Some food for thought
"I say you must not win an unjust case by oaths."
—Aeschylus (Greek Poet, 525BC-456BC)
Word for the day
Salvific (adj)
Of or relating to redemptive power.
First thought this morning
A recent episode of social outburst involving the veteran actor
Naseeruddin Shah has once again brought to the fore something that is bothering
the Indian Society rather intensely. On the right side of the debate people are
arguing for supremacy of Nation State while the left side people are seeking
supremacy of individual liberties over everything.
I somehow find this whole debate totally redundant. From the
anecdotal evidence I collect from my day to day life, I fund that these days
personal liberty is highly overrated even as a desire for people.
Most decisions of life are voluntarily and enthusiastically
delegated to a variety of anonymous algorithms (Apps). The worst, the decision
to choose the appropriate algorithm that will take decision for us, is also
been delegated to some other algorithm. For example, the Star ratings by Google
play store decide which food delivery App we will use to guide us what food to
order from where and when (On Wednesday PizzaHut offeres 1 for 1 free deal on
medium size Pizza!).
I find the following decisions commonly outsourced.
(a) Where to study
and what to study.
(b) Whom to marry.
What vehicle to buy.
(c) Where to eat,
what to eat.
(d) Where to go, when
to go and which route to take to reach there.
(e) Which movie to
watch. Which book to read. Which writer, actor and song to like.
(f) Where to work.
Where to live
(g) Where to invest,
when to invest, how to invest.
(h) Where to go for
vacation, how to go there, where to stay, what to see, where to eat and what to
eat, where to shop, what to shop.
(i) Whom to vote.
(j) How to evaluate
performance of our children, parents, elected representatives, family members.
(k) Which doctor to
consult for our problems. (Also sometime to discover what all physical and
mental ailments we may be suffering from).
(l) Which social
cause to support or oppose. What agitates me, and on what makes me laugh.
(m) How much I love my
spouse or companion.
(n) Whom to hire for
a job.
(o) How do I look
and How do I feel today.
(p) Which algorithm
(App) to use for selecting the algorithm (App) to which I will delegate
decision making for me.
Insofar as the concept of Nation State is concerned, it lost
relevance with the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in August 1945.
Taking a short trip down memory lane
If you are wondering about suddenly what's happening in global
markets, a short trip down memory lane would be helpful.
If you are bewildered that —
How the market that had just started to price the Fed tightening
through 2020, is suddenly turning to a "cut" by Fed. US bond yields
which went over 3.25% and looked set to test 4% mark, are suddenly looking excessive
even at 2.7%.
How the discourse in India is changing from a sustained rate
hike to pause to possible cut
How the Brent crude that appeared set to top US$100/bbl after
OPEC cuts and Russia OPEC deal, suddenly appears toppish even at US$55/bbl.
Please rewind to 2014, to find that —
Lot of people believed that USA virtually had recession in 2015.
US10yr yields were below 2% in May 2013 before the taper tantrum pushed these
to over 3% by January 2014. The yields fell to low of 1.5% in 2016, and
bottomed with presidential elections. And when all the experts were forecasting
a further fall in yields and oil, we actually had a massive rally in stocks and
yields.
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