Do it yourself

Monday, December 8, 2014

Selling sweets at village fair

Thought for the day

"The best way to keep one's word is not to give it."

- Napoleon Bonaparte (French, 1769-1821)

Word for the day

Genuflect (v)

To be servilely respectful or obedient; to grovel.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Given the behavior of our parliamentarians, do we seriously need to reconsider the Constitution of India?

Selling sweets at village fair

The beginning of the disinvestment process by the new government could at best be described as farce. It reminds me of an old bedtime story, my grandfather used to narrate.

In a village, there lived a widow with her two sons. Both the sons were lazy and hated studying or working. Once when the annual fair of village was going on, the mother prepared some sweets and told her sons to go and sell those sweets in the fair and earn some money. She also gave one rupee each to both the boys for buying food for themselves. Both the sons reluctantly went to the fair, found a shaded place under a big tree and dozed off only to wake up at the lunch time. Feeling hungry, the younger boy bought sweets from his elder brother and gave him one rupee the mother had given him. In return, the elder brother bought sweets worth two rupee from the younger one. In one hour, they had sold all their sweets, had satiated their hunger and had also saved the two rupees their mother had given them. Happy and satisfied, they returned home by late afternoon. Of course to the dismay of their mother.

Since 1991, when the process of selling minority stake in public sector enterprises (PSEs) first started, the government has attended many such fairs and sold lot of such sweets. Who has actually benefitted from this frequent ritual is matter of detailed study.

Unfortunately, what started as a strategic program to limit the role of government in routine businesses like making steel, running airlines etc., has degenerated to a fiscal management tool.

In spite of full recognition of the pertinence of limiting government’s role in business to core and strategic areas and exiting all non-strategic businesses successive governments have failed in achieving the stated objectives and targets.

The February 2002 President address to joint session of the Parliament categorically admitted that “Learning from our experience, especially over the last decade, it is evident that disinvestment in public sector enterprises is no longer a matter of choice, but an imperative. The prolonged fiscal hemorrhage from the majority of these enterprises cannot be sustained any longer.”

The primary reasons for the abject failure, in my view, are:

(a) lack of a comprehensive policy framework on the issue of government role in business and

(b) lack of commitment to the stated objectives of disinvestment.

Evidently, the disinvestment program has been mostly used as a measure to manage fiscal balance rather than as a business or policy decision.

...more on this tomorrow

Friday, December 5, 2014

The game of cat of mouse continues

Thought for the day

"Wisdom is oftentimes nearer when we stoop than when we soar."

- William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850)

Word for the day

Contrite (Adj)

Deeply affected with grief and regret for having done wrong; penitent;

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Which party needs to worry most about coming together of splinters of erstwhile Janta Dal - BJP or Congress?

The game of cat of mouse continues

After reading the 3rd report of the Tax Administration Reform Commission, I am reminded of the tale of Cat and Rats, that I have shared with readers once earlier also.

“Once the king rodent called a general assembly of all rats to ponder over the rising feline threat. Everybody was too concerned and bothered about the menace. After a long deliberation, it was unanimously agreed to appoint a strategic consultant to advise on the matter. The consultant so appointed studied the problem in great detail and came out with this voluminous report, that primarily highlighted that cats are far more powerful, wise and smart animal than mice. Therefore it is extremely difficult for the mice to put up a credible defense against the menacing felines. The only way to counter the threat, the report egregiously suggested, is that all rats should become cats.”

The report just states the "too obvious". Besides being too academic, at places it is seen conspicuously flirting with naiveties. There is nothing remarkable in suggestions like simpler procedures, use of technology for data mining and identifying cases of non-compliance, lesser number of exemptions and deductions etc. However, going back to controversial and mostly unsuccessful measures like FBT and BCTT shows lack of innovative ideas and progressive thinking.

For example, consider that the panel suggests that agriculture income higher than Rs50lacs should be taxed at regular rates. It however does not explain how a farmer in India can earn more than Rs50lacs from agriculture. The average land ceiling for agriculture land in India may be 25acres. The average annual yield per acre varies from Rs20,000 to Rs. Rs1,00,000.

If the number of farmers earning more than Rs50lcs is material, the panel could have assessed how these farmers are earning so much from agriculture. If it is through leased land, whether the government needs to examine the benami holdings. If it is case of higher yields, whether the department should examine the probability of coloring of money in the garb of agriculture income. Some states have liberal land ceiling for horticulture. But the panel is not suggesting segregating horticulture from regular farming.

I also found the following quote from the report amusing:

"It is an admitted fact that the tax culture is lacking in India. Despite considerable efforts to widen the tax base, the number of taxpayers is about half the number who should pay tax if they adhere to the law. Although the rates have been lowered over the years, the country still lacks the desired tax culture that exists in developed nations. It is time perhaps that tax is not considered a burden but a price for public services, if not for civilisation itself."

"To develop a tax culture, revenues collected should be wisely spent and taxpayers should be able to see how their tax money has been spent. This will encourage them to pay willingly and may be happily. Tied to this is the need to curb corruption and tax evasion. Every rupee collected that is misapplied reduces monies that would otherwise be available to the government for developmental purposes."

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Despite the brave talk...

Thought for the day

" Pictures deface walls more often than they decorate them.

- William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850)

Word for the day

Renascent (Adj)

Springing or rising again into being; showing renewed vigor.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

If Naveen Tyagi and Niranjan Jyoti are "Hindu", then I am not! Are you?

Despite the brave talk...

I had an opportunity to meet a group of learned financial market participants last evening. With benchmark indices close to all time high levels; 10yr yields sliding below 8% after long; gold and silver prices in down trend and copper prices slithering towards cycle lows - the sense of discomfort in the room was palpable. From the discussion, I could gather the five major trends that are bothering the discerning minds at this point in time.

(1) The global environment that seemed stable and improving six months ago appears to have taken a turn to the worse. All efforts to accelerate global economic growth through unconventional monetary policies have yielded little result. Major economies of Europe, China, Japan, Russia look more vulnerable today as compared to 2008-09 crisis period. The stability in financial market as measured by the yield of sovereign debt of most troubled European economies, e.g., Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Portugal etc., seems a distortion and hence unsustainable.

(2) The commodities' world look seriously in trouble. The emerging and frontier markets that supported the global economy post 2009 appear more vulnerable than ever. Besides Euro area, many new points of vulnerability have emerged e.g., Latin America, Central Europe, South Africa and Australia.

(3) US that appeared as harbinger of global economic stability and growth till couple of quarters back is posing more questions rather than providing solutions.

It is not yet clear how the USD would react to the rising US rates. If USD strengthens in equal proportion it could be a double whammy for emerging market businesses, especially those carrying huge USD debt.

Moreover, rising US rates may trigger a major USD carry trade and all the USD of world start rushing back to US in search of higher yield. This could be a disaster for EM assets, both equity and debt.

The rising cost of capital may impacts the US consumption demand which is still fragile as shown by poor Thanks Giving numbers. Intuitively lower energy prices should boost US consumer sentiments, but it appears that there is paradigm shift in US consumers' savings habits. If higher costs actually results in even higher propensity to save rather than spend, we may have different kind of problems. The commodity demand may collapse further and deflation specter may acquire even more ominous proportion.

(4) Union Budget for FY16 has become a major milestone for investors hope, in the absence of any concrete program for economic revival in past six months. A below par delivery there could cause major disappointment and reevaluation of Indian economy.

(5) With Bihar (2015), West Bengal (2016) and UP (2017) elections, PM Modi may remain engaged in electioneering forever, leaving the governance to other ministers, who like him may not follow the zero tolerance norm as seriously.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Subsidy reforms: Need a micro approach

Thought for the day

"In modern business it is not the crook who is to be feared most, it is the honest man who doesn't know what he is doing. "

- William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850)

Word for the day

Nosophobia (n)

An abnormal fear of disease.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Heard on street: the top leadership of Congress is in drought mode post Lok Sabha election. Preservation and thrift is the order of the day at Akbar Road and Janpath!

Subsidy reforms: Need a micro approach

One of the major problem with the centralized planning process has been the misguided and misdirected social welfare planning and subsidization programs.

It is critical to evaluate this aspect, along with more popular foreign investment and PSU disinvestment policies, to make a realistic assessment of need for reforms in social spending of the government as in past decade or so it has accounted for over 50% of the total budget spending.

Efforts to achieve socio-economic and regional equality and justice through various subsidies and welfare programs have not yielded desired results in past six decades.

Whereas it is common to cite poor execution and leakages as the primary cause for sub-optimal results of the social welfare programs, in my view, the primary reason is disregard to regional diversities.

For example consider the following:

(a) Lakshadweep (95%) and J&K (65%) have large Muslim population; whereas Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland (65-85%) have large Christian population. Implementing uniform religion based welfare program for these states is bound to fail.

Similarly, the Schedule Tribe population in Hathras district in UP (0.1%) Goa (0.04%) are materially different from the ST population Mizoram (95%) and Lakshdweep (95%). How implementing same reservation policies in these states, Union Territories or even districts could yield desired results.

(b) The southern states in India mostly witness hot weather and receive abundant sunlight. Western states get abundant sunlight, have arid environment. Northern, Central and Eastern states have a variety of seasons, while hill states mostly have cold climate.

Having uniform energy policy and subsidization for all these states is bound to produce disastrous results, as the case have been.

For example, a solar energy based subsidy policy in south and west, a wind and tidal energy based subsidy regime in coastal areas, and a mix of solar/LPG/KSO subsidy regime in northern and central plains, and hydel energy based subsidies to hill areas from beginning could have created an amazing energy security infrastructure in the country in past six decades.

(c) For example, Punjab & Haryana, UP & Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu have very different water resource profile and irrigation infrastructure. Within UP eastern and western parts differ materially. Having uniform food and farm subsidy regime has only increased regional disparities.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Tax reform - make it simple, objective

Thought for the day

"To begin, begin."

- William Wordsworth (English, 1770-1850)

Word for the day

Specter (n)

Some object or source of terror or dread.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

If it is 35 (BJP), 35 (PDP), 12 (NC) and 5 (Congress) in J&K Assembly - How the government will be formed?

Tax reform - make it simple, objective

The debate over tax reforms in past few years has circled around GST, GAAR, simplification of tax filing and assessment procedures, and rationalization/elimination of taxes like dividend distribution tax (DDT); Minimum Alternative Tax (MAT), especially in respect of units located in SEZ; and capital gains tax in respect of securities. The new Direct Tax Code is spoken about as a platitude but not much enthusiasm is shown towards it. Similarly inconsistencies in taxation rules are only spoken about when a change is proposed to the detriment of some strong interest group.

In my view, these issues are important for various interest groups. But to the economy as a whole these issues (except creating a single market through GST) may be relevant at the fringes only.

The debate on tax reform to my mind should focus on three core issues (a) Restructuring of tax provisions to prevent misallocation of capital; (b) improving compliance; and (c) Maximum transparency and objectivity in tax administration.

The objective of tax reforms to my mind should be to make tax laws, rules, regulation and procedures focused, simple transparent, objective, and people centric. For example, consider the following:

(a) All tax incentives to encourage investment and consumption and tax deterrents to discourage investment and consumption may be removed.

Private investment should be encouraged purely as a function of commercial viability and not as matter of tax arbitrage. In my view, tax incentives for investing in equities, windmills, special zones like Baddi (HP), Kashipur (UK) etc. and SEZs, have invariably led to misallocation of capital, rise in cases of tax evasion, manipulation, and rise in tax related litigation. It would be interesting to know if some study has been done to evaluate the cost and benefit of such tax incentives on long term basis.

(b) Providing tax deterrent or incentive to discourage consumption, export or import of specified goods and services has been widely used in India. Many of these have largely failed in achieving the desired objectives. To the contrary in many cases this has been seen to be encouraging unlawful practices like smuggling, black marketing, adulteration etc.

Far removed from their original objectives, some of these practices have actually degenerated into either (a) revenue maximizing tools for the government like in case of duties on tobacco, alcohol and petroleum products or (b) favoring strong interest groups like in case of exceptional import and export duties.

(c) Ambiguity in tax laws and many discretions to the tax administrators has led to harassment of assesses, rise in cases of non-compliance and revenue leakages. Introducing higher degree of objectivity and simpler rules may materially improve compliance level.

The big bang reform would be a flat 16% tax on all income (income tax) and consumption (GST), with no exemption, exception or deduction with sedition charge for voluntary non-compliance....to continue tomorrow

Friday, November 28, 2014

Let people set the agenda

Thought for the day

"Reason has always existed, but not always in a reasonable form."

- Karl Marx (German, 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Nostomania (n)

An irresistible compulsion to return home; intense homesickness.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

For the sake of 10cr Biharis, should NiKu patch up with NaMo and join NDA?

Let people set the agenda

Continuing from yesterday, I would like to clarify here that I fully support and admire any effort to improve the efficiency and productivity of government administration. All the regulatory and procedural changes that enhance competitiveness and profitability of corporates are also welcome.

My concern is that these measures bring incremental changes in the direction and trajectory of economic growth. These measures are usually inadequate in bringing any structural change in the economy, something we need desperately at this point in time of history.

The economic model adopted post independence era, which was mostly an extension of the exploitive colonial model used by British Empire, has promoted inequalities, injustice and unsustainability. This is the economic paradigm we need to change by instituting fundamental reforms. Improving efficiency of the extant system is just not sufficient.

In my view the economic reforms should be designed inter alia with the following objectives in view, viz.,

(a) Developing an environment of equality and mutual trust.

(b) Promoting the strengths of Indian economy rather than bridging the weaknesses.

Inarguably, the most valuable resource for India is her people. In not implementing the recommendation of Balwant Rai Mehta committee (1957) on local self governance, our political system has been unable to develop an environment of mutual trust and transparency and thus failed the people of India. Despite, Narasimha Rao government ensuring 73^rdconstitutional amendment in 1992, the political establishment has shown great reluctance in sharing power with the local bodies and common people.

A key economic reform would be to earnestly hand over the ownership of natural resources to “the public”. Instead of few feudal ministers controlling the resources. The trusteeship of all the natural resources may be vested in the local body of people. The local people should determine how these resources should be exploited. Industry based on these resources if developed on co-operative model with equitable ownership of (i) local people (ii) financial investors and (iii) technical experts who would manage the business, the growth could be fast, equitable, and sustainable.

Similarly, local bodies may also be empowered to decide appropriate taxation structure and incentive formulae to achieve the objective of social, economic & gender equalities, sustainability and development.

For example, each local body may determine the development priorities and allocate resources accordingly. Given the diversified demographic, ecological and socio-economic profile of the country, efficient policies for energy, education, employment, industrial development, ecology conservation etc could efficiently be worked out only at the local level.

...to continue next week

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Rate cut expectations

The consensus amongst analysts and economists is stacked heavily against rate cut on 2nd December. However, the bond traders and investors appear convinced of a rate cut.

This dichotomy is not unprecedented. It is often seen during peaks and troughs of the rate and economic cycles.

More often the traders get it right. However, whenever they are wrong, the losses are huge. Whereas economists and analysts usually have not much to lose, should their expectations not materialize.

In the current instance, I am inclined to go with the bond traders and expect not a 25bps but even 50bps rate cut on 2nd December.

This is nothing to do with the FM or industry urging for a rate cut. I believe that under the current circumstance (credit demand growth 13% and deposit supply growth at 17%) a 25bps policy rate cut will hardly make much difference.

My premise for a rate cut is that it is perhaps the last chance for RBI governor to create a cushion for a likely global crisis next year.

With rates almost at the peak, there is virtually no scope for rate hike should a global currency crisis warrant that. A 50bps cut now will provide that cushion at virtually NIL cost as (a) The risk appetite of banks is low and not likely to improve immediately; (b) inflation is falling due to higher base and global commodity price correction and not likely to go up due to lower rates; and (c) there is sufficient output gap in economy to absorb higher demand without stoking inflation. These condition may not be there 6-9months down the line

Peripheral changes would not do much

Thought for the day

"For the bureaucrat, the world is a mere object to be manipulated by him. "

- Karl Marx (German, 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Gaslight (v)

To cause (a person) to doubt his or her sanity through the use of psychological manipulation.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Should Manmohan Singh volunteer for examination before Coal block allocation and Telecom Spectrum investigation teams/courts?

Peripheral changes would not do much

I have been insisting since ever that "Economic Reform" is perhaps the most misinterpreted, misrepresented, misused, and abused terminology, especially in Indian context.

Businesses have invariably interpreted it as (a) lesser controls; (b) lower taxes; (c) protection from global competition; (d) deeper and easier access to foreign capital; (e) privileged access to natural resources; and (e) freedom to run variety of ponzi schemes.

Politicians usually refer to this term to connote (a) Sale of minority stake in various PSUs; (b) Sale of sick PSUs; (c) higher foreign ownership in local businesses; (d) higher tax to GDP ratio; (e) simplification and complication of taxation rules and procedures; (f) deepening trade relations with foreign countries; and (g) subsidy management. Of late development of basic infrastructure like railways, roadways, ports, public transport, coal, and provision of essential utilities services like electricity & banking services have also been included in the discourse on economic reforms.

Investors usually use the most pervert and restricted definition of the term 'economic reform'. To them economic reform mostly means (a) measures that would allow unrestrained one way flow of foreign capital to Indian businesses and financial markets; and (b) tax exemptions for income from investment. Often investors also support contentions of businessmen to the extent it helps immediate rise in the value of their investments.

One often wonders how the following are examples of Economic Reforms and these reforms change what?

(i) Wal-Mart is allowed to own 75% of Pantaloon Retail.

(ii) The government stake in Coal India and ONGC is pared by 10% each.

(iii) The government stake in PSBs is reduced to 52%.

(iv) DDT and MAT are abolished and Short term capital gain is also exempted from income tax.

(v) Concessioners under various PPP projects are allowed to exit midway if projects become unviable.

(vi) All industrial and infrastructure projects are cleared by the regulators and authorities in 7days at a single window.

(vii) Government acquires the land for industrial and infrastructure use and give it to the businesses at half the stamp duty valuation rate.

(viii) All natural resources and mining activities are completely decontrolled.

(ix) Electricity tariffs and natural gas prices are allowed to be hiked by 10% every year.

(x) National Food Security Act is repealed.

In my view, these measures do not bring any fundamental change in the way businesses are done or government is run and hence do not qualify to be called "Reform".

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

"Kya lagta hai?"

Thought for the day

"The ruling ideas of each age have ever been the ideas of its ruling class."

- Karl Marx (German, 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Grok (v)

To understand thoroughly and intuitively.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Imagine the chaos if "No parking - no car" rule is implemented retroactively!

"Kya lagta hai?"

In a recent interview, Rahul Dravid famously commented that had he charged one rupee each time he was asked to answer the question "why did he declare the innings at Multan (2004) when Sachin was batting not out at 194?", he would be millionaire by now.

I can also say the same thing with some confidence if I consider how many time my friends ask the question "Kya lagta hai?" (how does the market look?)

I have no hesitation in admitting that I have been often far off the mark in predicting Nifty or Sensex targets over near term. Any hit in the bull's eye had been purely accidental and was never intended.

The only motivation for people who repeatedly pop the question perhaps is that more often I could see the direction of market move right. For example, only last month I suggested that market is in buy on dip mode and any short selling should be avoided for next two years. I was right on this count. Though I did not anticipate market moving above 8250 mark so rapidly.

Anyways, that is an occupational hazard everyone who has to answer "Kya lagta hai?" must live with.

Given the eagerness of many readers and people I interact frequently in the course of my quest for assessing the ground realities, I would like to address this question once again, before I take up more academic issues like reforms and budget expectations.

Near term outlook (3 months)

Near term direction of market is now a function of FII flows and budget expectations. With BoJ and ECB committed to keep the market flooded with liquidity, flows should not be a major problem. The technical overbought conditions may ease in next couple weeks. No surprises if Nifty tests 8970 in next three months. For mow, downside looks protected at 8120 to me.

Short term outlook (6-12 months)

Market may witness higher volatility and larger moves in next 6-12 months. While not much further negative is expected to occur on domestic front, global uncertainties may rise with deceleration in Europe, Japan, China and major commodity producing emerging markets. Save for a drastic global event like Lehman collapse (not improbable), Nifty should move closer to 9400 and may not fall below 7420 level. Strong buying and leveraging opportunities will emerge in to 7850-8000 Nifty range.

Mid-term outlook (12-24 months)

Expect Nifty to make a strong positive move over next two year with upper bound at 10800. The risk reward at present from this perspective is positive. Much sharper move could be expected in broader markets.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Reset the counter to zero

Thought for the day

"The English have all the material requisites for the revolution. What they lack is the spirit of generalization and revolutionary ardour."

- Karl Marx (German, 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Ardour (adj)

Great warmth of feeling; fervor; passion:

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

Ajay Maken: Erapalli Prasanna sent in to bat against Malcolm Marshall without any protective gears!

Reset the counter to zero

In past six months we heard Prime Minister giving inspirational speeches around the world. His diligence, zest and devotion to work are already part of folklore. He has taken noble initiatives like adoption of villages by elected representatives and cleanliness drive. More admirably, he has successfully skirted controversies. He has earned accolades from many adversaries and established remarkably friendly relations with heads of states of Japan, Britain, Australia, and US.

But could we say this about his team of ministers also? Besides random stories of punctuality and business friendliness, we have not heard much of a "Plan".

The business and investing community is waiting for the budget with great hopes. The expectations are running sky high leaving Nil margin for any disappointment.

However, if I were to assume that union budget prepared and presented by finance ministry is an aggregation of the plans and ideas of all the operating ministries of the government, I do not get a sense of any revolutionary ideas coming through on February 28th. A few tax concessions here and there, some procedural easing, and tons of rhetoric is all I would anticipate.

Please note that so far not many ministers of the Modi government have shown ability or willingness to take risk and make a fresh beginning. All their proposals, ideas and plans are incremental in nature and therefore not likely to usher any radical reforms.

Moreover, some of them appear constrained by their dogmatic and parochial mindset. This may rake in frequent and avoidable controversies and friction. Waste of valuable legislative time and energy due to this rhetorical approach cannot be ruled out.

Now consider this. the primary function of HRD ministry is to create and provide adequate infrastructure for development of human resources and create an enabling environment that facilitate equitable access to such infrastructure. It is not and should not be a function of the government to decide what children should study. The government should focus on providing facilities in schools to teach all relevant subjects and let the children decide what they want to study.

Instead of engaging in meaningless rhetorical debate about making Sanskrit and Yoga compulsory subject in schools, HRD minister should focus on improving the standard of teaching in schools so that the middle class parents could be saved from spending ridiculous amount of money on fee for "coaching classes".

Another major reform could be get over colonial mindset ("schools are factories to produce obedient servants for the crown") and eliminate the degree requirement for all jobs. Anyone who passes the pre-employment qualification test should be eligible for the job irrespective of his formal education.

In next few days, I would highlight my wish list of reforms in various that government should focus on.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Neutralize Jayadratha before Abhimanyu crosses the point of 'no-return'

Thought for the day

" The production of too many useful things results in too many useless people. "

- Karl Marx (German, 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Apocryphal (adj)

False; spurious

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Teaser for the day

I forcefully reject the system which makes it compulsory for my child to study something which she is not interested in.

Neutralize Jayadratha before Abhimanyu crosses the point of 'no-return'

In the epic 18 day war of Mahabharta 13th and 14th day are dedicated to the young Pandava prince Abhimanyu.

On 13th day, the Kaurava General Dronacharya laid out an impregnable 7 tier formation of his army, Chkravyuh, to capture the Pandava King Yudhishtra. He knew that on Pandava side only Arjuna and his charioteer Krishna knew the technique of penetrating and breaking this defense formation. He accordingly planned to distract them away from the battle field on early morning of 13th day and then capture the helpless Pandava King. He was unaware that the young prince Abhimanyu also knew how to break and enter the formation. He however did not how to exit.

The Pandavas planned that Abhimanyu should break open the gates of the Chkravyuh taking the mighty Bheema and other warriors along with him, who would then destroy the formation from within. The plan started off well, but the Kaurava's son-in-law Jayadratha using an old boon from Shiva stopped the entire army of Pandava at the gates broken by Abhimanyu, leaving the young prince fight his battle alone, all by himself. The prince fought valiantly but finally succumbed to injuries when a multitude of Kaurava commanders attacked him together.

On the 14th day, Arjuna, the father of Abhimanyu, took the revenge of his son's killing by beheading Jayadratha.

This story has been a inspirational tale for the millions of Indian children for ages. We have heard it time and again to learn the lessons of bravery, gallantry strategy, righteousness, importance of pregnancy period, and inevitability of death, etc.

While glancing through newspapers, flipping through new channels and surfing through social media last week, I was strongly reminded of this inspirational tale.

I find that PM Modi's situation today is same as that of Abhimanyu on 13th day noon. He has taken a big task on himself hoping that other warriors from BJP will help him. He has successfully broken the defense of opposition, valiantly penetrated in their territories, but finds himself alone there. His Arjuna (read Amit Shah) is busy fighting Tribal kings Soren and Abdullahs; and all other warriors have been blocked by Jayadratha from following him. I see the feudalistic idea of nationalism playing the role of Jayadratha in this case.

While the PM is moving around swiftly destroying old paradigms and raising new hopes, all his army men are being overwhelmed by the feudalistic idea of nationalism and following a dogmatic and in some cases regressive agenda, when the dispirited opposition forces are uniting to stop the juggernaut of Modi.

Why cannot we all accept that 1.25bn Indian are Sovereign Democratic Socialist Secular Republic. No minister or judge or politician can infringe upon our right to freedom and equity; whether it is studying Sanskrit, wearing jeans, or marrying intercaste. What the ministers may however do is to convey their likes and dislikes in a polite manner...more on this tomorrow