I travelled to the Agra, Aligarh and Bareilly divisions of the state of Uttar Pradesh last week. Holi being the principal festival of these regions, it was the peak season of festivities in these areas. Since, in the past two years, the Covid pandemic impacted the festivities to a great extent; this year’s celebrations were particularly enthusiastic. A good sugarcane and bumper wheat crop added to the farmers’ delight. Poor realization for potatoes was a little dampener.
The elections to the state assembly have just
concluded and the new government is yet to be formed. Both the principal
political parties, the BJP and SP, have performed well in the elections. So the
political leaders and workers were also seen celebrating with fervor.
Broadly, the aerial socio-economic view of the
region appeared quite ebullient and promising.
There are few observations that I would like to
share with the readers. These observations are relevant for understanding some
popular political narratives, and more important, understanding the (un)
relationship of politics and economics.
I have been travelling to Bareilly from Delhi
for the past 25years, at least 4 times a year. In late 1990s, the distance of
260kms used to take 8 to 9 hours by road and more than 7 hrs by train in normal
course. The highway was a single road (without a divider) and the train route
was not electric. We had to pass through cities like Hapur, Moradabd, and
Rampur. Crossing Ghaziabad district was a nightmare even till a few years ago.
There were five railway crossings on the way. On a bad day, each crossing could
take 30-40 minutes to cross. Travelling in daytime would mean 30-60minutes of
time to cross Hapur and Moradabad cities. On the way we had to cross the river
Ganges at Garh Mukteshwar, which had a narrow bridge, barely sufficient for two
buses to cross each other. One overladen truck, bullock cart or tractor trolley
would mean one hour of jam. A vehicle breaking down on the bridge would mean 6
to 8hrs of traffic jam and a 30-50km detour through nearby villages using
unpaved roads. In the Bareilly city 5-6hrs of power cut was considered normal.
On bad days the power cuts would last 10-12hrs.
The highway being a single road, it was a
constant struggle to save one-self from road transport bus drivers, who for
some unknown reason were always in a tearing hurry, and enjoyed scaring the
traffic coming from the opposite side. The trucks were mostly overloaded with
sugar cane, fodder, food grains or perilously hanging steel rods. Almost every
person driving a personal vehicle had the James Bond like driving skills, for
dodging the cattle freely crossing the roads; transport buses swirling like
missiles; bullock carts strolling in the middle of the road; and big potholes
in the middle of the roads. Driving at night was particularly challenging.
Things started improving towards the end of the
millennium. Construction of Moradabad bypass road obviated the need to cross
the crowded city. An Inland Container Depot (ICD) in Moradabad was set up and
the project to widen the highways to 4 lanes was undertaken. Bridges were made
on numerous intersections on the highway. Then Hapur bypass was constructed.
The rail route was electrified to increase the speed of trains. Then the
highway was further widened to 6 lanes and rail over bridges were built over
all railway crossings. A new wider bridge was built on Ganges to avert traffic
jams. The Delhi Merrut Expressway has made the drive on Delhi-Hapur section a
breeze.
The journey now is much safer and faster. The
travel time now is about 5hrs, both by road and train. More importantly, this
5hr is highly predictable since there are very low chances of a traffic jam on
railways crossing or bridge.
The power availability has improved
significantly in past 25years with completion of plants like Rosa (1200MW),
Anpara units 6 to 9 (2200MW). The availability of power also increased from the
Tehri hydro project. The distribution of power was privatized in the region,
resulting in better distribution infrastructure (fewer breakdowns) and lower
losses.
Similarly, the Noida Agra expressway, Agra
Lucknow expressway, Lucknow Faizabad Expressway and numerous other highways and
infrastructure projects have been undertaken and completed in the state in the
past 25years.
The most significant development project in the
state has been the focus on girl education. Significant monetary and other
incentives have been provided for the primary, secondary and higher education
of girls, especially the girls from minority and backward communities. This has
resulted in lower net fertility rate in the state and better labour
participation in past one decade. We saw some glimpses of this in 2011 census
data. The 2022 census data will definitely show a bigger picture.
It is pertinent to note that past 25yrs have
seen BJP (1996-2002 and 2017-2022); SP (2002-2007 and 2012-2017); BSP
(2002-2007) governments in the state and NDA (1998-2004 and 2014-2022) UPA
(2004-2014) and United Front (1996-1998) governments at the center. The
infrastructure improvement has been a consistent quotient during all regimes.
No particular government can claim exclusivity in this context.
More than the highways, the roads built under
the PMGSY scheme started by the NDA-1 government and consistently pursued by
the subsequent governments have made a larger impact on the life of the
predominantly rural population of the state. Because these roads have brought
schools and hospitals within reach of the rural population.
The point I am trying to make is that the
development in India has been a gradual process. It has gained momentum in the past
25yrs with increased participation of the private sector, improved regulatory
and legal framework, and advancement in technology. For example, the change in
land acquisition compensation policy (2013) has played a major role in faster
execution of highway projects. Availability of better equipment, improved
availability of essential raw material like steel and cement, and use of
geospatial technology for mapping and monitoring etc. have also made execution
efficient. The political parties have the right to lay claim on exclusivity of
development in their regime, but the people, especially voters and investors
must learn to believe what they see and experience, rather than what the
political leaders tell them in their speeches.
The trajectory of economic development in India
in present days is mostly a function of demand for infrastructure, availability
of risk capital, and technology advancement. The political party in power
usually has a minor role in the entire development process.
There are many things that have not changed in
the state or worsened with each change in the regime. I would leave that
discussion for some other time.
