Showing posts with label fintech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fintech. Show all posts

Saturday, November 6, 2021

Some glimpses of changing credit landscape in India

Household now largest borrowers

As per the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India, the share of personal loans in total outstanding bank credit in India has grown to 27%. For the first time, the share of personal credit in the total bank credit is higher than the credit to the industry. In past 12 months, the share of personal credit has increased by 2%, from 25% in September 2020 to 27% in September 2021; whereas the share of industrial credit has declined by 1% from 27% to 26% over the same period. The share of credit to agriculture sector has remained mostly stagnant at around 12%.


The trend could be explained,
inter alia, through the following three key factors:

(a)   Rising institutionalization of the personal credit due to accelerating financial inclusion and digitalization of financial transactions.

(b)   Decline in share of NBFCs in the personal credit, due to a variety of reasons.

(c)    Deleveraging of balance sheets by large corporate, due to better business conditions (primarily commodities), resolution of debt, slowdown in new capex, and better working capital management.

Personal loans growing at fastest pace

During the 12months period (September 2020 to September 2021) the personal loan category recorded the highest growth.

·         Personal loans grew 12.1% in this period, almost at twice the rate of growth in total bank credit. In the previous 12month period, the growth in personal credit was 9.2%.

·         The credit to industry grew at anemic 2.5%, though better than the previous period growth of 0.4%.

·         The growth in credit to service sector, which suffered most of the brunt of the Covid-19 pandemic induced lockdown, declined sharply to 0.8% from the 9.2% recorded in the previous period.

·         Agriculture sector credit growth remained healthy at 9.9%, as compared to 6.2% in the previous period.


Change in borrowing mix of households reflects the impact of pandemic

The change in personal loan mix during past 12months clearly indicates towards the impact of pandemic on the household finances. It highlights how the pandemic changed the circumstances, affordability and priorities of the Indian households.

Traditionally, Indian households borrowed to create assets (house, vehicle), build skills (education) or meet emergencies (medical loans). However, in past 12months vehicle, education and housing loans growth witnessed contraction.

The loans for consumer durable witnessed sharp growth. Anecdotal evidence suggests that communication devices (smartphone, laptops etc.) and household appliances may have topped the priorities of the locked up Indian households, as against borrowing for vehicles and higher education.

Loan against jewelry has been the fastest growing category. One reason for this could be the acceleration in the formalization and institutionalization of gold loan business. However, when we juxtapose it with the contraction in the credit card outstanding, it appears that poor credit worthiness (due to unemployment, poor business etc.) and rising stress on household finances due to pandemic might have also been responsible for the higher growth in loan against jewelry.


Institutionalization of farm credit

The total bank credit to the farm sector is about Rs16trln. Out of this, pre-harvest (only farmers) credit is Rs8trln, post-harvest is Rs5trln and agri infrastructure funding is Rs3trln.

Overall, agri credit industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of ~10+% over the next decade, as the government’s focus on materially raising the size of agri economy yields results.

In past two decades the structure of agriculture financing has witnessed remarkable changes. From mere 19% in FY01, the share of direct institutional credit to the agriculture has grown to 43% of the nominal agriculture GDP in FY21.



As per India DataHub study, “Over the past three decades, direct institutional credit (Commercial Banks and Cooperatives) to agriculture has increased more than fifty times – from Rs300bn in 1991 to Rs15,000bn as of 2021. The output from the agriculture sector has increased by less than half of this (23x) during this period. Thus, in both absolute and relative (to output) flow of institutional credit to agriculture has increased massively. Outstanding Institutional credit is now at over 40% of agriculture GDP, more than two times of what it was in the 1990s.”



FinTech gaining ground in credit market

In an industry, traditionally dominated by moneylenders, banks and cooperatives, the online lending applications (FinTech) are fast gaining ground.

As per “A review of India’s Credit Ecosystem”, a report published jointly by Experian Services India (P) Limited and Invest India –

“Fintechs have carved out their own market share by targeting customers who were earlier not eligible to borrow due to lack of credit history and lack of collateral. Improved credit evaluation processes and digitization has allowed new-age players to lend to this segment cost-effectively. This brought a whole new section of customers into the lending industry and this customer segment is far from being saturated as of now. Many financial technology companies and NBFCs have emerged solely to enable lending to the previously unbanked population, creating a niche in the industry.”

Fintechs embarked on their journey by focusing on onboarding ‘credit invisibles’ and the ‘sub-prime’ population, mostly younger generation by leveraging alternative data and advanced analytics. Customizing product portfolio as per customer’s needs and focus on small ticket size loans across the board (personal loans (PL), business loans (BL), consumer durable (CD) etc.) has proven to be game changers in driving their top line growth.”

Fintechs are targeting newly employed section of population and are also more attractive for the this younger strata with their technology driven approach. Fintechs’ lending to “New to Credit” consumers is highest at 36%.


 

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Ecommerce sector in India – the fast changing landscape

A recent report published by The Indian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (IVCA) and Ernst & Young (EV) gives a fairly detailed view of Indian Ecommerce and Consumer Internet Sector in India. The report highlights how rapidly this sector has been growing in India in past few years. It also indicates towards the future of business and direction of growth. Obviously, the trend in India are part of a larger global trend and is greatly influenced by the global patterns.

The key highlights of the report could be noted as follows:

·         In 2020, E-commerce and Consumer Internet companies raised over US$8 billion in PE / VC capital spread over 400 deals, giving rise to 9 new unicorns. Edtech and hyperlocal segments led the investment activity, together accounting for over 40% of 2020 investments and witnessing 5x and 2x growth in funding value respectively over 2019. Fintech and social commerce continued to witness traction by investors as the pandemic significantly increased online transactions and interactions.

·         The Indian e-commerce segment is witnessing increased activity in small size investments, giving impetus to young start-ups. Over 75% of the PE/VC deals over the past two years have been small-ticket investments, indicating an increase in early stage investments year-on-year.

·         Majority of funding is towards building supply chain; expanding into new segments; global expansion; acquisition or consolidation; bring innovative product offerings to the market.

·         There is also a new class of angel investors comprising experienced professionals and successful entrepreneurs who are investing alongside institutional investors, which helps investee companies source talent, gain operational and strategic benefits.

EdTech – bridging the accessibility gap

·         Education industry in India has developed significantly over the last few years. Now, however, it faces challenges such as shortfall of 1 million teachers and unequal distribution of current teaching staff. Nearly 0.4 million schools have less than 50 students each and a maximum of only 2 teachers. The EdTech sector, equipped with technology and innovative models, is creating new learning methods and extending the accessibility and reach of education system via online channels.

·         Increase in digitization, rapid growth in the start-up ecosystem, the ever evolving consumer base and the COVID-19 situation has given the EdTech sector a huge growth opportunity. With millions of students made to sit at home, their urgency in shifting towards online education was obvious and this is what led to the required boost for this sector. The impact is visible not only from the rise in EdTech adoption but also from the positive investor thrust foreseeing a huge market opportunity in the sector.

·         EdTech vernacular language learning continues to be one of the biggest trends in the market as only 10%ofIndia'spopulationcanspeakEnglish

·         Startups are now providing platforms to teach, train and engage the working population.

·         Th EdTech market is expected to grow to US$3.5bn in 2022. The funding in this pace has increased from US$742mn in 2018 to US$1.8bn in 2020.

FinTech – Future of finance

·         As of March 2020, India and China accounted for the highest fintech adoption rate in the world's emerging market. India stood at an 87% adoption rate compared to the 64% global average.

·         UPI payments have skyrocketed with online banking becoming the new convention in the country. Around 1,000+ fintech start-ups in India spread across diverse areas such as digital lending, digital payments and wealth management are offering impressive emerging tech-based solutions. Investments industry category is also getting traction from users as retail investors are opting the new discount brokers for investments in IPOs, mutual funds and ETFs, etc.

·         Total investments in India’s FinTech sector crossed the US$10 billion mark over the last four and half years (CY16 to 1H20). Out of total 21 unicorns in India, around one-third are fintech companies.

Gaming – the world leader

·         India's gaming industry is valued at US$930 million and is ranked number one in the world. According to the All India Gaming Federation, online gaming grew 12% during the lockdown period, with a remarkable growth in online card games and digital sports.

·         Mobile gaming makes the largest share of the gaming market because of access to affordable smartphones growing at 15% YoY for the past five years in India, high-speed 4G internet penetration and the world’s lowest data tariffs. Together with the rise of mobile games, these factors feed into India’s youth having a growing appetite for content.

·         The online gaming boom triggered by the coronavirus pandemic has channelled hundreds of millions of dollars into Indian gaming startups. There is equal interest from financial institutions as well as strategic capital looking for partnerships and acquisitions in India.

·         Many home grown game developers are introducing made-in-India localized games such as Teen Patti and Rummy, leading to a rise of home grown games. Online gaming platform announced a launchpad to Indian gaming studios and developers who develop content with a special focus on Indian culture and folk tales.

B2C ecommerce – new retailing paradigm

·         The rapid increase in the number of internet users has attracted a number of new budding entrepreneurs to set up establishments by flooding the market with innovative pricing and stocking practices (marketplace vs inventory) while traditional players (brick and mortar stores) are catching up. Availability of numerous choices in terms of brands, discount offers, reduced delivery time, personalization, cash on delivery, digital payment infrastructure and easy returns have been major factors for development of the B2C e-commerce.

·         Companies are creating an omni-channel presence, blending online shopping and offline retail to overcome trust issues of customers. Leading e-tailers in India are planning to open brick-and-mortar stores. Digital B2C companies have also invested in creation of brands which attract young millennial crowd comprising of a majority of the online shoppers who tend to be more brand conscious. These companies are forming innovative product bundles aligned with the needs of customers and thus ensuring greater customer engagement.

·         Through its Digital India campaign, the Government of India is aiming to create a trillion-dollar online economy by 2025. India e-commerce is expected to reach US$99 billion by 2024, growing at a 27% CAGR over 2019-24, with grocery and fashion/apparel likely to be the key drivers of incremental growth. Online penetration of retail is expected to reach 10.7% by 2024, versus 4.7% in 2019, while online shoppers in India are expected to reach 220 million by 2025.

·         Pandemic has accelerated the e-commerce industry in India by a decade, revolutionizing the way brands operate, run, and grow their businesses, as well as how consumers choose to shop and pay. As per Nielsen India’s E-commerce consumer panel, there was a double rapid increase in average spend of online shoppers for various categories.

·         As per survey, 73% of Indian respondents are willing to spend more on convenience.29This is also evidenced by a rise in adoption of online shopping, especially in non-traditional categories such as groceries/medicines.

·         Ecommerce companies are collaborating with Fintech players to provide credit access to consumers for seamless shopping experience.

B2B ecommerce – adding efficiencies to supply chain

·         The traditional B2B commerce faces various challenges such as a long chain of intermediaries disrupting the supplychain capabilities and end-user experience, shortage of supply chain financing and lack of credit facility for online deals. This is leading to rise of eB2B which offers higher capital efficiencies and effective digital supply chains.

·         Rise in B2B startups has been attributed to the digital transformation of businesses including enterprises, financial institutions, hospitals, small businesses, government, etc. Brings to front the opportunity to bring efficiencies into the B2B supply chain via richer data and automated processes (payments, logistics).

·         Companies are adopting AI, Big Data and Blockchain technologies for real time tracking of orders and reduce the overall cost of operations.

LogiTech – optimizing supply chain

·         With growing retail and e-commerce sales, last-mile delivery is an especially attractive and underserved opportunity. B2B logistics startups are offering technologies and solutions to meet the needs of large supply chain and logistics organisations, from warehousing operations to demand forecasting, highlighting a wide scope for technological disruption.

·         Leading e-commerce companies are adopting third-party logistics to simplify supply chain solutions, ensure timely delivery of products and monitor issues regarding tracking, shipping, warehousing, and inventory worldwide.

·         Start-ups in this segment are developing solutions aimed at improving multiple facets such as productivity, transparency, visibility and operational and cost effectiveness. While majority of the start-ups in this space are aggregators of third-party truckers that provide full stack solutions to customers, a few of them own a portion of their fleet also.

·         Logistics tech start-ups found more customers as well as investors as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. These startups have helped the companies to reach out to customers even during the lockdowns.

·         As logistics tech grows, supply chain and logistics security is a top priority for enterprises. Few Indian startups are also working to promote blockchain adaption in the Indian logistics sector.

AgriTech – The new frontier

·         Contributing 16% to the GDP of India and offering employment to almost half the population, the agriculture sector continues to be loss-making for majority of farmers due to small landholdings and limited access to technology, credit and the market. In recent years, Agritech start-ups have come up aiming to fix these issues, leveraging technology and innovative models. In the last five years, India’s Agritech start-ups have been mushrooming in spaces such as crop advisory solutions, B2B Agri marketplaces, rural fintech enterprises and farm-to-fork platforms.

·         Agritech players are looking to own the end-to-end relationship with the farmer, right from input selection and delivery to crop management using precision agriculture to quality grading and procurement of produce. Players can also leverage data across these stages of the value chain to offer financial services to farmers. Agritech firms are also exploring integration with e-commerce platforms.

Hyperlocal –on demand delivery

·         The hyperlocal market in India has been driven by rising number of start-ups and on-demand delivery preference of the consumers. Collaboration with merchants and customers through a flexible application acts a business model for Hyperlocal firms. The market has witnessed significant competition in terms of emergence of various firms such as Dunzo, Grofers, Ubereats and others.

·         At present, only ~10% of the 700+ million internet users in India use online marketplaces.39This indicates a lack of trust and serves as a launchpad for hyperlocal e-commerce that encourages purchases from neighbourhood stroes. Technologies such as Geolocation and contextual targeting tools have effectively driven the e-commerce sector into hyper-localism. Hyperlocal players continue to use AI/ML capabilities to focus on solving key issues like route planning, estimating optimum time slots and overall servicing costs.

·         2020 witnessed US$1.6bn investment in hyperlocal sector.

·         E-commerce firms are focusing on a hyperlocal strategy, leveraging a network of thousands of small stores for faster deliveries across cities and extending their reach into smaller towns.

·         Start-ups in the hyperlocal space are increasingly leveraging digital technologies such as data science and machine learning to enhance customer experience, improve delivery logistics, managing inventory and forecasting demand.

Health Tech – Pandemic accelerates the adoption

·         In India, the doctor-to-patient ratio in the healthcare sector stands at 1:1596 (1:1400 WHO standard), which shows the enormous potential lying in front of HealthTech start-ups in the country.40 Currently, the healthcare situation comprises hospitals operating in its full capacity and overworked doctors. This is making it difficult for people to get primary care when needed. In this scenario, utilizing technology-based solutions such as telemedicine, AI/ML-based predictive and diagnostic analysis and digital health records can play a crucial role in speeding up India ‘s fragmented public healthcare system.

·         Home grown health tech start-ups led the development in Indian healthcare infrastructure in the telemedicine and online pharmacy wave. In terms of outlook, telemedicine is expected to remain at the top with a CAGR of 31% to reach a market of US$5.5b by 2025.

·         An increasing number of people are consulting with doctors remotely through consumer-facing solutions. Online Indian healthcare platform recorded 600% growth in online consultations between March and August 2020, and in December 2020 reported a 250% increase over a period of six months in its telemedicine subscription plans. Many physicians, including specialists have started to offer remote consultations.

·         The healthcare culture has started to transform from reactive to proactive or preventive wellness, as consumers become more aware. This has resulted in the growth of segments such as wearables, fitness at home, and health and wellness solutions.

·         India is in the nascent stage of adoption of digitizing patient records. Some large and specialty hospitals have also adopted the practice. Big data closely works on addressing multitude of challenges once patient health records are digitized, offering better patient care.

Social commerce – new rules of engagement

·         Rising penetration of smartphones and internet has brought millions of Indians online in recent years, turning social platforms into powerful distribution channels for many businesses, who are leapfrogging web and going digital with social-first models. E-commerce has been dominated by a few large players over the years, but the rise of social commerce is now paving the way for a more distributed model that is built on community, connection and trust. Social-led models will help redefine the landscape for smaller players over the next few years.

·         Social commerce platforms are emerging as facilitators to ease the process of transition and growth for India’s offline retail businesses amid the coronavirus lockdown.

·         Companies are leveraging reselling model where the user can browse products listed by sellers on the app, and market them in their community as resellers, using WhatsApp or other platforms, adding their profit margin to the product.

·         Facebook Shops are free to setup. When setting up a Shop, businesses can choose the products they want to feature from their catalogue, and can customise the look of their shop with a cover image and accent colours. As consumers, Shops can be found on businesses’ Facebook pages and Instagram profiles.

·         There is an increasing trend of leveraging messaging apps such as WhatsApp for e-commerce. Over 1 million sellers are using WhatsApp for business in the country.

Travel & hospitality – local global

·         With the rise in technology, travel and hospitality industry has embraced e-commerce. Companies are increasingly leveraging digital technologies such as AI, ML, AR/VR, IoT and Big Data analytics to enhance customer experience by providing personalised and customised travel services.

·         The global travel and tourism industry is estimated to lose US$2.7 tn in 2020 with 100 million jobs at risk. While India travel and tourism industry is facing an overall loss of US$16.7 B with up to 50 million jobs at risk. India’s aviation sector is anticipating at an estimated loss of US$11.2 B and its hotel industry has estimated loss of US$6.3 B for 2020. But with domestic flights resuming in a staggered manner, online travel aggregators (OTA) in India are seeing a 30-40% rise in demand with some selling more than 5,000 tickets a day. However, flight cancellations are affecting revenues of OTAs.

Travel & hospitality providers are venturing into other segments to cope with the changing market dynamics and almost non-existent demand for their traditional services to maintain their revenue stream.

Chartered flights (MakeMyTrip), Covid beds (Oyo rooms), Covid testing of passengers (Thomos Cook) are some examples.

 

·         Contactless check-in has become the new norm of hospitality and guests are willing to skip front desk for check-in and other room related queries. These contactless technologies are not only offering ease and safety to consumers but also helping hoteliers' weather operational disruptions.

Payments and wallets – banks in pocket

·         While India has traditionally been a cash-driven economy, increasing digital penetration, consistent growth in retail electronic payment systems, such as National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT), mobile banking, and development of payment acceptance infrastructure have resulted in a significant uptick in digital payment transactions.

·         Leading digital wallet providers are transforming into integrated financial services solution providers by adding services such as lending, insurtech, wealthtech along with EDC terminals and more.

·         With the success of Alexa, financial institutions and FinTechsare in the process of making voice payment the next big thing. Already, many financial institutions in lending are using voice technology through bots to serve the customers.

·         Until now most of the payment technologies were weaved around smartphone. But face recognition payment technology is designed to make payments without mobile phones.

·         As digital payments go mainstream, financial institutions are straining hard to continuously reduce their exposure to financial crimes. Robotic Process Automation (RPA) will continue to impact migration activities, data security & governance, and compliance management, especially in the wake of the recent and ensuing PSU bank consolidations

From small investors view point, many of these startups that have attained reasonable scale may be getting ready for their IPOs. Retail investors may get a chance to participate in this sunrise sector that has so far been limited to large private equity players and venture capitalists. This would obviously be a high risk high reward investment product. Since the businesses are primarily technology driven, the chances of redundancy would always be present.