Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Discontented, unhappy but not distressed

Some food for thought
"Stupidity is also a gift of God, but one mustn't misuse it."
—Pope John Paul II (Polish Saint, 1920-2005)
Word for the day
Branstorm (v)
To conduct a campaign or speaking tour in rural areas by making brief stops in many small towns.
 
First random thought this morning
कर्मण्यकर्म य: पश्येदकर्मणि च कर्म य: |
स बुद्धिमान्मनुष्येषु स युक्त: कृत्स्नकर्मकृत् ||
"Those who see action in inaction and inaction in action are truly wise amongst humans. Although performing all kinds of actions, they are yogis and masters of all their actions." (Chapter 4, Verse 18, Shri Bhagwat Gita)
The Lord himself guided the humanity — a wise person, whose actions are burnt by the fire of knowledge, escapes from karma by keeping his actions free from desires and attachments, remaining contended and taking refuge in nothing.
Performing actions without expectations and without worrying about the outcome, frees the doer from bondage of Karma.
By living the life spontaneously, with unflinching trust in the Lord, one demolishes all boundaries setting himself/herself free from fear, insecurity, dependence, compulsion, and conditioning to the environment.
This is plain conventional wisdom, on which most Indian, especially majority Hindus, are raised upon.
Many in the position of power often claim to be devout Hindus and frequently quote from scriptures. Those in principal opposition parties have also claimed taking up the study of scriptures.
But do we see any reflection of what the Lord himself guided, in their personal, social, professional or political conduct. At least I cannot. To me, their actions appear invariably driven by parochial self interest.
How would this situation get corrected?
Chart of the day

 

Discontented, unhappy but not distressed

Last week we travelled through the states of Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh in central India. Both these states are going into assembly election next 6-8weeks. Both the states are being governed by BJP since 2003. These states are considered crucial for the BJP's 2019 campaign, as presently BJP holds 37 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in these states.
We covered 13 districts of Madhya Pradesh spanning over 5 divisions of Chambal, Gwalior, Jabalpur, Sagar and Shadol), and . 12 districts of Chhattisgarh spanning over 3 divisions of Durg, Raipur and Bilaspur.
The objective was to observe the prevalent socio-economic conditions and assess the political mood of the people.
Without going into too much detail, I would like to share the following key observations and assessment with the readers.
Political assessment
(a)   BJP is likely to lose in the state of Chhattisgarh. The ruling party may lose a substantial chunk of tribal votes as well urban middle class votes in the state. Ajit Jogi led JCC and BSP may register decent vote share in select pockets. But Congress led by Bhupesh Baghel seems set for returning to power.
(b)   In Madhya Pradesh, the situation is complex. The certainty is that BJP will lose both vote share and seats from its 2013 position. A large number of seats may be decided with thin margin. At present all three scenarios are possible, viz., (i) BJP wins a simple majority; (ii) Congress wins a simple majority; and (iii) Both parties fall short of a simple majority.
If I have to bet money on election outcome, I will bet on scenario (ii) - Congress wining a simple majority.
(c)    There is definitely no Modi wave this time. In fact, many local candidates may prefer not to use Modi's pictures in their campaign material.
(d)   Shivraj Singh remains popular, but may suffer from anti incumbency of central government. Kamal Nath is most preferred CM candidate after Shivraj Singh.
Socio-economic assessment
(i)    Rural population is not in distress but quite discontented. No one is dying of hunger, but younger generation does not see future in farms and villages.
(ii)   The state of urban population is no different. There is no distress. But people in general are unhappy and agitated. The confidence in future growth and prosperity is low.
(iii)  Liquidity is poor. People have low cash and discretionary spending is lower. The pain of demonetization is still lingering.
(iv)   The people are agitated in general. The outbursts are spontaneous and frequent. The trust deficit is widening. The conditions are explosive. The good part is that administration recognizes this and hence response could be prompt. The bad part is there is little effort to diffuse the agitation. The ugly part is politicians are not averse to adding fuel to fire.
(v)    The concept of development has been trivialized brazenly. Normal maintenance effort like road widening, drainage cleaning, regular pick up of garbage, replacement of transformers, providing sever lines etc are sought to be passed on as good development. The whole development paradigm thus seems seriously malignant.

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