My take on popular market narratives
I find the following four narratives are presently dominating the financial market research in India: (1) Slowing economic growth India's economic growth hit a six-year low of 5% in 1QFY20. The consensus estimates indicate that the growth may further slip even to below 5% in 2QFY20. Some estimates are forecasting that the 2QFY20 GDP growth, to be announced next week, may be closer to 4% rather than 5%. The full year growth number, after accounting for base effect and recovery in 2HFY20, are also expected to remain closer to 5% rather than 6%. The slowdown in economic growth is widespread, encompassing all the segments and sectors of the economy. Agriculture, industry and services have all slowed down. Investment and consumption demand is multiyear low; and so are savings, investments and credit growth. The financial research is adequately capturing the slowdown since August when 1QFY20 GDP growth numbers were announced. However there are still differe...