Showing posts with label ecommerce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ecommerce. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Is the tide turning for E-commerce stocks?

The recent move in prices of some popular e-commerce stocks listed in India has caught the eye of the market participants. These stocks have sharply outperformed the benchmark Nifty50, Nifty IT and even NASDAQ in the past one month. Notably, these stocks have been sharply underperforming the markets for the past one year particularly. Most of these stocks have lost about two third of value from their respective all time high stock price levels. Many investors who had bought these stocks in the 2021-2022 frenzy have seen material erosion in their investment value. It is therefore pertinent to examine, from the individual investors’ viewpoint, whether the tide is turning for these companies; to assess whether they should stay invested, buy more or consider using the latest price rally to exit their positions.



Use your own parameters

One grave mistake small investors usually make while investing in the stock of a company, is to use the valuation matrices followed by specialized investors like private equity, venture capitalists, angel investors etc. or professional investors who invest on behalf of other investors.

Specialized investors evaluate a business idea in terms of potential for wider acceptability, scalability and eventual profitability. They mostly invest in early stages of business development and are usually not concerned with conventional valuation ratios like price to earnings etc. Failure of a business idea is as routine matter for them as the death of a patient for an oncologist. In fact, in their case a 25% success rate is considered a great performance. They do not fall in love with any business and are always on lookout for an exit, regardless of profit or loss.

Professional investors are mostly concerned with the relative performance of their portfolio in relation to the benchmark indices. For example, a fund manager would be considered very successful if his fund loses 10% in a year when the benchmark index has lost 15%. There is no opportunity cost of the money assigned to them for management.

In my view, small investors should use their own parameters to evaluate the businesses they want to invest in. Losing money should not be an option in their investment strategy. They should aim to earn at least more than the risk free return they can get in bank deposits and government securities.

Individual investors can earn from their stock portfolios in three ways:

1.    Dividends or any other form of regular cash flows.

It is important that the company makes sufficient profits; is able to convert these profits into cash (good working capital management) and maintains reasonable free cash flows.

2.    Stock prices rise in tandem with earnings growth.

Assess if the earnings growth is sustainable (not cyclical) and healthy (good ROCE).

3.    Stock prices rise due to acceptability of higher valuation benchmarks like price to earnings ratio (PE or EV/EBIDTA); price to book ratio (PB); price to earnings growth ratio (PEG) etc.

Remember, higher multiple to the benchmark valuation criteria should be supported by fundamental change in the operations and balance sheet; and not just by the broader market movement or irrational exuberance.

Assessing the latest move in ecommerce stocks

For making an investment decision, investors need to assess whether the recent move in ecommerce stocks is a broader market wide move or a response to company specific developments. In case of the latter, it needs to be evaluated whether it is sustainable in medium term or just a temporary phenomenon.

For example, post 3QFY23 result, One 97 Communication (PayTM) has seen multiple upgrades from various brokerages. Analysts seem to be excited about improvement in lending volumes, operational efficiency, prospects of substantial improvement in revenue growth in forthcoming quarters and profitability at ‘adjusted EBIDTA’ level in the current quarters. The analysts are projecting marginally positive EBIDTA in FY25; but no one is projecting positive PAT or free cash flows in the foreseeable future.

As per some recent media reports, telecom major Bharti Airtel, has proposed to merge its payment bank with the PayTM payment bank in a share swap deal; though the company has apparently denied any such proposal. PayTM had also announced a share buyback program in December. Ant group of China, one of the promoter entities, has decided to materially pare its stake in the company, offering a big revenue opportunity for brokers. It is to be evaluated whether these events have excited the analysts or they have holistically changed their outlook on the stock.

In the case of Zomato, the company has announced re-launch of its membership program (Zomato Gold), termination of services in a few cities and some other operational corrections. The analysts are not too excited about these changes and have not tweaked their estimates materially. Similar is the case with FSN E-Commerce.


Conclusion

In my view, the recent rise in ecommerce stocks could be more in the nature of a technical or generic move that may not necessarily be sustainable. The current valuations or the projected performance matrix of these companies provides little comfort from the individual investors’ viewpoint.

Besides, the regulatory environment for ecommerce business is still at a nascent stage and could have material implications for these businesses, similar to what we saw in the case of telecom and private mining during the past two decades. Investors need to factor in this risk also while deciding to invest in these businesses.

By nature, all these businesses are strong and highly scalable. If these companies sustain for 4-5years and deliver 30-40% revenue growth, these may become profitable and generate enough cash flows to fit in the conventional valuation matrices, without using manipulative terminologies like ‘Adjusted EBIDTA’, etc.

The investors will get ample opportunities to invest in these businesses in future, once they mature and the regulatory environment stabilizes. Till then leave it to the professional investors and focus on already matured businesses.


Thursday, May 20, 2021

Ecommerce sector in India – the fast changing landscape

A recent report published by The Indian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (IVCA) and Ernst & Young (EV) gives a fairly detailed view of Indian Ecommerce and Consumer Internet Sector in India. The report highlights how rapidly this sector has been growing in India in past few years. It also indicates towards the future of business and direction of growth. Obviously, the trend in India are part of a larger global trend and is greatly influenced by the global patterns.

The key highlights of the report could be noted as follows:

·         In 2020, E-commerce and Consumer Internet companies raised over US$8 billion in PE / VC capital spread over 400 deals, giving rise to 9 new unicorns. Edtech and hyperlocal segments led the investment activity, together accounting for over 40% of 2020 investments and witnessing 5x and 2x growth in funding value respectively over 2019. Fintech and social commerce continued to witness traction by investors as the pandemic significantly increased online transactions and interactions.

·         The Indian e-commerce segment is witnessing increased activity in small size investments, giving impetus to young start-ups. Over 75% of the PE/VC deals over the past two years have been small-ticket investments, indicating an increase in early stage investments year-on-year.

·         Majority of funding is towards building supply chain; expanding into new segments; global expansion; acquisition or consolidation; bring innovative product offerings to the market.

·         There is also a new class of angel investors comprising experienced professionals and successful entrepreneurs who are investing alongside institutional investors, which helps investee companies source talent, gain operational and strategic benefits.

EdTech – bridging the accessibility gap

·         Education industry in India has developed significantly over the last few years. Now, however, it faces challenges such as shortfall of 1 million teachers and unequal distribution of current teaching staff. Nearly 0.4 million schools have less than 50 students each and a maximum of only 2 teachers. The EdTech sector, equipped with technology and innovative models, is creating new learning methods and extending the accessibility and reach of education system via online channels.

·         Increase in digitization, rapid growth in the start-up ecosystem, the ever evolving consumer base and the COVID-19 situation has given the EdTech sector a huge growth opportunity. With millions of students made to sit at home, their urgency in shifting towards online education was obvious and this is what led to the required boost for this sector. The impact is visible not only from the rise in EdTech adoption but also from the positive investor thrust foreseeing a huge market opportunity in the sector.

·         EdTech vernacular language learning continues to be one of the biggest trends in the market as only 10%ofIndia'spopulationcanspeakEnglish

·         Startups are now providing platforms to teach, train and engage the working population.

·         Th EdTech market is expected to grow to US$3.5bn in 2022. The funding in this pace has increased from US$742mn in 2018 to US$1.8bn in 2020.

FinTech – Future of finance

·         As of March 2020, India and China accounted for the highest fintech adoption rate in the world's emerging market. India stood at an 87% adoption rate compared to the 64% global average.

·         UPI payments have skyrocketed with online banking becoming the new convention in the country. Around 1,000+ fintech start-ups in India spread across diverse areas such as digital lending, digital payments and wealth management are offering impressive emerging tech-based solutions. Investments industry category is also getting traction from users as retail investors are opting the new discount brokers for investments in IPOs, mutual funds and ETFs, etc.

·         Total investments in India’s FinTech sector crossed the US$10 billion mark over the last four and half years (CY16 to 1H20). Out of total 21 unicorns in India, around one-third are fintech companies.

Gaming – the world leader

·         India's gaming industry is valued at US$930 million and is ranked number one in the world. According to the All India Gaming Federation, online gaming grew 12% during the lockdown period, with a remarkable growth in online card games and digital sports.

·         Mobile gaming makes the largest share of the gaming market because of access to affordable smartphones growing at 15% YoY for the past five years in India, high-speed 4G internet penetration and the world’s lowest data tariffs. Together with the rise of mobile games, these factors feed into India’s youth having a growing appetite for content.

·         The online gaming boom triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has channelled hundreds of millions of dollars into Indian gaming startups. There is equal interest from financial institutions as well as strategic capital looking for partnerships and acquisitions in India.

·         Many home grown game developers are introducing made-in-India localized games such as Teen Patti and Rummy, leading to a rise of home grown games. Online gaming platform announced a launchpad to Indian gaming studios and developers who develop content with a special focus on Indian culture and folk tales.

B2C ecommerce – new retailing paradigm

·         The rapid increase in the number of internet users has attracted a number of new budding entrepreneurs to set up establishments by flooding the market with innovative pricing and stocking practices (marketplace vs inventory) while traditional players (brick and mortar stores) are catching up. Availability of numerous choices in terms of brands, discount offers, reduced delivery time, personalization, cash on delivery, digital payment infrastructure and easy returns have been major factors for development of the B2C e-commerce.

·         Companies are creating an omni-channel presence, blending online shopping and offline retail to overcome trust issues of customers. Leading e-tailers in India are planning to open brick-and-mortar stores. Digital B2C companies have also invested in creation of brands which attract young millennial crowd comprising of a majority of the online shoppers who tend to be more brand conscious. These companies are forming innovative product bundles aligned with the needs of customers and thus ensuring greater customer engagement.

·         Through its Digital India campaign, the Government of India is aiming to create a trillion-dollar online economy by 2025. India e-commerce is expected to reach US$99 billion by 2024, growing at a 27% CAGR over 2019-24, with grocery and fashion/apparel likely to be the key drivers of incremental growth. Online penetration of retail is expected to reach 10.7% by 2024, versus 4.7% in 2019, while online shoppers in India are expected to reach 220 million by 2025.

·         Pandemic has accelerated the e-commerce industry in India by a decade, revolutionizing the way brands operate, run, and grow their businesses, as well as how consumers choose to shop and pay. As per Nielsen India’s E-commerce consumer panel, there was a double rapid increase in average spend of online shoppers for various categories.

·         As per survey, 73% of Indian respondents are willing to spend more on convenience.29This is also evidenced by a rise in adoption of online shopping, especially in non-traditional categories such as groceries/medicines.

·         Ecommerce companies are collaborating with Fintech players to provide credit access to consumers for seamless shopping experience.

B2B ecommerce – adding efficiencies to supply chain

·         The traditional B2B commerce faces various challenges such as a long chain of intermediaries disrupting the supplychain capabilities and end-user experience, shortage of supply chain financing and lack of credit facility for online deals. This is leading to rise of eB2B which offers higher capital efficiencies and effective digital supply chains.

·         Rise in B2B startups has been attributed to the digital transformation of businesses including enterprises, financial institutions, hospitals, small businesses, government, etc. Brings to front the opportunity to bring efficiencies into the B2B supply chain via richer data and automated processes (payments, logistics).

·         Companies are adopting AI, Big Data and Blockchain technologies for real time tracking of orders and reduce the overall cost of operations.

LogiTech – optimizing supply chain

·         With growing retail and e-commerce sales, last-mile delivery is an especially attractive and underserved opportunity. B2B logistics startups are offering technologies and solutions to meet the needs of large supply chain and logistics organisations, from warehousing operations to demand forecasting, highlighting a wide scope for technological disruption.

·         Leading e-commerce companies are adopting third-party logistics to simplify supply chain solutions, ensure timely delivery of products and monitor issues regarding tracking, shipping, warehousing, and inventory worldwide.

·         Start-ups in this segment are developing solutions aimed at improving multiple facets such as productivity, transparency, visibility and operational and cost effectiveness. While majority of the start-ups in this space are aggregators of third-party truckers that provide full stack solutions to customers, a few of them own a portion of their fleet also.

·         Logistics tech start-ups found more customers as well as investors as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. These startups have helped the companies to reach out to customers even during the lockdowns.

·         As logistics tech grows, supply chain and logistics security is a top priority for enterprises. Few Indian startups are also working to promote blockchain adaption in the Indian logistics sector.

AgriTech – The new frontier

·         Contributing 16% to the GDP of India and offering employment to almost half the population, the agriculture sector continues to be loss-making for majority of farmers due to small landholdings and limited access to technology, credit and the market. In recent years, Agritech start-ups have come up aiming to fix these issues, leveraging technology and innovative models. In the last five years, India’s Agritech start-ups have been mushrooming in spaces such as crop advisory solutions, B2B Agri marketplaces, rural fintech enterprises and farm-to-fork platforms.

·         Agritech players are looking to own the end-to-end relationship with the farmer, right from input selection and delivery to crop management using precision agriculture to quality grading and procurement of produce. Players can also leverage data across these stages of the value chain to offer financial services to farmers. Agritech firms are also exploring integration with e-commerce platforms.

Hyperlocal –on demand delivery

·         The hyperlocal market in India has been driven by rising number of start-ups and on-demand delivery preference of the consumers. Collaboration with merchants and customers through a flexible application acts a business model for Hyperlocal firms. The market has witnessed significant competition in terms of emergence of various firms such as Dunzo, Grofers, Ubereats and others.

·         At present, only ~10% of the 700+ million internet users in India use online marketplaces.39This indicates a lack of trust and serves as a launchpad for hyperlocal e-commerce that encourages purchases from neighbourhood stroes. Technologies such as Geolocation and contextual targeting tools have effectively driven the e-commerce sector into hyper-localism. Hyperlocal players continue to use AI/ML capabilities to focus on solving key issues like route planning, estimating optimum time slots and overall servicing costs.

·         2020 witnessed US$1.6bn investment in hyperlocal sector.

·         E-commerce firms are focusing on a hyperlocal strategy, leveraging a network of thousands of small stores for faster deliveries across cities and extending their reach into smaller towns.

·         Start-ups in the hyperlocal space are increasingly leveraging digital technologies such as data science and machine learning to enhance customer experience, improve delivery logistics, managing inventory and forecasting demand.

Health Tech – Pandemic accelerates the adoption

·         In India, the doctor-to-patient ratio in the healthcare sector stands at 1:1596 (1:1400 WHO standard), which shows the enormous potential lying in front of HealthTech start-ups in the country.40 Currently, the healthcare situation comprises hospitals operating in its full capacity and overworked doctors. This is making it difficult for people to get primary care when needed. In this scenario, utilizing technology-based solutions such as telemedicine, AI/ML-based predictive and diagnostic analysis and digital health records can play a crucial role in speeding up India ‘s fragmented public healthcare system.

·         Home grown health tech start-ups led the development in Indian healthcare infrastructure in the telemedicine and online pharmacy wave. In terms of outlook, telemedicine is expected to remain at the top with a CAGR of 31% to reach a market of US$5.5b by 2025.

·         An increasing number of people are consulting with doctors remotely through consumer-facing solutions. Online Indian healthcare platform recorded 600% growth in online consultations between March and August 2020, and in December 2020 reported a 250% increase over a period of six months in its telemedicine subscription plans. Many physicians, including specialists have started to offer remote consultations.

·         The healthcare culture has started to transform from reactive to proactive or preventive wellness, as consumers become more aware. This has resulted in the growth of segments such as wearables, fitness at home, and health and wellness solutions.

·         India is in the nascent stage of adoption of digitizing patient records. Some large and specialty hospitals have also adopted the practice. Big data closely works on addressing multitude of challenges once patient health records are digitized, offering better patient care.

Social commerce – new rules of engagement

·         Rising penetration of smartphones and internet has brought millions of Indians online in recent years, turning social platforms into powerful distribution channels for many businesses, who are leapfrogging web and going digital with social-first models. E-commerce has been dominated by a few large players over the years, but the rise of social commerce is now paving the way for a more distributed model that is built on community, connection and trust. Social-led models will help redefine the landscape for smaller players over the next few years.

·         Social commerce platforms are emerging as facilitators to ease the process of transition and growth for India’s offline retail businesses amid the coronavirus lockdown.

·         Companies are leveraging reselling model where the user can browse products listed by sellers on the app, and market them in their community as resellers, using WhatsApp or other platforms, adding their profit margin to the product.

·         Facebook Shops are free to setup. When setting up a Shop, businesses can choose the products they want to feature from their catalogue, and can customise the look of their shop with a cover image and accent colours. As consumers, Shops can be found on businesses’ Facebook pages and Instagram profiles.

·         There is an increasing trend of leveraging messaging apps such as WhatsApp for e-commerce. Over 1 million sellers are using WhatsApp for business in the country.

Travel & hospitality – local global

·         With the rise in technology, travel and hospitality industry has embraced e-commerce. Companies are increasingly leveraging digital technologies such as AI, ML, AR/VR, IoT and Big Data analytics to enhance customer experience by providing personalised and customised travel services.

·         The global travel and tourism industry is estimated to lose US$2.7 tn in 2020 with 100 million jobs at risk. While India travel and tourism industry is facing an overall loss of US$16.7 B with up to 50 million jobs at risk. India’s aviation sector is anticipating at an estimated loss of US$11.2 B and its hotel industry has estimated loss of US$6.3 B for 2020. But with domestic flights resuming in a staggered manner, online travel aggregators (OTA) in India are seeing a 30-40% rise in demand with some selling more than 5,000 tickets a day. However, flight cancellations are affecting revenues of OTAs.

Travel & hospitality providers are venturing into other segments to cope with the changing market dynamics and almost non-existent demand for their traditional services to maintain their revenue stream.

Chartered flights (MakeMyTrip), Covid beds (Oyo rooms), Covid testing of passengers (Thomos Cook) are some examples.

 

·         Contactless check-in has become the new norm of hospitality and guests are willing to skip front desk for check-in and other room related queries. These contactless technologies are not only offering ease and safety to consumers but also helping hoteliers' weather operational disruptions.

Payments and wallets – banks in pocket

·         While India has traditionally been a cash-driven economy, increasing digital penetration, consistent growth in retail electronic payment systems, such as National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT), mobile banking, and development of payment acceptance infrastructure have resulted in a significant uptick in digital payment transactions.

·         Leading digital wallet providers are transforming into integrated financial services solution providers by adding services such as lending, insurtech, wealthtech along with EDC terminals and more.

·         With the success of Alexa, financial institutions and FinTechsare in the process of making voice payment the next big thing. Already, many financial institutions in lending are using voice technology through bots to serve the customers.

·         Until now most of the payment technologies were weaved around smartphone. But face recognition payment technology is designed to make payments without mobile phones.

·         As digital payments go mainstream, financial institutions are straining hard to continuously reduce their exposure to financial crimes. Robotic Process Automation (RPA) will continue to impact migration activities, data security & governance, and compliance management, especially in the wake of the recent and ensuing PSU bank consolidations

From small investors view point, many of these startups that have attained reasonable scale may be getting ready for their IPOs. Retail investors may get a chance to participate in this sunrise sector that has so far been limited to large private equity players and venture capitalists. This would obviously be a high risk high reward investment product. Since the businesses are primarily technology driven, the chances of redundancy would always be present.


Thursday, October 31, 2019

Key takeaway from Diwali sales

This Diwali season was seen as critical from the economy as well as financial markets view points. Most businesses observers, analysts and policy makers were keenly watching the festival consumer demand to assess the future direction of the economy and markets. The policy makers were especially interested in assessing the impact of the various stimulating and corrective measures taken in past few months to boost demand.
It will take some time to know the real picture. However, what we know from the news snippets and anecdotal evidence collected from the market visits and speaking to the traders and shop keepers in past few days, the season has been a mixed one.
The following key trends may be noteworthy in this context.
1.    The move from the unorganized to the organized retailing may be happening at much faster pace than earlier estimated. The experience is somewhat similar to the mobile telephoney - where almost everyone waited to see the growth till it actually happened. Even the telecom companies were surprised by the depth and width of the subscriber growth.
In retail trade also, defying the logistic challenges, the e-commerce companies have penetrated the hinterlands with great force. Amazon and Flipkart recorded a rise of 33% in Diwali sales this year. Amazon achieved 50% market share in merchandise, while Flipkart had 73% in appliances. Amazon reportedly delivered goods to 99.4% of India's pin codes of which 88% customers were from non metros. (see here)
Future group reported that "Frequent shoppers were outnumbered by those seen as more conservative and typically don’t splurge as much." (see here)
Most of the small unorganized retailers even in posh metro markets bemoaned a dull festive season.
From stock market view point this is perhaps good news. Though overall economic impact would be negative during the transitory phase as a large majority of marginal businessmen go out of business.
2.    Gold sale was estimated to be lower by up to 40% from last year (see here). However, the anecdotal evidence indicates to a huge shift from the smaller jewelers to the large corporate jewelry brands. From the stock market view point therefore this could be a good news as the listed players like Titan, PC jewelers etc may report decent growth despite poor overall gold demand.
Lower preference for gold is a good news for economy (lower CAD) and markets (better growth for the large corporate jewelry retailers.
3.    Auto dealers reported decent sales. Some car dealers indicated that inventory that has piled up has diminished considerably and discount numbers have also eased considerably in past 10 days or so. The Chairman of Mahindra group was reported as claiming double digit sales growth during Diwali. (see here)
4.    Dry fruits and confectionary sales were reportedly muted as corporates scaled down gift values considerably. This may not have any negative implications for the stock markets as no major player is listed. However it may again be good news for economy (lower imports and hence lower CAD) and lower A&P spend of corporate and therefore better profitability (though only marginally).
From these organized retail and revival in auto demand could be derived as two investment themes to further work on.