Do it yourself

 I had an opportunity to e-meet the promoter of a decent sized enterprise yesterday. His company manufactures some auto parts mostly for replacement market. The business of this company had been doing extremely well for past more than a decade, before it hit a small bump last year. It recovered from the fumble in two quarters and was about to regain its pre Covid trajectory in 1QFY22. The intense second wave has however derailed the business from recovery path. The promoter now expects the business to normalize not before summer of 2022. Even for that he is not very confident. I have known this gentleman for past 17years. It was for the first time I found the gleam in his eyes missing. A driblet of sweat on the temple was also rather conspicuous. He is not only worried about his business. The worries are in fact emanating from a variety of factors. For example, ·          Having lost couple of senior family members to Covid, the family is...

India is presently passing through the worst phase of the pandemic. The scenes at hospitals, crematoriums, pathological labs, and in homes are heart-wrenching. Many young lives are being lost for want of basic facilities like medical oxygen and ventilators. Distressed and anguished citizens are begging for help, but to little avail. It is distressing to find that there is no dearth of people who are trying to take advantage of this calamity by hoarding and black marketing essential drugs and medical equipment. The worst part is to find that many highly educated and influential people, who have developed symptoms of the disease, not getting themselves tested or not disclosing it to their contacts; and thereby accelerating the spread. Many people with symptoms have traveled in public transport risking the lives of co-passengers and adding to the alacrity of spread. Last year we all had seen disturbing visuals of pandemic aftermath from developed countries like US, UK, Spain, Italy, e...

 With each report announcing further success in the endeavors of developing an effective vaccine for SRAS-CoV-2 (previously termed Covid-19) infection, the level of anxiety amongst the stock market traders and investors is rising disproportionately. Most of them appear anxious to find the best trade for the “normalization”. The fact that in past two years, the returns on investment for most of the investors and traders have been sub optimal, is further fuelling the anxiety. Most of them appear to believe that first mover will make extra ordinary gains, while the slow movers will miss this once in a decade opportunity. Recent discussion with market participants in India, US and Singapore, indicates that they are exploring a variety of ideas that could give extra ordinary return in next one year. Some of the common ideas include technology, healthcare and reflation. Logistics also appears to be fast emerging as one of the favored ideas. The following are the arguments I have hear...

Last week, I had shared latest update relating to my investment strategy. I had highlighted that we may be standing at the threshold of a new economic and market cycle. The global economics, politics and markets may change rather dramatically in next couple of years, in the aftermath of the current crisis. I have therefore decided to reorient my investment portfolio to suit what I believe could be the shape of the new world. ( see here ) Many readers have expressed surprise on my decision to (a) raise the weight of equities in my asset allocation; especially at this point in time when almost everything appears uncertain and future is shrouded in thick black clouds; and (b) prefer Neutral currencies like Cryptos over USD and Gold. I would like to address the inquisitions of the readers as follows. It is pertinent to note that I have been expecting a paradigm shift in the global markets for past 5 years now ( for example see here ). Especially in past 5 years there have ...

After initial round of denial and complacency, the global markets seems to be waking up to the grave threat that the spread of coronavirus poses to the global economy and therefore global markets. As more foreigners emerge out of China mainland, the information opaqueness is diminishing insofar as the official Chinese claims and the popular perception of the spread of virus is concerned. It appears that the impact of virus far more serious initially estimated by global community or communicated by Chinese officials. In past two weeks the reports have suggested that the coronavirus has invaded many more territories across Asia and Europe. Japan and South East Asia Countries appear to be worst impacted. Japan and South Korea have raised the threat alert level to the highest that allows the government to lock down cities and businesses. Italy has also reportedly shut down schools and crowded market places and stadiums till further notice. WHO has feared that the vir...