had been tried many times, but it failed to impress poor, backward and
oppressed. It only helped keeping the urban middle classes within BJP fold.
Therefore, to appeal to a wider section of population, and to
some extent to obliterate the stigma of 2002 communal riots in Gujarat, a
strong commitment was made towards "inclusivity" (Sabka Saath Sabka
Vikas). To address the changes in electorate demographics in past 10years,
aspirations of youth were also kept in prime focus with promise of Achhe Din through jobs.
People living north of Deccan Plateau bought the story and gave
unprecedented mandate to BJP.
However, in execution, BJP appeared divided between its
traditional "Cultural (Hindu) Nationalism" agenda and promise of
inclusive growth. Consequently, it has been unable to fully satisfy its
traditional middle class Hindu supporters as well as newly acquired poor and
backward class voters.
The BJP leadership now fully realizes that voters cannot be
motivated by Ram Rajya narrative as it has inter alia (a) failed in
solving the contentious Ram Mandir issue; (b) not been able to usher a Hindu
renaissance despite its half hearted "Cow Protection" campaign; (c)
been tentative in taking a stand on Sabrimala issue; and (d) tacitly supported
decriminalization of Section 377 of IPC.
They also realize that they have not been able to address all
the concerns of minorities, poor, and backward. In fact, considering the fiscal and
political constraints, it is not at all possible to satisfy all groups, regions
and communities etc. Moreover, their commitment to core agenda of Hindu
Cultural Nationalism may also have annoyed some minority groups.
On the economic policy front, the incumbent government did
implemented some radical changes like replacing Planning Commission with NITI
Aayog and Demonetization of high value currency, etc. The government apparently
made most of these changes without preparing a conceptual framework and impact
study. In some cases (e.g., NITI Aayog) it did not bother to convince people
about the need and importance for the change. In other cases (e.g.,
Demonetization) it miserably failed in convincing the people at large.
Consequently, the story which appeared very convincing in 2014,
has been totally dropped, and a residual story of "threat to National
Security" and "Modi the Saviour" is being narrated at high
pitch. The opinion polls suggest that this story is actually selling. In
past, Mrs. Indira Gandhi had used this story effectively and successfully many
times.
Role modeling
Role modeling is one of the most critical aspects of change
management, especially when it comes to managing behavioral changes.
The incumbent government sought to induce many behavioral
changes in common man, through public policy, administrative initiatives, and
statutory pronouncements etc.
Some major initiatives included (a) Cleanliness; (b) Tax
compliance; (c) Digital payments; (d) Sustainability (renewable energy, public
transport, plastic use, river rejuvenation etc.); and (e) self reliance (less
reliance on subsidies, self employment, Make in India etc.).
Conventional change management requires that leaders should take
actions that role model the desired change and mobilize a group of influence
leaders to drive change deep into the target group.
We have seen images of prime minister travelling by metro,
picking a scrap paper and putting it in pocket on a dais of large conference,
standing with a broom, taking a dip in Ganga etc.
But unfortunately, the change has not percolated down to a typical BJP supporter. The party has not administered any oath to its 100 million members for
maintaining cleanliness, not using plastic, prefer use of public transport, using Swadeshi, and comply with all tax rules in letter and spirit.
The people do commend the noble government initiatives, the
voluntary compliance level is far from the desired level.
...to continue tomorrow
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