Some food for thought
"The less government interferes with private pursuits, the
better for general prosperity."
—Martin Van Buren (American President, 1782-1862)
Word for the day
Postiche (n)
An imitation or substitute.
Pretense; sham
First thought this morning
The socio-economic developments in last five decades are
distinctly characterized by reduction in size and faster speed.
Families have shrinked in size; so has the size of homes,
appliances, data storage devices, and distances in terms of time, etc. Kings
are no longer large hearted and magnanimous, like in good old times.
The speed of automobile, airplanes, rockets, camera shutters,
voice & data travelling through cables, changes in ideologies &
thoughts, execution of transactions, is increasing with each passing day.
Children are maturing faster. Young are aging faster. Athletes are
running/swimming faster.
Most purists argue that nothing New is being created now. The
focus is entirely on enhancing whatever exists on the planet. We are
discovering new methods of doing the old things. And in this rush to reach
nowhere, the survival is increasingly dependent on how quickly one gets
conditioned to the new standard of speed and size. Those who fail the test are
doomed to live a life of discontent, or even depression in many cases.
In some sense we may be rushing back to the pre stone age, where
the whole effort of human race was merely to survive. Any innovation was
perhaps just a discovery by chance. The current political discourse
(disparaging, vindictive, parochial) and social narrative (blasphemy,
intolerance, etc.) is all a reflection of this race to the bottom.
As the innovation has dried up, the classical symbols of human
evolution - Shakespeare, Beethoven, Picasso, Mozart, Tolstoy, Keats, Homer,
Surdas, Kalidas, Tulsidas, Kabir, Jaydev, Tansen, Tagore, Jaishankar Prasad,
Premchand, Ravishankar, et. al. — have all been appropriated by the elite. The
commoners are left at the mercy of non-human like Siri and Google.
No one is writing Ramayan and Geet Govind these days. The
messengers/incarnations of God are not descending on earth to preach Gita,
Koran or Bible.
So what is the way forward? Will there be a course correction? or
we go all the way down to complete the circle of time and then begin to evolve
again?
Chart of the day
In spirit of Christmas
2018 has been a tough year for Indian equity investors. YTD flat
Nifty may be failing in capturing the pain the investors must have experienced
during the course of the year. From a jittery February-March to ecstatic
July-August to traumatic September-October, it has been a roller coaster only
few daredevils would have enjoyed. December so far is indicating a despondent
end to the saga.
The market experts are however drawing comfort from the poor
performance of Indian equities, in true Christmas spirit. Hoping that the
markets might have already suffered their worst, and 2019 could be a positive
year.
FY19 may end as fifth consecutive year of earnings
disappointment. The expectations for earnings in FY20 are expectedly running
high. Currently the consensus seems to be placed around 25% earnings growth in
FY20, over a low base.
It is customary for experts to forecast their respective targets
for the benchmark indices 12months hence, regardless of the accuracy or
otherwise of such forecasts in the past.
I usually disregard these customary forecasts made in the spirit
of Diwali or Christmas. Nonetheless, I do draw a matrix of likely scenarios, to
draw my investment strategy and formulate my asset allocation.
I shall share my outlook and strategy for 2019 with readers next
week.
My equity strategy would be based on the following matrix.
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