Do it yourself

Last weekend I received an innocuous looking post facto graph from a friend. The chart depicted how the Chinese companies have gained prominence during the first two decades of the twenty-first century. Evidently, these developments have already occurred and are there for everyone to see and feel. There is nothing about this that can be changed. The graph depicts that the number of Chinese companies in the Fortune Global 500 list have grown from 10 in 2000 to 121 in 2020, a 12.1x rise in two decades. Three Chinese companies now figure in the list of top 10 global companies. The new 111 Chinese entrants in the coveted list mostly replaced the companies from the US (55) and Japan (54). Besides the US and Japan, companies from the major European economies (Britain, Germany and France) have also fallen in their global rankings. The top 10 ranked global companies are an interesting mix. The list is topped by two retailers ( Walmart , 1, USA; Amazon , 2, USA). Besides, it comprises – one...

As per the latest reported data (7 January 2022), RBI was holding a total of US$632.7bn in non INR assets. This includes US$569.3bn foreign currencies, US$39bn gold, US$19.1bn SDRs and US$5.2 reserve position in the IMF. Considering our emotional attachment to gold, I would like to categorize it as emergency reserve only. So effectively, RBI has US$569.3bn worth of foreign currency to meet the regular demand. Considering an expected trade deficit of US$200-220bn for FY23, we appear adequately covered for monetary tightening by global central bankers and consequent unwind of USD carry trade potentially leading to FPI outflows. Assuming, that the global central bank monetary tightening is able to reign the runaway inflation, and India inflation remains at midpoint of RBI target range, we may end up with 2-2.5% INR depreciation for the year, implying end FY23 exchange rate (INR/USD) of 75 to 75.5; of course, not a matter of much concern. Some recent news headlines have drawn atten...

In its latest Annual General Meeting, Mr. Mukesh Ambani, Chairman of Reliance Industries announced an ambitious plan for setting up new energy business. The plan includes building four Giga factories to produce photovoltaic modules, advanced energy storage batteries, electrolyzers for the production of green hydrogen; and fuel cells for converting hydrogen into motive and stationary power. The announcement has added more energy to the already popular trade in alternative and new energy. Even though the media narrative has been more focused on the renewable energy and electric mobility, from stock market perspective, the most popular trade has perhaps been in the sugar manufacturers who have set up decent ethanol manufacturing capacities in past one decade or so. The Government of India had announced an ambitious ethanol blending program (EBP) in 2018, through a National Policy on Biofuels-2018 (NPB-2018) . The program included interest rate subvention for setting up molasses and gr...

Mukesh Dhirubhai Ambani becoming the sixth richest person on the planet earth has been adequately highlighted in Indian media, much more than his younger sibling Anil Dhirubhai Ambani pleading state of total penury in a UK court few weeks ago. Twenty years ago, Wipro Chairman Azim Hasham Premji was rated as the fifth richest person on Earth and the Richest in India. At that time, he could have exchanged his 75% holding in Wipro worth US$47bn, for 100% ownership each in Reliance Industry, Hindustan lever and Infosys Technologies, and still keep enough change to survive for two generations. Having committed most of his wealth to charity, today Prem Ji is known for his generosity and philanthropic pursuits and not for his wealth. This is however not the point of discussion here. Many readers have asked for my views on Reliance Industries, especially in light of the impressive growth agenda presented in a grand digital show, watched by millions. I would like to share my th...