3rd Market Participant Survey

Thought for the day

"Men who are unhappy, like men who sleep badly, are always proud of the fact."

—Bertrand Russel (British, 1872-1970)

Word for the day

Hedonism (n)

Devotion to pleasure as a way of life, e.g., The later Roman emperors were notorious for their hedonism.

The doctrine that pleasure or happiness is the highest good.

Malice towards none

Will a uniform GST of 28% on movies mean no "tax free" movies post July 2017?

First random thought this morning

So many students appear to have scored near perfect scores in subjects like Political Science, History, Literature, Psychology in recently announced CBSE 12th class results.

To me this means that the system encourages only those students who are conformist. The examiners are trained to punish the students who like to differ and offer alternate views on history and political issues. This cannot be a good sign for a progressive society.

If I am HRD minister, I would assign 75% marks to debates, group discussions, and presentations in humanities, economics and business studies and 25% to written examination that tests writing skills, and basic understanding of broad principles. Pure science subjects, accounting, maths could remain as they are.

3rd Market Participant Survey

Last weekend, I repeated my annual survey of market participants, randomly selected from my phone contact list. This time I selected a larger sample (49) against 30odd on past occasions.

The objective was simple, viz., to assess the mood of the market. as usual, the people I called were a boring mix of investment managers, credit managers, corporate bankers, equity analysts, economist, wealth managers, insurance brokers, some seasoned investors and few corporate treasury managers. Each conversation lasted 10-25minutes.

As usual, I asked one simple question to all the people I had called – “what are you most excited about and what is bothering you most at this point in time?” Unlike the last time, the responses this time were more in unison. People mostly appeared hopeful but could not cite any concrete reasons for their optimism. Macro data was the only thing they could cite with conviction.

Admittedly, my sample suffers from inadequacies, but only 8 out of 49 people appeared confident about the direction of markets and economy even for next six months.

The key highlights of my impromptu conversation with market experts could be listed follows:

(a)   Considering that the markets have been turbulent for most of last week, all the people I called appeared surprisingly free and interested in talking to me. Most were interested in discussing politics, GST and a variety of individual stocks from midcap and small cap arena. It seemed that everyone is very much into the markets and invested to the capacity.

This, in my experience, usually occurs close to the market top of a market cycle.

(b)   There is an old saying in context of financial markets – “in good times few market participants have time for gaining knowledge; and in bad times few are inclined”. From my discussion it appeared that not many people are bothering to go below headlines and beyond front pages. Yet another sign of market topping.

(c)    An overwhelming 70% were most concerned about geopolitics, global politics, Fed meeting, and GST disruptions.

(d)   When specifically asked, opinion was vertically divided on the threat of China slow down. However, everyone agreed that should this exacerbate, Indian markets will sink into a deep bear phase. Surprisingly, most appeared bullish on INR.

(e)    32/49 felt that rates have already bottomed and may not fall from here in couple of years. No one was therefore bullish on recovery real estate. Though as a cautious footnote people exuded optimism over affordable housing.

(f)    Rural consumption and public investments are consensus favorite themes. No one is willing to care about the contrary data on these.

Is it a case of Cognitive dissonance?

Thought for the day

"Patriotism is the willingness to kill and be killed for trivial reasons."

—Bertrand Russel (British, 1872-1970)

Word for the day

Cantankerous (adj)

Disagreeable to deal with; contentious; peevish, e.g., A cantankerous, argumentative man.

Malice towards none

Where would you place the dignity of a human being, in your order of priority?

Would you like "if" and "but" to be used when it comes to your dignity?

First random thought this morning

According to various legends related to the medieval king Vikramaditya, his throne, studded with 32 statues of fairies, had two qualities: (a) the throne would allow only such people to sit on it who would possess qualities of a noble and strong human being; and (b) anyone who would sit on the throne would automatically acquire the qualities of a great king, e.g., valor, justice, magnanimity, foresight etc.

We the people of India continue to believe that the thrones of CM and PM etc possess similar qualities. We sincerely believe that any crook, anarchist, bigot, or criminal will become a noble king as soon as he/she sits on the throne!

Is it a case of Cognitive dissonance?

Under normal circumstances the economic behavior of a person should be a subset of his general behavior.

For example, the outlook about socio-political and geopolitical environment shall normally reflect in the business strategy.

If one believes that the disharmony, strife and stress is likely to rise in the society and politicians do not have an appropriate strategy to deal with social strife and unrest, then such person should normally—

(a)   not be investing in fresh capital in business;

(b)   should be looking to minimize leverage;

(c)    should be seeking higher protection on his life and property;

(d)   should be seeking to geographically diversify his assets by investing or hoarding in foreign assets; and

(e)    certainly look to minimize his exposure to the state.

Similarly, if an investor or businessman believes that geopolitical risks are rising to a specific jurisdiction, he should be diversifying his economic assets away from such jurisdiction.

Now applying this thought to the current Indian context, we get a mixed picture.

If we accept the trends in media, social media and popular political discourse at their par value - our country is facing heightened degree of social stress and unrest; and elevated level of geopolitical threats.

Politically, our country not stands vertically divided, with about 45% voters supporting the incumbent government and the parties supported by over 35% trying to stitch together a united opposition. Such polarization has occurred in Indian politics almost after 4 decades.

Total dominance of an individual (PM Modi) over the day to day executive functions in states comprising more than 65% of India's population shall also alarm an investor or businessman. While this dominance brings many positives, it also raises the specter of (a) erratic policy changes, e.g., abolition of currency; (b) probability of a full scale war (I would say from 0% under MMS to 5% under Modi, is a 5x jump in risk perception), etc.

Regardless of these trends and circumstances, we have seen that—

(a)   domestic investors have increased their stakes in risky assets (small and midcap securities) materially, while investment in gold has fallen;

(b)   the growth in insurance is not commensurate with the risk perception;

(c)    The exposure to government (deposits in PSU banks, participation in government projects, gold bonds etc.) has increased materially;

(d)   outward FDI has fallen dramatically and outward remittances have not shown any acceleration;

(e)    corporate debt stays at elevated level, and the ownership has moved away from banks to public......to continue next week

Political paradigm needs to change

Thought for the day

"It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this."

—Bertrand Russel (British, 1872-1970)

Word for the day

Ultracrepidarian (n/adj)

An ultracrepidarian person.

Noting or pertaining to a person who criticizes, judges, or gives advice outside the area of his or her expertise

Malice towards none

Regardless of the recent severe correction in broader markets, it appears that we shall see a huge wealth effect in Indian middle class as investment in equity grows and markets do well over next five years.

Real Estate and Travel will be two notable beneficiaries of this effect.

First random thought this morning

The market participants have this tendency to discover a trade from every event that is discussed on TV. From state elections to unrest in Kashmir. GST is a popular discussion these days, and there are thousands of "Research Reports" suggesting a trade on GST. Many of these reports have already declared the winners and losers from GST; much like the way it is done within hours of FM reading his budget speech every year.

In my view, market will adjust to GST in 3-4months. The readjustment will happen in a manner that it becomes even for most. Middle class will pay a little more and government will take home a little more. The disruption in unorganized businesses may happen in long term only.

No business might gain directly from GST. All tax savings may have to be passed to consumers. The gain could come from higher demand in future as prices stabilize and yearly tax fluctuation is controlled.

Political paradigm needs to change

Over past six weeks, I have discussed my ideas about the factors that could provide necessary escape velocity to the Indian Economic for transcending to a higher orbit.

We have seen some serious developments in some of these areas in past decade or so. In fact, the progress has accelerated materially in recent years. However, a lot of work still remains to be done; especially on qualitative front. The areas where we have seen material progress in quantitative terms, the quality seems to have remained mostly ignored.

For me it remains a matter of debate whether we want to develop economically on the mostly western parameters, or we should focus on our ethos and measure the economic development & growth in terms of dignity of human life, peace of mind, social harmony, motivation for scientific enquiry & spiritual pursuit, and commitment to universal brotherhood.

Nonetheless, even in terms of popular parameters, we have a long distance to cover before we think of transcending to a higher economic orbit. In particular, social equity and sustainability are two critical and popular concerns that have remained mostly unaddressed despite all the political rhetoric and shenanigans.

To conclude my monologue, I suggest that the present political structure of the country is not very conducive for a higher trajectory of economic growth and development either in terms of popular parameters or in terms of quintessential Indian ethos.

A study of the history of Indian politics would suggest that unlike western democracies only an abysmal minority of Indian voters are strongly committed to a political or socio-economic ideology.

The political discourse in India is usually dominated by contemporary issues and personalities. The economic issues raised during elections are mostly confined to the slogan of poverty alleviation. In recent times corruption has also become a popular electioneering slogan.

Perhaps, no political party seems to have taken issues of poverty alleviation or corruption seriously. Therefore no one has bothered even to outline a conceptual or ideological framework for solving these problems.

Ideologically, the Congress Party abandoned the most acceptable and perhaps most suitable Gandhian Socialism in favor of Nehruvian Socialism that was a poorly mixed concoction of Leninist central planning (central ownership and management of resources and businesses) and British colonial legacy (discretionary patronage to the faithful and loyal).

The model was certainly at cross-purpose with the constitutional federal structure. Poverty, poor governance and corruption were natural off-springs of this system.

BJP started with Deen Dayal Updhaya's Integral Humanism. However, in 1990s it adopted Gandhian Socialism (which is not too far moved from the Integral Humanism) as the principal doctrine.

The present leadership has presented a concoction of Integral Humanism and Laissez-faire model used by some developed economies principally USA.

Politically leadership preaches "Human Being" as the fulcrum of policy making. Whereas the executive is more focused on "Business", "Markets" and "Macroeconomics" as central themes. The conflict is for everyone to see. The consequence is that we seem to be moving in no direction.

The people at the left end of the spectrum exercised significant sway on the bottom of the pyramid in Indian society since independence. They controlled most of labor unions. Though divided between Marx, Lenin and Mao they still were the preferred choice of landless, oppressed and intelligentsia. There was a time when being poor, intelligent (economist, thinker, poet) or rebellious meant being communist.

The things however began to change in late 1980s post dismantling of USSR and the German wall. The Lenin and Marx were relegated to the history lessons. The economic reforms initiated in China under Deng Xiaoping's supremacy, further pushed back the traditional Marxists.

Insofar as the Lohiaites (socialist parties occupying the left of the center space in Indian politics) are concerned, they deserted both Lohia and his ideologue Gandhi as soon as they came into power. Degenerated into motley feudals, they mostly have no commitment to any economic idea and mostly follow the Congress Party's status quoits agenda.

The rise of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) from a massively popular anti-corruption civil society movement 4years back had given hope and raised expectations of people. This party had no ideological baggage and promised to address the problems as they exist, without any legacy concerns.

This party has also degenerated into a motley group of egotists, having no commitment to their raison d'être.

In my view, a continuation of the current state of quandary with respect to economic growth model is a major hindrance in our path to higher growth orbit.

I strongly believe that the inherent austerity, industriousness and enterprising skills of the Indian populace are sufficient to provide escape velocity for moving the Indian economy into higher orbit.

Limiting the role of government to developing and maintaining the institutional framework relating to law & order, sovereignty, external security & relations, municipal functions, inter-state relations and facilitating trade & commerce, may improve economic conditions much faster than otherwise.

PS: I have received a lot of comments and queries on this series of notes. I am preparing a consolidated response to all these comments and queries. If you have any more comments or queries, please mail me at investrekk@gmail.com.

Salvation lies in the temple

Salvation lies in the temple

I had written this earlier also. I am reiterating it, as I strongly believe that the roots of Indian economy shall remain weak if not reinforced and guided by our ethos - religion, traditions and culture.

Many years ago someone told me "believe in your strengths and weakness". I emphatically said, "I do!" He paused for a while and said calmly, "my son, knowing is different from believing. For example, you know that you will die someday. But do you really believe it?"

Years later, mingling with the crowd at the Haridwar Kumbh, I understood the meaning of what that person was trying to tell me many years ago.

We all, especially our politicians and social media activists, know the strengths and glorious past of our country. But do we really believe in that? In my firm opinion, no, we do not!

I firmly believe that religion is at the core of our society. The Indian political and economic paradigms therefore must be constructed around religion. (Anyone who has doubts, must carefully notice the thick red threads tied on the wrists of all the secular, socialist politicians and read the matrimonial advertisements of IT professionals.)

Even a cursory study of Indian history, whether critically proven or mythological, would suggest that the best economic and political periods in the history of the sub-continent were when a righteous king was at the helm and he protected and promoted the Religion. Conversely, the worst periods, economic and political, were those when some tyrant attempted to destroy the religious beliefs and knowledge.

Traditionally in India, education, research, arts, architecture, science, and the State itself, have all developed and prospered around religion. Religion is also intertwined with agriculture, which has been the primary profession.

By adopting secularism as a major social construct, especially since 1970s, the Indian State has unfortunately equated religion with bigotry. This has not only made religion a divisive (instead of bonding) force, but has also led to the degeneration of strong traditions of pursuing spiritual, scientific and material knowledge for the larger welfare of human kind.

In past four decades we have reached a stage where religion is used to evoke fear & violent passion in people's mind and manipulate them. Money & power, and not the knowledge & evolution, seem to have become the primary aim of religion. Ignorance and superstitions are destroying people's life. It is commonly seen that the gullible people borrow money to feed illiterate and dirty persons, whose only quality is their surname.

Intelligentsia and academics are scared to explore and propagate the tremendous wealth of knowledge stored in traditional scriptures for the fear of being labeled "communal and bigot". Politicians are scared to promote the traditions of knowledge seeking, scientific enquiry and spiritual evolution.

The consequences are that the entire nation bothers about winning one medal in any global supporting event but does never bother about winning a Nobel in mathematics, physics or medicine.

Start ups are good. But we need to believe that Apple, Facebook, Twitter and Amzon et. al. are outcome of a Society that promotes and cherishes knowledge seeking and freedom of thought. It is not the other way round.

In a country where most Magistrates and senior Judges seriously believe that God can be disparaged and insulted, something urgently needs to be done.

I have been hearing the phrase "21st century belongs to India" for past two decades. Many politicians and analysts have used this cliché to emphasize the tremendous economic opportunities that India could offer in next few decades, given its young demography. The list of investors and global States seeking strategic partnerships who have been excited by the potential is long and impressive. The list of investors and Statesmen who have been disappointed in past two decades is also not small.

The point to evaluate critically is whether India sans its core ethos is viable as an economic and strategic power house! In my view, it is definitely not.

Religion has been a major force in core Indian ethos. Traditionally it has been the influence of religion that has brought the concepts of scientific inquisition, righteousness, moral rectitude, social responsibility, environmental sustainability, debt management, HR management, and just & fair taxation, etc. in the trade and commerce.

Post Independence the State has been over focusing on micromanaging businesses and ignoring key social issues. This has weakened the core fabric of Indian society, inasmuch as that taking pride in our rich heritage has become synonym with bigotry for all - the so called "nationalist" who takes pride, the so called "secularist" who is too scared to take pride, and the so called "rationalist" who find nothing to take pride in Indian heritage.

Consequently, places of worship have degenerated from being center of learning & spiritual evolution to shelters for hatemongers, fearmongers, power seekers, and wealth hoarders. Many of these promote superstitions and block scientific inquiry to the detriment of society at large.

In my view, if we want to make this century belong to India, then Indian State—

(a)   should leave business completely to private enterprise;

(b)   play a much larger role in social awakening and create an enabling environment of mutual trust, self motivation, and compassion;

(c)    make the Temple (of course including Mosques, Churches, Monasteries, Gurudwaras, Mutts, Agiyaris, Derasars and others) play a larger evolutionary role in progress of the society, rather than continuing to de-generate further and stay a stumbling block in the path to socio-economic progress; (Taking their gold for managing current account deficit is not sufficient!)

The State must realize and accept that politicians and bureaucrats are naturally and seriously handicapped insofar as their understanding of business is concerned. They should just secure borders, maintain law & order and promote social harmony. So far they have focused on the former at the expense of the latter for the disastrous consequences.

Means are equally important

Thought for the day

"We are shaped by our thoughts; we become what we think."

—Buddha (Indian, 563-483BC)

Word for the day

Zugzwang (n)

A situation in chess where a player is limited to moves that cost pieces or have a damaging positional effect.

Malice towards none

Reema Lagoo: Millions of Indians secretly wanted a mother like her.

Will be missed for long.

First random thought this morning

The super success of Bahubali: the Conclusion may not be as good a news for Indian cinema industry, as it may sound at first instance.

One, a majority of movie watchers may have defined budget for entertainment. Spending more on Bahubali may mean cutting expense on other movie (s). Consequently, we might see many otherwise good movies may not doing that well on Box Office. So in net effect, we may be at par at the end of the day.

Secondly, It may trigger a race for making very high budget movies, many of which may actually not do as good, inflicting huge losses to the industry.

The positive is that we may certainly see some really world class movies being made in India.

Means are equally important

Economic growth which is not sustainable and equitable has little meaning, in my view. Such growth, whatever statistic shows, brings only misery and dissipation.

A harmonious and peaceful society enjoying a decent lifestyle should be the ultimate goal of economic growth and development. Otherwise, it has little meaning, regardless of the statistical achievements.

Swami Jagadatmananda in his famous work “Learn to Live” extolled the readers - the sincerity and honesty of the means to achieve a goal is equally important as the goal itself.

Mahatama Gandhi succinctly explained — “Independence begins at the bottom. A society must be built in which every village has to be self sustained and capable of managing its own affairs. It will be trained and prepared to perish in the attempt to defend itself against any onslaught from without. This does not exclude dependence on and willing help from neighbours or from the world. It will be a free and voluntary play of mutual forces. In this structure composed of innumerable villages, there will be ever widening, never ascending circles.

Growth will not be a pyramid with the apex sustained by the bottom. But it will be an oceanic circle whose center will be the individual. Therefore the outermost circumference will not wield power to crush the inner circle but will give strength to all within and derive its own strength from it.”

More popularly, in blockbuster Hindi movie DDLJ the hero Shahrukh Khan articulated this thought in a conversation with the mother of his beloved. When for the fear of her husband’s retribution, the mother advises the two lovers to elope – the hero tells her that the path suggested by her appears easy but it would lead to nowhere. He would rather prefer the path of courage, honesty and integrity which though arduous definitely leads to the desired goal.

Many may want to argue that it sounds utterly utopian in the current context. Some may yield that it is desirable but argue that we have traveled too far down the road we took post independence from British rule; and it is too late to go back and begin again.

In my view, this defeatist and fatigued attitude is unwarranted. What we need is a zero base discussion on the subject and solutions will emerge that would lead us to the desired goal of making 1.3bn people free, fearless and happy. An incremental approach howsoever sincere might not yield the desired results.

Even statistically, to propel the economic growth to much higher orbits, we need a socio-political organization for the country that is free, fearless and fair.

Social sector reforms, in my view, should be given top most priority in the economic growth and development agenda, rather than making it an aftereffect of the economic development.

Be with times

Thought for the day

"The foot feels the foot when it feels the ground."

—Buddha (Indian, 563-483BC)

Word for the day

Forgettery (n)

A faculty or facility for forgetting; faulty memory, e.g., A witness with a very convenient forgettery

Malice towards none

"Raid" sounds like a war cry.

Can't we use a more civilized term like "Inspected" or "Visited" to report visits of enforcement authorities at someone's place?

                     

First random thought this morning

Chinese manufacturers have studied the Indian traditions and markets very closely. That is why they have been able to penetrate all our festivals and benefit from it by selling God idols, Diwali lights and fire crackers, Holi colors, home decorations etc.

Patanjli Ayurveda is using the strategy. They go to the market, see what is selling and launch a seemingly cheaper version of all such products.

Emotions are evoked to hide the complete lack of innovation!

Be with times

The consistent "below potential" performance of Indian economy has been a matter of concern for both the investors (especially global investors) and the government. Though we have seen some instances of high growth (the best being 1994-97, 2005-09), such growth did never realistically appeared sustainable or consistent. In fact all such instances of sporadic high growth invariably led to (i) crumbling of already inadequate physical infrastructure; and (ii) heightened social strife as the system was not able to complement the burgeoning aspirations.

As already stated on multiple occasions, I have always been skeptical about the matrix commonly used to measure the potential growth, as it mostly ignores the qualitative aspects.

It is common knowledge that inadequate basic infrastructure, both social & physical and unacceptably large level of inequalities (socio-economic & regional) have been constricting the economic growth. For example, lack of adequate parking space (and not the affordability) may be limiting the demand for passenger cars. Poor health due to malnutrition may be impacting the productivity of labor. Inadequate port capacity, and not necessarily the demand, may be limiting the foreign trade.

A more serious limiting factor of our growth has been the poor quality of our human resources and the famous Jugaad mindset. The level of education & training in the country has been more than wanting. Moreover, the "quick fix" mindset for problem solving may have prevented finding and implementing sustainable and scalable solutions.

The ‘jugaad’ mindset has traditionally pushed back India and Indians tenaciously into survival mode, preventing development of a strong foundation for economic growth and prosperity.

The ‘jugaad’ mindset reflects poorly on almost every aspect of the socio-economic life in India. This has severely impacted the pursuit of excellence, a hall mark of Indian art, culture, engineering, architecture, industry till 19^th century, at least. Today, “Quality” is something India and Indians are not particularly known for globally.

As stated earlier also, occasionally I get the opportunity to work with some of the active participants in the Prime Minister Skill Development Scheme. After having witnessed the training process and assessing the training content & trainers' quality, I have mixed feelings.

During the course of my engagement with the program, I always get a feeling that this scheme might not be much different from MNREGA or its previous incarnation, viz., JLN Grameen Rozgar Yozna. The facilitator, the trainer & the trainee all appeared more interested in the immediate payout rather than the long term impact of the capacity building of the intended beneficiaries.

Without getting into the debate over issues of quality and utility of the training under the scheme, and potential corruption involved in that, I find the endeavor lacking conceptually.

I get a feeling that there is no primary driving force behind the skill development mission. It just addresses the status quo; no "forward looking" involved. Such a massive exercise, simply ignores the global trends in automation & robotics changing the economic landscape faster than ever.

The prospective trainees just go out in the market, search for the "Required" board hanging outside some work place and seek training so that they could get into that work place. There is no aptitude test of the trainee, demand assessment of the skill, or sustainability of the business that would employ that skill.

Imagine, half a million embroidery workers getting trained in three years only to find that automatic machines have replaced their skills; or a million dairy workers getting skill training only to discover that all dairy farms have been fully automated; or five million commercial drivers trained to find that vehicles needing a driver are no longer produced.

Arguably, the training improves workers' immediate employability. It may also aid the industry inasmuch as it augments the availability of skilled and semi skilled workers. The logical extension is productivity enhancement. A deeper study is required to establish these benefits.

But, my point is that should the skill building mission not have a larger vision. Should it be perpetuating the status quo or should it be forward looking?

And for god sake why do we need 100,000 yoga teachers, when a free app on everyone's smart phone can guide everyone interested in learning yoga. A Rs100 DVD can do the trick in schools. The required TV set and DVD player will cost just one salary of the yoga teacher.

"Skill India" and "Make in India" are noble ideas for human resource development. But we need to make sure that these do not end up as mere government schemes or political slogans.

If you ask me, I would focus on the following five skills in the initial phase of the mission:

(a)   Old age & child care: The changes in demography (more old people & more working couples), will keep this skill relevant. It is at least 50yr when robots become preferred worker to take up this job.

(b)   Religious preachers: Each individual will have their own problems and would need a unique personalized solution. Robots or youtube tutorials may not take up this job any time soon. (I am glad to note that MP government has taken an initiative in this direction)

(c)    Sportspersons: Despite a large number of youth hooking up to virtual gaming, physical sports remain as popular.

(d)   Artists & entertainers: Regardless of advancement in technology, painters, singers, sculptors, performers, moviemakers might still remain in demand.

(e)    Police and security personnel

Skill India for global economy

Thought for the day

"I never see what has been done; I only see what remains to be done."

—Budha (Indian, 563-483BC)

Word for the day

Luddite (n)

Someone who is opposed or resistant to new technologies or technological change.

Malice towards none

After three years, may we ask PM, what's the progress on his promise to establish special courts for cases involving politicians, so that all such cases are decided within a period of one year?

First random thought this morning

Integrating the solar energy equipment into normal building construction material could be a major innovation in the coming years. The work has already begun with roof tiles and window panes incorporating PV cells.

I have yet not heard someone taking a lead in India. Designer solar walls & roofing sheets, roof tiles, pillars & poles, car, bus & train roofs, doors and windows, pavement tiles - the opportunities are immense.

Government may want to spend some time and money on this also.

Skill India for global economy

Millions of reams have been used to write and publish about the demographic characteristics of India. Many stories, themes and strategies have been built around the young demographic profile of 1.25bn Indians.

Almost all these stories and strategies recognize the young Indian as a great opportunity - "Demographic dividend" for the Indian economy. A few of them have words of caution also. Failure to channelize this vast reservoir of energy into productive streams may not only dissipate the demographic dividend but also prove to be counterproductive in terms of widespread civil unrest and violent disruptions.

I have not come across any presentation that classifies this demographic profile as the solemn accountability and responsibility of India to the world.

The global community has always valued resource rich nations, expecting them to behave in a responsible manner to preserve the global order.

The capital rich western world has been expected to help the poor and starved of the world. The world looked forward to them to fund technological advancement, preservation of cultural heritage, assisting global growth and development. Even after taking full cognizance of the allegations of imperialism and suppression, I believe that financially rich communities have worked for the betterment of human life by funding technological innovation, life science research & development, productivity enhancement, and development assistance to the economically lagging world.

Similarly, nations rich in natural resources like minerals etc. have been expected to prospect and exploit these resources in optimum manner to assist the sustenance and growth of the global economy.

My point is that now since India possesses the largest pool of prospective workers for the world, should it not be responsibility of Indian government to prospect, grow, and develop this resource for the larger benefit of the global community.

This is even more pertinent in the context of the current global context. In places like Europe and Japan the root cause of the economic challenges could be traced to their aging demographic profile. China is also like to join the club soon. Under the circumstances it is the responsibility of India to provide educated, skilled and trained workforce to the global economy.

A number of research papers and surveys have shown that (a) Child and mother nutrition level in India is sub-standard consequently child mortality rates are poor; (b) higher and professional education standards are extremely poor consequently a large number of Indian graduates are unemployable even in routine jobs; (c) There is acute shortage of competent scientists to scale up research and development (R&T) activities to make Indian businesses competitive at global stage.

"Skill India" and "Make in India" are noble ideas for human resource development. But we need to make sure that these do not end up prospecting and developing only blue collar low skilled workers. In that case India will not only fail in its responsibility to global community but also slither back into the lower orbit of economic development...to continue

Believe what you know

Thought for the day

"Chaos is inherent in all compounded things. Strive on with diligence."

—Budha (Indian, 563-483BC)

Word for the day

Imprimatur (n)

Sanction or approval; support, e.g., our plan has the company president's imprimatur.

Malice towards none

Kapil Mishra (AAP) and Naseemuddin Siddiqui have added a new manifestation to the phrase Coming Out

First random thought this morning

I am not sure about how the pet project of PM Modi, viz., Make in India is doing in industrial sphere. But the hype created by it has certainly helped making a grand rally in Indian equity market.

Perhaps for the first time in more than two decades, domestic investors are more enthusiastic about Indian equities than foreign investors. Consequently, the market are moving higher despite intermittent selling by foreign investors.

Believe what you know

I have written on this many times earlier. Regardless, I find it important to reiterate my observations and thoughts on this once again.

I have been wandering through mesmerizing landscapes of India for past many years. The nomad hidden within me had coaxed me to many journeys. I would travel mostly aimlessly; enjoy various manifestations of the divine Mother Nature; acquaint myself with various people; appreciate their way of living; admire their culture; collect some souvenirs, recipes, anecdotes and come back into my cocoon- relaxed, happy and little wiser.

Nonetheless, in the process, I have developed a great appreciation for a variety of people - their varied customs & appearance - and usually felt comfortable even in a cross cultural environment. Subconsciously, I have invested significant efforts in identifying how other people are different from my own ways, rather than discovering the points of convergence. (If someone alleges that this is an act of racism – well I admit it certainly is.)

Most of these journeys have been fulfilling and contributed positively to my thoughts. However, one thing has always bothered me. Many times, I have been confronted with serious doubts about the “Indianness” of “India” and “Indians” as we understand these ideas in common discourse.

Deriving from my discussion on social, political and economic conditions with people of various regions, I doubt that the idea of “Indianness” perhaps only exists in films, army manuals, national holidays (26^th January and 15^th August), political speeches and patriotic songs. The compositions my children write describing “Unity in diversity” appear somewhat mythical to me.

I have discovered that after 70years of becoming a geopolitical union, India still remains merely the one. It is far from becoming a socio-economic union and even further from becoming a socio-political union.

I find a national approach to anything is conspicuous by its complete absence in general public discourse. People have strong dogmatic allegiance to their caste, religion, locality, region and state, generally in that order. I saw little evidence of any effort being invested by the system - local politicians, teachers, social workers, police or administrators - in developing an “Indian” identity of people.

The failure of national economic policy in recognizing this regional diversity is perhaps the primary reason for sub-optimal outcome of our efforts. No special efforts are needed to discover that most of the states, regions within states and communities within regions have diverse socio-economic behavior. Hence, their needs and requirements are also distinct. A blanket policy for all is therefore least likely to succeed in meeting its objectives.

The post 1947 political organization of the country on lingual basis appears to have outlived its utility. It is high time that our political and economic order should recognize this diversity and be re-designed.

In my view, an incremental approach (creating more states and districts) will not work. We need to begin from the beginning without any prejudice or reference....to continue