Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Lessons from FY20 Rout



The new financial year is beginning on a rather somber note. The auspicious festivals of Navratri, Ram Navami, and Easter are also failing to lift the spirits of the people locked down in their homes. Offices, factories and shops are shut. No one has rushed to complete the usual year end compliances. Naturally, the financial markets are also despondent.
As an investors, my first instinct is to complete erase the memories of FY20. For an overwhelming majority of market participants, it has been a difficult and mostly forgettable year. Not only equity but the debt portfolios have also caused similar degree of pain for many investors. The fact that the previous year (FY19) had not been great either for most investors, exacerbates the concerns even further.
However, the student of markets in me is telling me not only to remember this year but rewind it every year to avoid mistakes that would have been made in past couple of years. The following lessons in particular must be learnt, memorized and practiced without fail.
1.    Define your investment objectives and goals clearly. Success in investment endeavor depends largely on clarity in investment objectives.
Factors like growth, yield, income, risk, are dynamic and will keep on changing every year. Investors must periodically re-evaluate investment objectives and requirements.
2.    Forming a solid investment team is cardinal to successful investment strategy.  Carefully assess the honesty, competence, and objective of those giving you investment advice and services, e.g., investment advisor, Portfolio Manager, Mutual Fund Manager, stock broker,
3.    Know: Why, How much, When, and Where to invest.
(i)    Would you like to do the same business, as the company you are investing in is doing or planning to do, if you had sufficient financial resources?
(ii)   Never invest in companies whose business you do not understand.  Investment is much more than the roll of dice.  Impulsive decisions are the ones you often regret.
(iii)            Invest only that money which is free of obligations.  Never borrow money for investing.
4.    Remain informed about how your investments are performing.  Be alert for news, legal changes, policy changes, and economic trends that could have a material impact on your investments.
5.    Unreasonable expectations about return on investments may deprive you of even reasonable return.
6.    Remember, you are not an institution, and never try to act like one. Do not calculate NAV of your portfolio daily, weekly or monthly. You are under no obligation to report your NAV to anyone.
7.    Assess the success of investment strategy from the total returns you made on your entire portfolio. There will certainly few outliers. Do not celebrate or regret these outliers too much.
8.    You cannot and need not invest in all good companies.  Select those, which suit best to meet your investment objective, are fundamentally strong and suit your investment plan.
9.    Remember the basic principle of economics, money does not grow on trees, and in the long run all good businesses will attain more or less the same level of profitability.
10.  Try to use market movements to your advantage, only in businesses which you otherwise find good for investment. Never buy something just because it has fallen 70-80% from its last high price.

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