Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Be truly desperate

Some food for thought
"Even if a snake is not poisonous, it should pretend to be venomous."
—Chanakya (Indian Political philosopher, 350BC-275BC)
Word for the day
Librate (v)
To remain poised or balanced.
 
First random thought this morning
The popular narrative in past 2-3years has been revolving against the persons accused of financial impropriety in India, who have taken shelter in the foreign jurisdictions. Recently, the Vijay Mallya, Nirav Modi, and Mehul Choksi have been at the center of political slugfest as well as the joke factories of social media.
Now look at the irony.
The government agencies and BJP supporters are trying to build a perception that the incumbent government has tightened the compliance regime to the extent that the non-compliant are either falling in line or running away to safer jurisdictions.
The opposition parties are however pressing that the government is helping BJP cronies to escape the rule of law and take shelter in safer jurisdictions.
But the truth may be lying miles away from this popular perception. The truth is that the number of Indian rich seeking to settle in foreign jurisdiction is increasing exponentially. They are not necessarily seeking settlements in "easy" jurisdictions, but adopting strictly regulated jurisdictions like USA, Singapore, Australia, and UK. They are paying/investing millions of dollars to get permits to settle overseas. It is pertinent to note in this context that this year Indians have exhausted the quota permits granted under EB-5 program of USA, within no time.
Most of these aspiring immigrants are not necessarily non-compliant or violators of law. These may include honest and sincere businessmen and professionals disenchanted with the under delivery of government on various promises; or concerned about the safety of their daughters; and those refuse to buy certificate of patriotism religious faithfulness from ultra constitutional authorities.
Playing ostrich to this trend and drumming up the position on a questionable "Ease of Doing Business" index may not be much helpful, after all.
Chart of the Day

 

Be truly desperate

The conventional wisdom is that the "desperate time needs desperate measure!" With the general election 7months away, and still short on delivery, the government does look desperate in its disposition. Following the conventional wisdom, it is also taking some desperate measures. Abandoning the discipline on fuel pricing again (first it was done just ahead of Karnataka elections) and brazenly introducing direct subsidy burden of Rs1/ltr on oil marketing companies is one such measure. By this step, the government has—
(a)   Effectively killed the chances of any further private investment in fuel retailing;
(b)   shown total disregard for the interest of minority shareholders once again, and thus severely impeded the prospects of future private investment in public oil marketing companies; or any other public sector company. The disinvestment program may thus be reduced to a mere book entry business whereby cash rich PSUs are forced to buy the government's stake in other PSUs.
Moreover, the measure per se is too little and too late. A mere 2.5% rise in global crude prices could totally annul the relief in few days.
In the blockbuster Hindi movie DDLJ, the heroine is deeply in love with a guy against the wishes of her father. Her mother is afraid of her husband’s retribution and advises the two lovers to elope. But the hero, who is equanimous and noble, tells her that the path suggested by her appears easy but it would lead nowhere. He would rather prefer the path of courage, honesty and integrity which though arduous definitely leads to the desired goal.
Unlike our hero, our governments have historically preferred to take the easy road, even if it leads to destruction. First the transportation fuel was allowed to become an essential commodity for a large part of the population. Then it was taxed heavily. This is the easiest way to generate bulk revenue that could be used to sustain the social profligacy of the politician and maintain an inefficient and oversized government.
Unfortunately, the incumbent government that had assumed power on basis of the promise to implement a differentiated policy, also chose to tread the path to destruction followed by previous government, instead of staging a quick retreat to the starting point to the right path.
The right path, for example, in case of the fuel pricing would be as follows, in my view.
(a)   Accept that the Mother Nature has not given us enough hydrocarbon reserves, but she has given us plenty of sunshine and water. She obviously wanted us to use more of solar and hydel energy and minimal hydrocarbon fuels. Post independence following the Gandhian theory of self reliant village as the key economic unit, the government should have focused more on developing a large renewal energy base, world class public transport system and less water (and therefore less diesel) intensive crops, among other things.
(b)   The government must have treated hydrocarbons as a "luxury" and "sin consumption", just like tobacco and alcohol and taxed it more heavily; but earmarking the tax revenue for development of world class public transport infrastructure, mainly railways and trams, that could be run on very economical fares. This would have also saved lot of money that is spent on combating side effects of carbon pollution, e.g., spending on health etc.
The desperate measures, I would take today shall include (a) raising the price of petrol and diesel for personal vehicles to Rs200/ltr, raise public parking charges by 500% and make public bus service free and cut metro fare by 50%; (b) let fiscal deficit rise by Rs1trn, and add immediately to public transport system (AC buses, Metros, Trams etc.) and distribution of roof top solar panels free to farmers and households using DG for electricity.

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