Like most other Indian urban households, we receive multiple ‘deliveries’ every day. These deliveries are mostly made by ecommerce platforms (Ecom) like Amazon and Myntra; quick commerce platforms (Qcom) like Blinkit and Zepto; food delivery platforms like Zomato and Swiggy; pharmaceutical deliveries like 1mg and Medplus, courier companies like Blue Dart and DTDC, and local delivery services like Borzo (WeFast) and Porter. Besides, our regular grocery, vegetable, and milk vendors also make regular deliveries.
I have been observing men making these deliveries closely for the past five years. I have noticed a gradual but definite shift taking place in the profile of the deliveryman visiting my house.
In the earlier days, these were usually young semi-skilled boys, who were doing this part-time job while acquiring some skill that would get them a regular job. For most of them this was their first or second job. None of them would like it to be their regular job in the next 2-3 years. They were working 6-8 hours a day.
Now-a-days, however, it is common to find middle aged, educated, skilled men making deliveries. Many of these people have experience of working in the organized sectors. I have even met some delivery men who have worked as accounting clerks, mechanics, salesmen etc. They lost their jobs due to downsizing or closure of businesses they were working for. In some cases, they had to take a break due to health reasons but could not find a job while recovery.
A Large proportion of the ‘deliverymen’ seems to have accepted this as their regular occupation. They work 10-14 hours a day. Only last week my domestic help asked “if I know some ‘contractor’ who provides deliverymen to various platforms?” She wants her 18yr old son to join the occupation. I am scared to think whether this occupation is already becoming aspirational for several poor households. Add the “carless drivers” of the app-based taxis to this universe of ‘deliverymen’ and you would find the problem to be much larger.
This trend of hiring “part-time” or “contract workers” is not limited to unskilled jobs like making deliveries. It is becoming more commonplace in skilled and even high-skilled white-collar jobs; and even public administrative jobs. Many public departments are preferring to hire contract workers in place of regular employees. Cost optimization and flexibility are the two primary reasons offered for this practice.
The latest Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS), released on 16 August 2024 by the National Statistical office (NSO), only 47.4% of the workforce in India comprises regular wage/salaried employees. The rest were classified as own account workers, self-employed, helper in household enterprise and casual labour.
Reportedly, in the US also, “full-time employment dropped by 1 million workers in August on a year-over year basis, marking the 7th consecutive monthly decline. Since the June 2023 peak, full-time job count in the US has fallen by a whopping 1.5 million. Meanwhile, part-time employment rose by 1 million year-over-year in August. Additionally, the number of permanent job losers jumped by 324,000 year-over-year, to 2.5 million, the highest since November 2021. This was the 16th straight month of part-time job gains, the longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.”
In my discussions with my several contacts, I noticed that almost everyone has taken note of this trend. However, the acceptance for the fact that we are fast becoming a ‘non-salaried” economy is still very low. Even at the policymaker level recognition for the changing paradigm is far below the desired level.
In my view, there needs to be an urgent and accelerated acceptance of this trend and preparation to deal with the consequences. While it may be already little late for the policymakers, the investors and businesses might still have 5-7 years to adapt to the new paradigm.
Some of the consequences of the emerging employment status paradigm could be as follows:
· The demand for rented accommodation may rise much faster than the owned accommodation, as the contract or part time workers refuse to commit to a place or city.
· The tendency to marry and have a stable family life may weaken. The population growth rates may fall much faster than presently anticipated. The businesses created around children (healthcare, drinks, toys, books, education, stationary, clothes, footwear etc.) may witness marked slowdown.
· The demand for public services, like transport, health and education may rise faster as affordability of workers diminishes.
· The credit worthiness of part-time workers may be lower; and the tendency to default may witness a rise. The household savings may decline further. The business models and lending practices of banks and NBFCs may need a substantial change.
· Workers’ mobility may rise. This may cause frequent law & order problems as conflicts between the local and outside workers increase.
· The working age of Indian youth may reduce drastically. The ‘deliverymen’ - working 10-14 hours a day; 365 days a year; carrying heavy bags on their shoulders; - will wear out much sooner than a normal worker. They will retire hurt and sick in their 40s rather than 60s, having no skill, savings, family or social security. Managing these retired force could be a much tougher task than solving the issue of pension for the retired government employees and soldiers.
I will be grateful to receive any feedback from readers relating to the policy endeavor made in this regards, besides according legal recognition to the gig workers in The Code on Social Security, 2020, (CSS2020) and recruiting temporary workers in the armed forces (Agniveer scheme)
